Psalm 148:8 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 And thanks for the kudos about the VideoCasts. Other offices have been doing this sort of thing for a while. Our web team did all the setup and training and deserve the credit. I just now saw it at the top of the page and viewed it....neeto mosquito!! That was a great job! I have been watching the Impact Briefing on BMX for a while now....I really like it because it gives a more detailed explanation as to what and why....Keep it up! Especially in big time events like tropical situations, winter storms, and severe weather outbreaks....Pass along kudos and thanks to whoever created and will maintain this feature at ya'lls office. It's a winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 Looking at the radar, East Texas is getting some much needed rain and call me crazy but it looks like it't taken a westerly jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Looking at the radar, East Texas is getting some much needed rain and call me crazy but it looks like it't taken a westerly jog. It does look like it's drifts west some - and looks pretty bad on the eastern side. Of course this storm will end up with rain on the wrong side leaving ga and the csrolinas high and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 The Nam for a couple runs in a row now splits Lee into two systems. One low tracks into southern AL into GA as it gets pulled up by the trough, the rest of Lee stays in the Gulf and further develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 It does look like it's drifts west some - and looks pretty bad on the eastern side. Of course this storm will end up with rain on the wrong side leaving ga and the csrolinas high and dry I highly doubt GA and the Carolinas dry. And i wouldn't put much thought into the nam. It hasn't been the most reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I highly doubt GA and the Carolinas dry. And i wouldn't put much thought into the nam. It hasn't been the most reliable. Well except it was the only model that showed Lee drifting W/ WSW which he is doing right now and also shearing into two systems which may be ongoing right now. I wouldnt be surprised to see the GFS and Euro start to follow it at the 00Z runs. The upside is instead of horribly heavy flooding rains we might ONLY see much needed but not out of control flooding type rains. Really this is the best case scenario the LLC heads west helping parts of TX and the mid and upper low move N/NE helping GA, the only downside is this scenario is exactly what Katia is looking for to head further west....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 Well except it was the only model that showed Lee drifting W/ WSW which he is doing right now and also shearing into two systems which may be ongoing right now. I wouldnt be surprised to see the GFS and Euro start to follow it at the 00Z runs. The upside is instead of horribly heavy flooding rains we might ONLY see much needed but not out of control flooding type rains. Really this is the best case scenario the LLC heads west helping parts of TX and the mid and upper low move N/NE helping GA, the only downside is this scenario is exactly what Katia is looking for to head further west....... You might be onto something there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 0Z GFS shifts the higher rain totals slightly further south. Shows almost 10" over the Atlanta Metro. (Flashbacks to September of '09) btw the GFS has another system in the Gulf at 180... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 btw the GFS has another system in the Gulf at 180... And another at 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 And another at 384 Lol. Not often you look at total precip through the entire GFS run and see 5+ for majority of the Southeast. So, what are your thoughts on Lee's impact for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Lee may be making one last loop so he can gather up some juice from the Gulf and take it for the ride...if the models are accurate with the circulation interacting with the front, look for a rain band to develop northeast of the center over Alabama and Western Georgia by morning...high and mid level clouds should begin to roll into Georgia and the Southern Appalachians by late morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Multiple potentially tornadic circulations south of Mobile currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 0Z GFS shifts the higher rain totals slightly further south. Shows almost 10" over the Atlanta Metro. (Flashbacks to September of '09) btw the GFS has another system in the Gulf at 180... I lived in Atlanta back in 2009. That was one heck of a system. That was the heaviest rain I had ever seen. I remember driving down I-75 near Chastain Rd. I could not see a thing. 0 visibility. I was so frightened. If this is to be believed then this could be a very significant flood event for I-85 between Atlanta and Charlotte. Foothills just might see his first flood event if this holds true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 It is kind of amazing to see how big Lee is and that it has a straw in to Pacific as well as most of the gulf. I am beginning to believe I may see some actual rain I think even Cheez gets some rain out of this...unless it goes back out into the gulf and shafts us all. My ace in the hole is there is a race tomorrow night, and they have a way of getting rained out...or in the case of the Bliz. snowed out. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny WX Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Looking at the radar, East Texas is getting some much needed rain and call me crazy but it looks like it't taken a westerly jog. As of the 4am CDT update, and the IR Flash satellite view, the storm looks huge. The Water Vapor image shows a massive spread of coverage all over the SE and down into the Gulf. The center has moved slightly westward along the Louisiana coast compared to 6pm CDT yesterday. East Texas is covered by cloud coverage over to mid-state, and I assume it is bringing some rain to a lot of it. It looks like GA, the Carolinas, VA, WV, KY, TN, etc. all have a chance of some rain from what I can see right now... is it already raining there? From the latest local video forecasts, they're still predicting action for GA and beyond, although it will apparently weaken to TD and sub-tropical before getting there. Really looks like everyone is benefitting or may benefit. Although at the 1am CDT update the cloud tops were diminishing significantly according to the video showed by the local forecasters. We haven't had a lot of rain here overnight, as we are in the center of the dry air right now. But we've had over 6" here in Baton Rouge, as well as in New Orleans, and they're still telling us we have a possibility of 3-7 more inches in the next 24 hrs. It also looks