I have an idea - let's start a new talking points thread

[Typhoon Tip]

We have been saying this for days off and on but you should really try to hone this point home; the dynamics for these systems are still out over the relative data sparse domain of the Pacific; it more likely there will be limited consensus until it is thoroughly relayed over land.

I wouldn't panic just yet, although I understand that you would rather not have to wait for a dreamy model solution. Fact of the matter is, none of the points of that discussion are invalidated because of the 12z Euro not sitting will with the collective hopes and aspirations of this forum. In fact, I even mentioned near the end that we would have to watch for stream phasing in this; I just think it ironic that as soon as I publihsed this thing almost immediately the next model cycles started showing that

Just be patient. Too much grousing

One other thing, I find it interesting that the UKMET, with it's long standing meridional bias for middle range and beyond, is one of the most E solutions.

Lastly for now ... we are still going to be overall in a stormy colder than normal patter through the end of the month - that much is a virtual certainty. If we get some festive flurries or even a band of light snow through the area over the weekend, a mix-->rain-->flurries event, there will be other opportunities in this regime.

[Ginx snewx]

We have been saying this for days off and on but you should really try to hone this point home; the dynamics for these systems are still out over the relative data sparse domain of the Pacific; it more likely there will be limited consensus until it is thoroughly relayed over land.

I wouldn't panic just yet, although I understand that you would rather not have to wait for a dreamy model solution. Fact of the matter is, none of the points of that discussion are invalidated because of the 12z Euro not sitting will with the collective hopes and aspirations of this forum. In fact, I even mentioned near the end that we would have to watch for stream phasing in this; I just think it ironic that as soon as I publihsed this thing almost immediately the next model cycles started showing that

Just be patient. Too much grousing

One other thing, I find it interesting that the UKMET, with it's long standing meridional bias for middle range and beyond, is one of the most E solutions.

Lastly for now ... we are still going to be overall in a stormy colder than normal patter through the end of the month - that much is a virtual certainty. If we get some festive flurries or even a band of light snow through the area over the weekend, a mix-->rain-->flurries event, there will be other opportunities in this regime.

Yep violently agree, sanity is not common on this board. Kev was just found on an ice flow in the CT river. I like the pattern to churn up a good moderate event when least expected, ask Montreal how the Euro did with their 16 new while Enviro Canada was caught stroking their weenies. Not concerned, good post.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The uncertainties in the pattern are at least enough to keep it interesting.

Which is great for me and other weenies to learn what we can from all the different posts from those who are more knowledgeable.

At least we are not seeing long warm, dry stretches on the model runs.

[ORH_wxman]

We'll need to see a significant difference in the PV interaction with our main s/w over the next 24-36 hours if we are to keep a more wintry appeal to Sunday night/Monday's storm.

Its trending the wrong direction. Obviously we can see it trend back...anyone remember the huge Ohio Valley/Lakes HECS that all models were showing prior to Feb 3-4, 2009? That one was originally an EC storm about 8 days out, then by 120 hour out, it was a "certain" apps cutter....then it ended up being so far offshore only giving us an inverted trough with 2-5" of cold powdery snow. The transformation literally happened in 2 model runs...went from a wrapped up storm over ROC to offshore.

My money would still be on the warmer solution at the moment, but that example was just one of many to point out how things can change quite drastically when dealing beyond 100 hours. I believe that was a similar situation involving the phasing of the arctic jet.

[HoarfrostHubb]

We have been saying this for days off and on but you should really try to hone this point home; the dynamics for these systems are still out over the relative data sparse domain of the Pacific; it more likely there will be limited consensus until it is thoroughly relayed over land.

I wouldn't panic just yet, although I understand that you would rather not have to wait for a dreamy model solution. Fact of the matter is, none of the points of that discussion are invalidated because of the 12z Euro not sitting will with the collective hopes and aspirations of this forum. In fact, I even mentioned near the end that we would have to watch for stream phasing in this; I just think it ironic that as soon as I publihsed this thing almost immediately the next model cycles started showing that

Just be patient. Too much grousing

One other thing, I find it interesting that the UKMET, with it's long standing meridional bias for middle range and beyond, is one of the most E solutions.

Lastly for now ... we are still going to be overall in a stormy colder than normal patter through the end of the month - that much is a virtual certainty. If we get some festive flurries or even a band of light snow through the area over the weekend, a mix-->rain-->flurries event, there will be other opportunities in this regime.

So, until something makes it over CONUS, or therabouts, modelling really can't in general be that reliable? That gives, what 72-96 hours of decent data collection/analysis?

