CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 was that the system that redeveloped to our south and produced a short but intense backlash over eastern MA into the evening? I remember driving home on 495 in true blizzard conditions. Yeah we were warm in far eastern areas, and then all hell broke loose for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 i think it's probably moot. For you most definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 10 mm or so for you it appears. Most of the precip in your area is rain with this run...but still get 4" of snow after changeover? Central and Eastern NY gets about 18" of snow Sounds about right given the track. Probably a nice snowstorm for Litchfield Hills and the Berkshires too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 10 mm or so for you it appears. Most of the precip in your area is rain with this run...but still get 4" of snow after changeover? Central and Eastern NY gets about 18" of snow I will certainly take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 For you most definitely. well absolutely. ...though probably for about 95% of the region too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Radio show anybody??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Sounds about right given the track. Probably a nice snowstorm for Litchfield Hills and the Berkshires too. For sure...I don't think Pete changes over at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I'll be pissed if I leave home sunday, come back to a driving rain at school and have to walk to finals in it while my house is getting buried in a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It's certainly a bomb alright. GFS is 975mb over DXR basically lol. Just gotta get that bomb over FMH or better yet CHH. It's going to take a lot because we're not getting any help up north but maybe we can thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Right even in the UKMET scenario...it doesn't really change over for central Mass and Western CT until the low is about due south of Montauk..when when winds turn more northerly at the surface between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday. That southeasterly push of warm air early in the storm evolution is pretty strong. Right, with the departing clipper system weakening as it rotates NE, there's pretty much nothing to hold back the ridging downstream of the storm on Monday, and no UL confluence to speak of to help support higher SLP to our north. So there's zero mechanism to slow or deform the wicked intense southerly flow slamming into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 I want to hone an aspect to this period Sunday -Wednesday ... The NAO is really powerfully resurging as this system evolves/translates through. The bevvy of guidance all demonstrated that. But what this does sensibly for our weather is [probably] causes a lull as the system shears up the western wall of the NAO ridge, and with the deep layer vortex closure, either a new low, or a part of the vestigial circulation will back down SW and bring the potential of persistent light snow with moderate bursts through all of central and northern New England, perhaps as far SW as NYC --ISP latittude. That retrograde seems almost higher confidence then the systems initial assult actually. This could be a harsh period folks. Sub -15C type 850 air in a well mixed sounding to the surface with winds averaging 30 kts over many hours, with steady light snow can take tolls on people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 was that the system that redeveloped to our south and produced a short but intense backlash over eastern MA into the evening? I remember driving home on 495 in true blizzard conditions. I think that was the flash freeze where temperatures were around 60 early in the day and then dropped like a rock to around 30 with heavy snow squalls. I was in Florida though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 John, do the 850mb to surface winds align enough out of the north, or even north-northeast for OES during this period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I want to hone an aspect to this period Sunday -Wednesday ... The NAO is really powerfully resurging as this system evolves/translates through. The bevvy of guidance all demonstrated that. But what this does sensibly for our weather is [probably] causes a lull as the system shears up the western wall of the NAO ridge, and with the deep layer vortex closure, either a new low, or a part of the vestigial circulation will back down SW and bring the potential of persistent light snow with moderate bursts through all of central and northern New England, perhaps as far SW as NYC --ISP latittude. That retrograde seems almost higher confidence then the systems initial assult actually. This could be a harsh period folks. Sub -15C type 850 air in a well mixed sounding to the surface with winds averaging 30 kts over many hours, with steady light snow can take tolls on people. assuming this thing ends up being mainly liquid, i at least hope we get the best pressure fall/rise to pass overhead. with the arctic feeding into the backside of this system, not hard to envision a 20 to 25F temp drop in C / E SNE in a rather short period of time accompanied by 45 knot gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I wonder what Ray would do if the low bombs out moving north giving DCA-PHL snow, while he's 48 and rain. I doub it......but I gave up on this a few days ago, anyway. Hopefully I'm made a fool of, but I don't by this last minute shred of hope in the least.....the EURO will be a HV runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Here comes a classic post from Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Here comes a classic post from Ray. Hopefully we can will a LES belt HECS into existence....they could use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 For sure...I don't think Pete changes over at all. I'd take a nice 3-6 thumper like the Ukie implies here after the chageover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 John, do the 850mb to surface winds align enough out of the north, or even north-northeast for OES during this period? No, actually ... These retrograde scenarios actually are wrap-arounders and the winds are NW ...sometimes even WNW with bands of snow pivoting down from the N... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 No, actually ... These retrograde scenarios actually are wrap-arounders and the winds are NW ...sometimes even WNW with bands of snow pivoting down from the N... What would the scenario need to be for Cape Cod, MA to even have remotely decent chance at OES for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I doub it......but I gave up on this a few days ago, anyway. Hopefully I'm made a fool of, but I don't by this last minute shred of hope in the least.....the EURO will be a HV runner. Agreed for the most part. I don't think there's much room for the significant changes that we would need. Just minor shifting ahead, that will still manage to keep a select group of weenies on their toes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The 12z Euro has started!!! Kevin or Ray... any predictions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 models are treding the right way, now lets see what Euro does, off to lunch and back to check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 What would the scenario need to be for Cape Cod, MA to even have remotely decent chance at OES for next week? Actually the outer Cape can cash-in on NW frigid air... NNW would be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 The 12z Euro has started!!! Kevin or Ray... any predictions? haha dude you're bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The 12z Euro has started!!! Kevin or Ray... any predictions? Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I want to hone an aspect to this period Sunday -Wednesday ... The NAO is really powerfully resurging as this system evolves/translates through. The bevvy of guidance all demonstrated that. But what this does sensibly for our weather is [probably] causes a lull as the system shears up the western wall of the NAO ridge, and with the deep layer vortex closure, either a new low, or a part of the vestigial circulation will back down SW and bring the potential of persistent light snow with moderate bursts through all of central and northern New England, perhaps as far SW as NYC --ISP latittude. That retrograde seems almost higher confidence then the systems initial assult actually. This could be a harsh period folks. Sub -15C type 850 air in a well mixed sounding to the surface with winds averaging 30 kts over many hours, with steady light snow can take tolls on people. Hmmm, Jay Peak beckons. Although did this once before only to be greeted with 50mph winds and base temp of -17F. Talk about a wasted drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The 12z Euro has started!!! Kevin or Ray... any predictions? HV runner with rather meek 2ndary development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The 12z Euro has started!!! Kevin or Ray... any predictions? Another slight east shift like 00z but still not enugh.but still having the 2nd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 56" of snow at SYR over the last four days. That's impressive considering they aren't even in the snowbelt area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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