Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I think the main differences this run were 1) the PV in canada is more dominating 2) the pacific is flatter and there is some weird interactions in the energy which split it in two no the gfs is just leading with the wrong energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 lol even toward hr 120, the energy in the trough gets strung out, and moisture and lift are still focused along a front offshore. We can't even buy good porn right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Well, We certainly no this 18z run can't be right it is showing snow for a lot of people.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 no the gfs is just leading with the wrong energy. Debbie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 no the gfs is just leading with the wrong energy. That's what I mean by #2.. there is some weird interaction out west which causes it to split and the northern piece of energy to run out ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Honestly if this isn't a study on why we should take these runs as fantasy I don't know what is. It is interesting to learn how a model evolves a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Seems that every run of every model does something that is in the realm of funky lately. This whole pattern is funky. I see what the gfs is doing, but I wouldn't pick up what it's throwing down right now...at least prior to the secondary wave. I'm just suspicious of the coastal low it wants to run up the coast after hr 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Debbie nah. i'd be more than happy to see a sub 980 low passing to my east, trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Well, it looks nice and all but I'm not going to do any high fives over this just yet. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 This whole pattern is funky. I see what the gfs is doing, but I wouldn't pick up what it's throwing down right now...at least prior to the secondary wave. I'm just suspicious of the coastal low it wants to run up the coast after hr 78. it has two spurious developments...the one on the coast and the one in the tennessee river valley...that ends up stringing everything along and when the big kahuna finally swings in the development is further offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I think the main differences this run were 1) the PV in canada is more dominating 2) the pacific is flatter and there is some weird interactions in the energy which split it in two There's no change with the PV in Canada. The only difference is its handling of the s/w energy digging into the central plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 There's no change with the PV in Canada. The only difference is its handling of the s/w energy digging into the central plains. Yes there is. The difference is very slight but you can see at Hr 72 for example heights are lower in MN/ND because the PV is pressing down. This creates some faster flow which shreds the northern leading s/w energy. This is also reflected at the surface as more high pressure bleeding in north of the storm in the GL and north of the GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 This is fun, model chaos, Wacky Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Odd ... Tip was accurate when he said everybody would flip over the 18z. What a prescient mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The GFS is almost 100% frozen in the interior...when 850s do get above freezing, its freezing rain there. Maybe just a brief period of 33F -RA, but it doesn't last long as the flash freeze and 2nd wave gives those several inches of snow. Its sad that I can't even really consider this solution as real at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Nice GFS run... cool, more snow. Verbatim looks like snow starts Sunday and ends on Tuesday night. I can't even think about it, having a 2 foot snowpack by December 14th would be nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Odd ... Tip was accurate when he said everybody would flip over the 18z. What a prescient mind. Yeah that was weird.. Jerry said it too when it was only out to 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Someone concocted this. Retrograde d9 as well. Crazy. A weenie theme park run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Yeah that was weird.. Jerry said it too when it was only out to 60. I had already seen it to 120 by then I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Yes there is. The difference is very slight but you can see at Hr 72 for example heights are lower in MN/ND because the PV is pressing down. This creates some faster flow which shreds the northern leading s/w energy. This is also reflected at the surface as more high pressure bleeding in north of the storm. meh I think it has very very little influence on the outcome of this run. I think that the models are handling the PV fine, and that it'll be pretty unchanging through the next few days of runs; just something we need to deal with. A big factor would be the clipper on Friday, but that is almost non-existent now to the point where one must ask, can it be even considered a factor anymore if there's nothing there lol And as we see in this run, the handling of the Pacific energy makes a huge difference, but 95% sure the 18z is flat out wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Someone concocted this. Retrograde d9 as well. Crazy. A weenie theme park run of the GFS. No thanks, I'll pass on that. Been bent over the wet bar too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 This means the 18z GEFS will be even farther east..American garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The greens are absolutely crushed. They get like 6" front end and then probably 1-2 feet upslope just like the last storm. That right there is a good reason why the model is wrong. We aren't that lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 No thanks, I'll pass on that. Been bent over the wet bar too many times. If it makes you feel any better you have no ptype issues with this run's depiction of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 This means the 18z GEFS will be even farther east..American garbage But if the means are east that means the op will go east which means the solution is east. weenie 101 duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Off for some brews then to Storrs for Uconn game..Peace in the middle east..I'm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Someone concocted this. Retrograde d9 as well. Crazy. A weenie theme park run of the GFS. I'm pretty confident that we are going to see at least one more retrograde scenario over the course of the next 2 weeks; that freak in the N ATL will ensure it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 This means the 18z GEFS will be even farther east..American garbage So the GFS is wrong and the Euro is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 But if the means are east that means the op will go east which means the solution is east. weenie 101 duh. This whole thread has been all weenie 101. In fact, an honorary Masters Degree is being given out to a select few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 So the GFS is wrong and the Euro is wrong. Odds are that both are wrong so you're probably right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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