[Typhoon Tip]

So, until something makes it over CONUS, or therabouts, modelling really can't in general be that reliable? That gives, what 72-96 hours of decent data collection/analysis?

Pretty much - yes. Alhtough, it depends on the flow... A real steep high amplitude positive PNA - believe it or not - one can do better because the flow is not emanating from off the Pacific.

Will - understood about the interaction with the PV or PV fragmentation - that interaction is very very difficult to assess, as you also alluded via the 2009 example. Also, notice that the variations really came into play when that came onshore in the W.

Anyway, for those that really allow their mood to be guided by this stuff ...I really think you are not doing so bad if it cuts next week; too much rife potential through Jan 1 in my assessment to care about 1 system in what is probably going to be 3 or 4 to contend with in that period time. Also, keep in mind that these westerly solutions are actually signalling a potential live burying of the area with yard stick of snow as this closes off the bottom and lingers UNDER out latitude in a few of those runs. I haven't mentioned it because it is laughable looking, but hey ...with the -NAO surging back into westerly-based prominense, if there is a closing vortex near the NE coast ...guess what, it ain't going no where.

[Ginx snewx]

Pretty much - yes. Alhtough, it depends on the flow... A real steep high amplitude positive PNA - believe it or not - one can do better because the flow is not emanating from off the Pacific.

Will - understood about the interaction with the PV or PV fragmentation - that interaction is very very difficult to assess, as you also alluded via the 2009 example. Also, notice that the variations really came into play when that came onshore in the W.

Anyway, for those that really allow their mood to be guided by this stuff ...I really think you are not doing so bad if it cuts next week; too much rife potential through Jan 1 in my assessment to care about 1 system in what is probably going to be 3 or 4 to contend with in that period time. Also, keep in mind that these westerly solutions are actually signalling a potential live burying of the area with yard stick of snow as this closes off the bottom and lingers UNDER out latitude in a few of those runs. I haven't mentioned it because it is laughable looking, but hey ...with the -NAO surging back into westerly-based prominense, if there is a closing vortex near the NE coast ...guess what, it ain't going no where.

The consistency of the models with the record block with an ULL stuck under or nearby is encouraging no matter what happens with the initial storm.

[OKpowdah]

The energy feeding our clipper system Friday night is only about 12-18 hours from BC, which has proved t o be a significant factor in the final outcome of the Sunday night - Monday storm. Otherwise, the huge PV forming over north central Canada looks like it may overpower most other factors.

We'll need to see a significant difference in the PV interaction with our main s/w over the next 24-36 hours if we are to keep a more wintry appeal to Sunday night/Monday's storm.

Its trending the wrong direction. Obviously we can see it trend back...anyone remember the huge Ohio Valley/Lakes HECS that all models were showing prior to Feb 3-4, 2009? That one was originally an EC storm about 8 days out, then by 120 hour out, it was a "certain" apps cutter....then it ended up being so far offshore only giving us an inverted trough with 2-5" of cold powdery snow. The transformation literally happened in 2 model runs...went from a wrapped up storm over ROC to offshore.

My money would still be on the warmer solution at the moment, but that example was just one of many to point out how things can change quite drastically when dealing beyond 100 hours. I believe that was a similar situation involving the phasing of the arctic jet.

For some reason that storm has really stuck with me! lol I still have a number of model runs saved. I think it was the most interesting non-event I've ever tracked haha. There was also that short period 60 hours out when the NAM and GFS suddenly brought it back to life as a big hit for SNE. That was also the last time people were jumping on the NGM train before it was decomissioned.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

Great post TyphoonTip. Always admire your knowledge and your posts. Thanks. In such a pattern one needs to keep level minded as the models will change in the 100+ hour range. It seems that the southern jet impulse over OK/AR right now is actually looking slower to move through the flow. The potential interaction or lack thereof with the clipper energy will have a big impact on the path of the second storm, If somehow the clipper can break away from the arctic jet and into the Midwest and amplify maybe we have a chance at the models coming southeast with the big storm. However I am leaning towards the track of a warmer solution in which the storm cuts through the I95 corridor. Rain will be most likely for the coastal plain.

