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I have an idea - let's start a new talking points thread


Typhoon Tip

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We have been forgetting this is still 4-5 days away, even though the solutions have unanimously been bad for the last 48 hours.

Some of the GFS ensemble members have been splitting the storm in two like this.. now the OP is too.

We've also been seeing big changes run to run for the Euro even though they have all been bad.

I still have no hope except for the far interior, but a cutter to watertown is not a lock yet just because that's what the euro has.

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The key in this run is keeping some energy out in front, distinct from the main s/w. This knocks helps limit the uber ridge over the region, However, I think when models try to do this, their track record isn't too great. More often than not, there is one big storm, not two separate systems

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