weathafella Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I'm pretty confident that we are going to see at least one more retrograde scenario over the course of the next 2 weeks; that freak in the N ATL will ensure it. I think the retrograde has a much higher likelihood vs the wave up the front rescuing us from a 50F rainstorm and bringing a flash freeze with some snow Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 If it makes you feel any better you have no ptype issues with this run's depiction of it. lol .. I never have ptype issues at 200+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 lol .. I never have ptype issues at 200+ hours. On the GFS....no one above 35N does....lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The NAO block eventually migrates far enough west to hook up with the PAC/Kamchatka ridge...we even see a piece of the -NAO block end up over Hudson Bay...creating all sorts of potential for exotic solutions that Ray is dying to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I think the retrograde has a much higher likelihood vs the wave up the front rescuing us from a 50F rainstorm and bringing a flash freeze with some snow Monday. I agree.....one of these times we are going to get raped by a retrograder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The NAO block eventually migrates far enough west to hook up with the PAC/Kamchatka ridge...we even see a piece of the -NAO block end up over Hudson Bay...creating all sorts of potential for exotic solutions that Ray is dying to see. I agree.....one of these times we are going to get raped by a retrograder. As WE thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 At least theres some good agreement that it will snow, rain, sleet, or freezing rain, somewhere between Cleveland and Boston, at temperatures between 25 and 60F, on either Sunday or Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 At this point, I don't know if there is any model that you could take and run with right now........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I'm pretty confident that we are going to see at least one more retrograde scenario over the course of the next 2 weeks; that freak in the N ATL will ensure it. I'd give it another try... retrogrades have been very profitable here over the past two seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 This whole thread has been all weenie 101. In fact, an honorary Masters Degree is being given out to a select few. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I'd give it another try... retrogrades have been very profitable here over the past two seasons. Sooner or later, the Boston Common frisbee whores are going have to pay the piper and oh will I be overwhelmed with glee when that takes place; you can't have exotic soloutions this often and not see sne benefit.....once the cosmic dildo breaks, watch out....especially east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 This whole thread has been all weenie 101. In fact, an honorary Masters Degree is being given out to a select few. More waffles than Denny's. Hoping we have chaos all w/e so I can read here and laugh What will be great is if they waffle all the way to Sun 0Z so I can watch Ryan squirm as I have my coffee Sun morning,, hopefully he is working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I'd give it another try... retrogrades have been very profitable here over the past two seasons. You guys up that way have certainly benifited no doubt.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Man even the gfs ensembles have that little coastal low running up the coast, prior to the main low in the Tennessee valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 More waffles than Denny's. Hoping we have chaos all w/e so I can read here and laugh What will be great is if they waffle all the way to Sun 0Z so I can watch Ryan squirm as I have my coffee Sun morning,, hopefully he is working. I miss the good old days of clippers coming through with 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I miss the good old days of gang-ba**s coming through with 3-5 dudes at a clip. Interesting college experience, I guess..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I miss the good old days of clippers coming through with 3-5". I miss SWFEs...5-10'' N of the Pike...no more no less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Low goes from interior NC to Delmarva to Block Island on the ensemble mean it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Interesting college experience, I guess..... I'm offended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I'm offended. Go alert NJpissandmoan, or whatever in Sam hell his name is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Go alert NJpissandmoan, or whatever in Sam hell his name is. "The SNE forums are filled with nothing but deviants!" "I want weather info and I want it NOW!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It looks like it tries the secondary thing, especially northeast of Boston. There is a large area of space between isobars as you go into the Gulf of Maine and over Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I can't beleive how different the GFS ensemble mean and ECMWF ensemble mean are...its ridiculous for something near 100 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I can't beleive how different the GFS ensemble mean and ECMWF ensemble mean are...its ridiculous for something near 100 hours out. The 18z ensembles took a step towards the ECMWF ensembles after 120 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I can't beleive how different the GFS ensemble mean and ECMWF ensemble mean are...its ridiculous for something near 100 hours out. You did say you wanted to see how it handled big storms since its upgrade ... seems like a good test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 So for ****s and giggles what do you folks say the chances if given the following scenarios: 1. ORV (or west) 2. something similar to previous guidance straight up the Hudson River Valley 3. Coastal Hugger (and east) I'm thinking 1:60% 2:10% 3:30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The 18z ensembles took a step towards the ECMWF ensembles after 120 hours or so. Yeah, I'm becoming pretty confident there's going to be some retrograde action after the main storm, but the question is whether it will be far enough south to get us good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 So for ****s and giggles what do you folks say the chances if given the following scenarios: 1. ORV (or west) 2. something similar to previous guidance straight up the Hudson River Valley 3. Coastal Hugger (and east) I'm thinking 1:60% 2:10% 3:30% 1. 50 2. 30 3. 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Yeah, I'm becoming pretty confident there's going to be some retrograde action after the main storm, but the question is whether it will be far enough south to get us good. That's been a safe bet lately. I'm just amazed at all these retrograde solutions this year, but we haven't really cashed in on one, except for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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