[OKpowdah]

I think Tip had one of his famous historic potential threads on the Feb 2009 storm also

btw, not criticizing you at all John; I know it's not a forecast. You have a way of presenting the positive possibilities

[cpickett79]

wtf is that spin .....coming up from the N. florida coast that hits us prior to the low swinging thru on the 18z gfs

[OKpowdah]

wtf is that spin .....coming up from the N. florida coast that hits us prior to the low swinging thru on the 18z gfs

Looks like it is a low level disturbance left behind from that s/w diving into Texas right now

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

Looks like it is a low level disturbance left behind from that s/w diving into Texas right now

Sam, that shortwave diving into TX looks more amplified. What do you think about this system? Any potential impacts to the forecast.

[ski MRG]

We have been saying this for days off and on but you should really try to hone this point home; the dynamics for these systems are still out over the relative data sparse domain of the Pacific; it more likely there will be limited consensus until it is thoroughly relayed over land.

I wouldn't panic just yet, although I understand that you would rather not have to wait for a dreamy model solution. Fact of the matter is, none of the points of that discussion are invalidated because of the 12z Euro not sitting will with the collective hopes and aspirations of this forum. In fact, I even mentioned near the end that we would have to watch for stream phasing in this; I just think it ironic that as soon as I publihsed this thing almost immediately the next model cycles started showing that

Just be patient. Too much grousing

One other thing, I find it interesting that the UKMET, with it's long standing meridional bias for middle range and beyond, is one of the most E solutions.

Lastly for now ... we are still going to be overall in a stormy colder than normal patter through the end of the month - that much is a virtual certainty. If we get some festive flurries or even a band of light snow through the area over the weekend, a mix-->rain-->flurries event, there will be other opportunities in this regime.

Thanks John.

[ORH_wxman]

Its really amazing to see just how far off the 18z GFS Ensemble mean is compared to a solution like the 12z ECMWF which cuts the low near Detroit to the St. Lawrence river valley.

I cannot help but to think the GFS ensemble will fall flat on its face here. But its interesting that its TREND has reversed from a few runs ago and has now started creeping back east. Meanwhile the Euro ensemble mean is east of its OP run too, but still well west of the GEFS, cutting up the Hudson River Valley.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Maybe the trend can continue on the Euro

Ukie favorable attm?

[Damage In Tolland]

Its really amazing to see just how far off the 18z GFS Ensemble mean is compared to a solution like the 12z ECMWF which cuts the low near Detroit to the St. Lawrence river valley.

I cannot help but to think the GFS ensemble will fall flat on its face here. But its interesting that its TREND has reversed from a few runs ago and has now started creeping back east. Meanwhile the Euro ensemble mean is east of its OP run too, but still well west of the GEFS, cutting up the Hudson River Valley.

Probably a case of garbage in garbage out I think someone yesterday said GEFS are always too far east

[Typhoon Tip]

I'll tell you what Will ...I'm toying with the straight up compromise between the GFS/Euro ensemble means.

The Euro operational being the West outlier of its own camp doesn't bode well for that run actually

"Feels" like a tripple point under, primary over routine, with snow-mix-gunk/rains, ending as wind whipped freezing drizzle and flurries in crashing temps on underbelly winds. ...obviously, whiter west is best.

I don't believe a flat progressive +PNAP risge out west prefers such an intercontinental placement.

[ORH_wxman]

I'll tell you what Will ...I'm toying with the straight up compromise between the GFS/Euro ensemble means.

The Euro operational being the West outlier of its own camp doesn't bode well for that run actually

"Feels" like a tripple point under, primary over routine, with snow-mix-gunk/rains, ending as wind whipped freezing drizzle and flurries in crashing temps on underbelly winds. ...obviously, whiter west is best.

I don't believe a flat progressive +PNAP risge out west prefers such an intercontinental placement.

I think the triple point underneath definitely still has some merit...in fact its something that usually shows up as we get closer after model initially show a full cyclone west of the region. I do think chances of the main low center going under us though are becoming quite slim...but given the time frame, its obviously still too early ot jump to that conclusion for sure.

[Typhoon Tip]

Hey guys ...does anyone have a link that has the on-going linear comparison of model performance among the Global numerical models??

Google's not turnin' out the goods

[MaineJayhawk]

So, until something makes it over CONUS, or therabouts, modelling really can't in general be that reliable? That gives, what 72-96 hours of decent data collection/analysis?

This is a case of Who Do You Want To Believe as a different met here in this very subforum has said that the idea of poor data fields over the Pacific is fallacy.

[ORH_wxman]

Hey guys ...does anyone have a link that has the on-going linear comparison of model performance among the Global numerical models??

Google's not turnin' out the goods

Here is the day 5 and day 6 hemispheric 500mb scores.

