ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 BOX is using the GENS Mean for the Sunday/Monday system. Maybe we should all go back and delete the pasted forecasts posts we put up earlier. The zone forecasts are almost useless when we are talking 5+ days out. Their AFD is much more useful to read...and its pretty similar to what many mets on here have been saying...brief snow/ice in the interior and then over to a rain event...and they do hit on the uncertainty aspect: A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY...PLACEMENT OF NORTHERN ATLANTIC BLOCKING AS WELL AS THE SURFACE TRACK OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. FOR NOW...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GEFS MEAN TRACK WHICH BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. USED A BLEND OF MOSGUIDE...HPC AND ECMWF GUIDANCE TO ACCOMPLISH THIS. A FAIRLY POTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE EXACT FOCUS AREA WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HAVE CHANCE POPS BEGINNING SUNDAY...INCREASING TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS A MIX ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF WITHOUT THE AVAILABILITY OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE A RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 The zone forecasts are almost useless when we are talking 5+ days out. Their AFD is much more useful to read...and its pretty similar to what many mets on here have been saying...brief snow/ice in the interior and then over to a rain event...and they do hit on the uncertainty aspect: A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY...PLACEMENT OF NORTHERN ATLANTIC BLOCKING AS WELL AS THE SURFACE TRACK OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. FOR NOW...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GEFS MEAN TRACK WHICH BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. USED A BLEND OF MOSGUIDE...HPC AND ECMWF GUIDANCE TO ACCOMPLISH THIS. A FAIRLY POTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE EXACT FOCUS AREA WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HAVE CHANCE POPS BEGINNING SUNDAY...INCREASING TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS A MIX ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF WITHOUT THE AVAILABILITY OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE A RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED. Will ... you didn't get the memo - we are in a teasing Kevin session Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 man, you guys are going to flip when you see the 18z GFS lol why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Will ... you didn't get the memo - we are in a teasing Kevin session The thing is...you want snow more than i do..It's why you have 30 nooses at the ready tied to the rarfters in your attic. Pick a noose...any noose..and climb up...tip the chair...and.................................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 lol why is that? I have no idea , I just know that what ever it shows, people are going to flip out - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 lol why is that? Maybe he just felt like penning a teaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 This might sum it up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 This might sum it up: I have my eye on the hvy rain in the PAC NW. Maybe 12/16-18 we'll cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 man, you guys are going to flip when you see the 18z DGEX Western ct love, thanks tippy for pointing that out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Welp, they just issued the point-and-click update for Tolland, CT Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Sunday: Waste of time likely. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of no good for no one is 110%. Sunday Night: Pounded by the cosmic dildo with a reach around series of vicious face smackings. Low around 33. Chance of eerie dark irony misery coming true 90%. Monday: Rain and bullcrap likely as the cosmic dildo comes back for sloppy 2nds. Mostly cloudy, with a high near puke. Chance of additional torment 60%. Monday Night: Crap, with a low around 10. Tuesday: Partly ****tey, with a high near pointless cold. Tuesday Night: Partly ****tey, with a low around even more pointless cold. Wednesday: Partly sunny and breezy, with a high near ah who the f cares! :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Forgot to mention earlier that i did my part today by challenging the snow gods and sending my snow blower off to the shop for a couple of days for some minor repairs. I figure surely that will guarantee accumulating snow on sun/mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Well the GFS is shall we say...."interesting" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 This might sum it up: At least we aren't in a "Severe Drought" lol wow, how does this thread have 35 pages already? (it was started like 24hrs ago, you'd think a blizzard was about to hit, not a rainstorm) If you want snow and have this weekend off... come north, we've got the good stuff that you're looking for. It might not be as good as the crack, err snow, that you can get in the big cities, but it'll do in a pinch when you're jonesing hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 the 18z gfs is east of the 12z, could be better for the greens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I have my eye on the hvy rain in the PAC NW. Maybe 12/16-18 we'll cash in. There are some signs around the 18-20th or so of a storm. I think your elephant will eventually circulate more seasonal air around here before then, but hopefully not too mild. After that, it looks like things relax, both on the Pacific side and perhaps Atlantic side, and maybe some of the cold in western Canada comes se. At least, that's how it looks for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 GFS has me staying at work instead of going to the gym wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Well the GFS is shall we say...."interesting" This is an 18z run of the GFS. By law, it is not even to be weighed within 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Well the 18z GFS is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 This is an 18z run of the GFS. By law, it is not even to be weighed within 2 days. party pooper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Anatevka lives on GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 GFS has me staying at work instead of going to the gym wtf You're going to die no matter what, and it's not going to snow. Go get ripped so at least when you kick, you'll look good doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 GFS has me staying at work instead of going to the gym wtf LOL, just go...they'll be many more opportunities coming up for you to skip it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It has a secondary forming over HAT already at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Looks like the standard GFS blip that pulls everyone's interest back in -- a classic step in the maturing of a storm on model forecasts ... just my take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 party pooper I can't hear you because I'm busy accepting the Euro in every single one of my orifices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friendwh Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Well the GFS is shall we say...."interesting" continues to weaken the pacific s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The gfs really digs the s/w energy to the south, spawning a secondary east of ORH at hr 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Well the 18z GFS should bring back some false hope of a significant frozen event for the interior. I'm not buying it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 HUGE shift east still rain on the shore though it's sort of breaking it up into two waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Heavy heavy picquing interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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