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I have an idea - let's start a new talking points thread


Typhoon Tip

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The surface low might be close...but the evolution is pretty far different IMO...no other guidance closes off at 500mb over the midwest. The Euro gained more separation from the PV...but it decided to go negative and stack the southern shortwave anyway.

Perhaps in light of other guidance the euro is seperating itself from the Polar vortex more.....and just exaggerating the southern short wave closing it off and we got a burb.

I'll be looking to see if other guidance trends toward closing the S. shortwave off earlier. i guess.

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65-70 with dews in the low 60's and damaging winds in mid December with a west based -NAO?

Its not a west based -NAO...we have a UK block way out east as this storm first starts amplifying. We've alreayd lost our big NAO block as we speak...its all east right now. We missed our golden chance with a west based block this past 4 or 5 days.

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I want this to go negative like hell...it wants to develop another wave near the BM!

Yes, that is what I was talking about earlier that if the EURO brought the primary that far west, it would be the frontal wave that develops around hours 144-168 would be further west and not so far offshore. I would like to see consistency in this storm though before I get too excited. I would take potential for severe storms, over plain rain and 40f.

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How many more lows are going to back in on New England? We've had more lows back in on us, then the usual track west of us or underneath us.

it's ridiculous. i feel like i'm watching the same output over and over again. the advantage to this one, is at least the ULL is south of our latitude.

ec actually has +4C air way up in N canada

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We don't want to see the EURO only showing us this solution. Problem is it won't be that negative and the h5 low won't be this far south where the low retrogrades into New England. So the middle road would be the GGEM with this period. Rain on Sunday/Monday and offshore storm on Tuesday/Wednesday with cold and dry weather in place.

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That secondary vort below the main PV in Canada clearly visible from 72 hours over northern ALB/SASK and then 96 over International Falls is suspicious if you ask me...that may be what is causing the early major phase.

gonna be fun to hear from ensembles

and tonite's run as well. its not over....i think the euro latches on at D (3.5) lol

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