like the center may be trying to squeeze out the dry air and close. If that does happen, then of course it will be an entirely different ball game. However, as close as it is to the coast, it could dive in at any time and all bets would be off. Wind speeds over south Louisiana have remained relatively low, and the stronger TS force winds are out to sea at this time. However, they have not taken TS force wind possibilities out of our local forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny WX Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Someone mentioned the possible splitting of Lee into two systems. I, too, saw something yesterday that made me think that. I cannot see it at the moment from the satellite images, but am still keeping it in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny WX Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Take that back. There is something over by the FL panhandle, on the other side of the dry air intrusion from me, that looks like it could be a spin off. But it is not showing any signs of separate rotation at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Out of all the loops I have going, I don't have the Lake Charles loop on my page even though I have it running. What it looks like to me is the center (using base velocity and motion) it looks like the center is over that little bay that's about 150 miles to the ESE or Lake Charles and it appears to have a more NE motion to me. Give me a few minutes and I'll get Lake Charles up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Lake Charles GRLevel3 loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Time to go clean the bird poop out of VP2 gauge as it's been about two weeks since I've seen a drop of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Hey all here I posted this on the main thread to see what they think about it. Here is what GSP thinks about the NAM solutions from yesterday. CONDITIONS WILL START GOING DOWNHILL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST OFF...THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WAS THROWN ON THE SCRAP HEAP AS INITIALIZATION ERRORS HAVE EVIDENTLY TRICKED IT INTO A WACKY SOLUTION WHERE T.S. LEE MOVES SOUTH OUT OVER THE WRN GULF. THUS... THE NEW FCST IS LARGELY BASED ON THE 00Z GFS AND 21Z SREF WHICH ARE MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK OF LEE. THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FCST IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AND MOISTENING S TO SE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...THEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE GFS MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT A DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST WOULD GRADUALLY TAP INTO THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LEE AND PULL IT NE OVER NE GEORGIA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS. IF WE BLEND THE NEW GFS AND THE 21Z SREF...THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER 00Z...AT WHICH TIME THE PRECIP SHOULD BE SPREADING SW TO NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SO...AFTER A MOSTLY QUIET MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THE PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP FROM THE SW. WILL BRING THE POP UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE IN THE DAY UP THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND NC MTNS AND HOLD OFF WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT OF NC. THINGS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO THE POINT WHERE A CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT INITIALLY. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND STREAM FLOWS ARE SUCH THAT NO FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY. PREFER TO LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE... HOPEFULLY TO GET THE NAM BACK ON BOARD...BEFORE WE ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OR PART OF THE FCST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Since the system is already moving NE, you can throw the NAM out right now. Just have to wait and see if and when it comes back on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Precip starting to blossom over Alabama this morning...that should expand north and east as the day goes on. Does look like Lee has stopped drifting west and is ready to make his move northeast. Looks like there will be a precip max over Alabama today as that band trains over the same general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Lee may be making one last loop so he can gather up some juice from the Gulf and take it for the ride...if the models are accurate with the circulation interacting with the front, look for a rain band to develop northeast of the center over Alabama and Western Georgia by morning...high and mid level clouds should begin to roll into Georgia and the Southern Appalachians by late morning. General Lee is coming!!!!!!!!! The south WILL rise again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 General Lee is coming!!!!!!!!! The south WILL rise again! http://www.theonion.com/articles/south-postpones-rising-again-for-yet-another-year,377/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 http://www.theonion.com/articles/south-postpones-rising-again-for-yet-another-year,377/ "Lord willing, and the creek don't rise, we gonna rise again," said Sumter, SC, radiator technician Hap Slidell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I've had "radar rain" for a while now, but the ground still hasn't seen any. It's like waiting on that snow at Xmas..seemed like it would never start. A factor of wanting it so badly, I'm sure At least it is a lot cooler under these clouds. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 12z NAM changed its tune and now heads northeast to SC and NC, placing good rains along its track. However its fast and fully phased with the northern stream. But, looking at how quickly the low level spin is moving now in south central LA, it may be on the right track. We'll see how the other models handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Well I was pretty surprised to see HPC's maximum rain trend further east. Oh well im not complaining. Lake Norman&James needs it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 12z NAM changed its tune and now heads northeast to SC and NC, placing good rains along its track. However its fast and fully phased with the northern stream. But, looking at how quickly the low level spin is moving now in south central LA, it may be on the right track. We'll see how the other models handle it. NAM is too weak in the initialization, the 12Z RGEM is much slower, I do not buy this phase any more than the previous dive into the GOM. This NAM sucks, at least with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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