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I have an idea - let's start a new talking points thread


Typhoon Tip

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10 mm or so for you it appears.

Most of the precip in your area is rain with this run...but still get 4" of snow after changeover?

Central and Eastern NY gets about 18" of snow

Sounds about right given the track. Probably a nice snowstorm for Litchfield Hills and the Berkshires too.

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Right even in the UKMET scenario...it doesn't really change over for central Mass and Western CT until the low is about due south of Montauk..when when winds turn more northerly at the surface between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday. That southeasterly push of warm air early in the storm evolution is pretty strong.

Right, with the departing clipper system weakening as it rotates NE, there's pretty much nothing to hold back the ridging downstream of the storm on Monday, and no UL confluence to speak of to help support higher SLP to our north. So there's zero mechanism to slow or deform the wicked intense southerly flow slamming into New England.

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I want to hone an aspect to this period Sunday -Wednesday ...

The NAO is really powerfully resurging as this system evolves/translates through. The bevvy of guidance all demonstrated that. But what this does sensibly for our weather is [probably] causes a lull as the system shears up the western wall of the NAO ridge, and with the deep layer vortex closure, either a new low, or a part of the vestigial circulation will back down SW and bring the potential of persistent light snow with moderate bursts through all of central and northern New England, perhaps as far SW as NYC --ISP latittude. That retrograde seems almost higher confidence then the systems initial assult actually.

This could be a harsh period folks. Sub -15C type 850 air in a well mixed sounding to the surface with winds averaging 30 kts over many hours, with steady light snow can take tolls on people.

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was that the system that redeveloped to our south and produced a short but intense backlash over eastern MA into the evening? I remember driving home on 495 in true blizzard conditions.

I think that was the flash freeze where temperatures were around 60 early in the day and then dropped like a rock to around 30 with heavy snow squalls. I was in Florida though. :axe:

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I want to hone an aspect to this period Sunday -Wednesday ...

The NAO is really powerfully resurging as this system evolves/translates through. The bevvy of guidance all demonstrated that. But what this does sensibly for our weather is [probably] causes a lull as the system shears up the western wall of the NAO ridge, and with the deep layer vortex closure, either a new low, or a part of the vestigial circulation will back down SW and bring the potential of persistent light snow with moderate bursts through all of central and northern New England, perhaps as far SW as NYC --ISP latittude. That retrograde seems almost higher confidence then the systems initial assult actually.

This could be a harsh period folks. Sub -15C type 850 air in a well mixed sounding to the surface with winds averaging 30 kts over many hours, with steady light snow can take tolls on people.

assuming this thing ends up being mainly liquid, i at least hope we get the best pressure fall/rise to pass overhead. with the arctic feeding into the backside of this system, not hard to envision a 20 to 25F temp drop in C / E SNE in a rather short period of time accompanied by 45 knot gusts.

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I wonder what Ray would do if the low bombs out moving north giving DCA-PHL snow, while he's 48 and rain.

I doub it......but I gave up on this a few days ago, anyway.

Hopefully I'm made a fool of, but I don't by this last minute shred of hope in the least.....the EURO will be a HV runner.

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John, do the 850mb to surface winds align enough out of the north, or even north-northeast for OES during this period?

No, actually ... These retrograde scenarios actually are wrap-arounders and the winds are NW ...sometimes even WNW with bands of snow pivoting down from the N...

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I doub it......but I gave up on this a few days ago, anyway.

Hopefully I'm made a fool of, but I don't by this last minute shred of hope in the least.....the EURO will be a HV runner.

Agreed for the most part. I don't think there's much room for the significant changes that we would need. Just minor shifting ahead, that will still manage to keep a select group of weenies on their toes.

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I want to hone an aspect to this period Sunday -Wednesday ...

The NAO is really powerfully resurging as this system evolves/translates through. The bevvy of guidance all demonstrated that. But what this does sensibly for our weather is [probably] causes a lull as the system shears up the western wall of the NAO ridge, and with the deep layer vortex closure, either a new low, or a part of the vestigial circulation will back down SW and bring the potential of persistent light snow with moderate bursts through all of central and northern New England, perhaps as far SW as NYC --ISP latittude. That retrograde seems almost higher confidence then the systems initial assult actually.

This could be a harsh period folks. Sub -15C type 850 air in a well mixed sounding to the surface with winds averaging 30 kts over many hours, with steady light snow can take tolls on people.

Hmmm, Jay Peak beckons. Although did this once before only to be greeted with 50mph winds and base temp of -17F. Talk about a wasted drive.

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