Day 5:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz5.html

day 6:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz6.html

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm asking because I was told by a fellow Met that the GFS was doing remarkably better than prior to June's release of the new product - I even heard it was comparable to the ECM at D5! I just was hoping we could prove it here - I know I've seen the product a hundred times bet never book marked it - damn

[Edit: thx Will!]

[Tropopause_Fold]

I'm asking because I was told by a fellow Met that the GFS was doing remarkably better than prior to June's release of the new product - I even heard it was comparable to the ECM at D5! I just was hoping we could prove it here - I know I've seen the product a hundred times bet never book marked it - damn

[Edit: thx Will!]

it's shown some improvement but it still trails the ec. i don't know how anything can't trail the ec given T1279(!)

[Logan11]

I seem to recall a somewhat analogous event back around the tale end of October or first part of November. By that I mean it was an event where some models wanted to phase it well west, but in the end the more southerly vort lagged and the perfect phase was not achieved until further along. It ended up taking more of a coastal track, but it was just too early for snow in most places (except maybe 2500'+). Now this is Mid December so gotta root on something like that. 18Z GFS seemed to be heading that way*...tho not good enough yet for places from the HV east.

* I know the 18z GFS could be on crack ...0Z could be over BUF.

We'll need to see a significant difference in the PV interaction with our main s/w over the next 24-36 hours if we are to keep a more wintry appeal to Sunday night/Monday's storm.

Its trending the wrong direction. Obviously we can see it trend back...anyone remember the huge Ohio Valley/Lakes HECS that all models were showing prior to Feb 3-4, 2009? That one was originally an EC storm about 8 days out, then by 120 hour out, it was a "certain" apps cutter....then it ended up being so far offshore only giving us an inverted trough with 2-5" of cold powdery snow. The transformation literally happened in 2 model runs...went from a wrapped up storm over ROC to offshore.

My money would still be on the warmer solution at the moment, but that example was just one of many to point out how things can change quite drastically when dealing beyond 100 hours. I believe that was a similar situation involving the phasing of the arctic jet.

[ORH_wxman]

it's shown some improvement but it still trails the ec. i don't know how anything can't trail the ec given T1279(!)

We'll see how the GFS performs when the stakes are high. I think some of its biases were extra glaring during larger storms. When I did my presentation at the EUSwx conference this past summer, I showed the GFS verification scores from December, January and February...and guess what, the times it got its azz absolutely walloped? The 4 HECS.

This winter will be a good test when we have larger events...see if it can shed its reputation of getting killed in the high stakes games.

[Typhoon Tip]

This is a case of Who Do You Want To Believe as a different met here in this very subforum has said that the idea of poor data fields over the Pacific is fallacy.

Mm, that's what the modelers at NCEP state, too.

Data assimilation is better than nothing, and that is what backs the claim that sparseness is no longer an issue. ...But it doesn't make the notion that systems tend to morph with greater frequency upon entering the N/A domain space more than prior or after, incorrect - if the cause is not assimilation, give us another reason.

"Sparse" may be fallacy, but it [probably] comes down to quality of the data.

[cpickett79]

We'll see how the GFS performs when the stakes are high. I think some of its biases were extra glaring during larger storms. When I did my presentation at the EUSwx conference this past summer, I showed the GFS verification scores from December, January and February...and guess what, the times it got its azz absolutely walloped? The 4 HECS.

This winter will be a good test when we have larger events...see if it can shed its reputation of getting killed in the high stakes games.

will how did the UKIE do last D/J/F

right now it appears we have GFS Ensembles & 12z UKIE trending east VS. a somewhat consistent Dr. NO at D6. we got time for a snow ice to snow for the interior....esp distant interior.

[Tropopause_Fold]

We'll see how the GFS performs when the stakes are high. I think some of its biases were extra glaring during larger storms. When I did my presentation at the EUSwx conference this past summer, I showed the GFS verification scores from December, January and February...and guess what, the times it got its azz absolutely walloped? The 4 HECS.

This winter will be a good test when we have larger events...see if it can shed its reputation of getting killed in the high stakes games.

yeah it should be interesting. i know where my money is, but i'd love to see it get better.

the day 4 to 6 beatings don't really bother me. it's the day .5 to 2 stuff that gets aggravating. last year it was woeful in that regard. it sucks massively trying to piece together the specifics of how something is going to play out when you have to toss out an entire product (one where the data is actually fully available) and use the small pieces of euro data that are available.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm amazed to see the UKMET has a better correlation coefficient that the GFS