MaineJayhawk Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 So for ****s and giggles what do you folks say the chances if given the following scenarios: 1. ORV (or west) 2. something similar to previous guidance straight up the Hudson River Valley 3. Coastal Hugger (and east) I'm thinking 1:60% 2:10% 3:30% 1. 20% 2. 70% 3. 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 So for ****s and giggles what do you folks say the chances if given the following scenarios: 1. ORV (or west) 2. something similar to previous guidance straight up the Hudson River Valley 3. Coastal Hugger (and east) I'm thinking 1:60% 2:10% 3:30% 1 .50% 2. 18% 3. 32.00000000000000000000000001% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 1 .50% 2. 18% 3. 32.00000000000000000000000001% lol ... I see what you did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 hudson valley track is very-unfavored as it usually cuts west as an apps runner or rides the coastal plain...just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The 18z ensembles took a step towards the ECMWF ensembles after 120 hours or so. Good.....like I said, that is our best bet...retrograde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 hudson valley track is very-unfavored as it usually cuts west as an apps runner or rides the coastal plain...just sayin NYC getting a blizzard, while we and Caribou, ME rain is very unfavored, but..... Don't doscount anything this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Guys, just stepped in and dont have time to read the pages. Looks like the mood has changed in here. Who can tell me whats new minus the humour or sarcasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 So for ****s and giggles what do you folks say the chances if given the following scenarios: 1. ORV (or west) 2. something similar to previous guidance straight up the Hudson River Valley 3. Coastal Hugger (and east) I'm thinking 1:60% 2:10% 3:30% 60 / 35 / 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 1 .50% 2. 18% 3. 32.00000000000000000000000001% ooooh you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Guys, just stepped in and dont have time to read the pages. Looks like the mood has changed in here. Who can tell me whats new minus the humour or sarcasm. EURO and to a slighter degree, the GFS have introduced the shot at some retrograde snow about 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Guys, just stepped in and dont have time to read the pages. Looks like the mood has changed in here. Who can tell me whats new minus the humour or sarcasm. The 18z GFS showed a highly unlikely freezing rain to 3-6'' snow storm for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 NYC getting a blizzard, while we and Caribou, ME rain is very unfavored, but..... Don't doscount anything this year. lol truee but I'm just saying that storms rarely track up the HV...of course its happened but I'd go... OV/MW-30% Apps cutter-35% HV-5% Coastal hugger and east-30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 well the 18 gfs was good Guys, just stepped in and dont have time to read the pages. Looks like the mood has changed in here. Who can tell me whats new minus the humour or sarcasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 lol truee but I'm just saying that storms rarely track up the HV...of course its happened but I'd go... OV/MW-30% Apps cutter-35% HV-5% Coastal hugger and east-30% Climo is a larger deterrent to a LC cutting through the Apps, than up the HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 EURO and to a slighter degree, the GFS have introduced the shot at some retrograde snow about 6 days out. Only 6 days out instead of 10? Sweet, were making progress! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 lol truee but I'm just saying that storms rarely track up the HV...of course its happened but I'd go... OV/MW-30% Apps cutter-35% HV-5% Coastal hugger and east-30% An Apps runner is extremely rare too...usually you'll see the storm pick a side. West of the apps or east. Rare do you get it riding up them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 4 days and still have no clue what is going to happen this is going to be one long winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 An Apps runner is extremely rare too...usually you'll see the storm pick a side. West of the apps or east. Rare do you get it riding up them. Exactly.....he seems to have an Apps fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 lol truee but I'm just saying that storms rarely track up the HV...of course its happened but I'd go... OV/MW-30% Apps cutter-35% HV-5% Coastal hugger and east-30% An apps cutter is probably the rarest of the listed scenarios. A storm is usually going to pick a side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I'm guessing the 18z GFS is crap from what I've read...would be nice to see some snow. TWC has a high of 17F for this Tuesday...ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 An Apps runner is extremely rare too...usually you'll see the storm pick a side. West of the apps or east. Rare do you get it riding up them. lol beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Guys, just stepped in and dont have time to read the pages. Looks like the mood has changed in here. Who can tell me whats new minus the humour or sarcasm. GFS/UK show promise for western NE/NY with Sunday/Monday EC sends it over Detroit 18z GFS has a prolonged wintry event for much of NE (esp interior) beginning on Sunday Tremendous Greenland block, cold temps and retrograding systems for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 GFS/UK show promise for western NE/NY with Sunday/Monday EC sends it over Detroit 18z GFS has a prolonged wintry event for much of NE (esp interior) beginning on Sunday Tremendous Greenland block, cold temps and retrograding systems for next week. It's a mess, Mike ... a g*ddamned fookin' mess and nobody can say for certain within 500 miles where it's going. Though I suspect the Rev and cardinal Pete know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It's a mess, Mike ... a g*ddamned fookin' mess and nobody can say for certain within 500 miles where it's going. Though I suspect the Rev and cardinal Pete know. I'm pretty confident that the primary is going beween W MA and Watertown, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 and now begins the long wait for the 00z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Well I think we can honestly say that either the GFS/Ukie or the Euro will have to make a move one way or the other, likely 00z tonight, otherwise one group is going to get... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I'm pretty confident that the primary is going beween W MA and Watertown, NY. I'm in that boat but I wouldn't bet Kevin's giraffe-print banana hammock on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Climo is a larger deterrent to a LC cutting through the Apps, than up the HV. And if there was a year where one would happen it would be this year, I don't know about you but i will be glad to have 2010 in the rearview mirror......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 the ggem ensemble mean is very far east.. coastal track. Way east of the OP. It's not just because it's an ensemble mean either, since the 00z ggem ensemble mean was a runner OH V--> nw NJ --> MWN. 12z is southern OH --> off NJ --> off CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 And if there was a year where one would happen it would be this year, I don't know about you but i will be glad to have 2010 in the rearview mirror......... I think everybody who frequents this subforum knows Ray's stance on 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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