Blue Ridge Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Lee has the potential to drop untold amounts of rain on the Southeast. The sheer land area this setup could affect dictates this should be an event unseen in the Southeast in fifteen or more years. Given the frontal boundary's location and Lee's potential track, this could be an event with no "lee" side to it in the mountains. Historically, a wide open Gulf of Mexico combined with enhanced mountain lift leads to unreal rainfall totals. Residents along the spine of the Appalachians should begin preparing for a possible major flood event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Great video update I thought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Pressure to the NE has relaxed since this morning. It was 1018 all through Georgia, you can see what it is now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Hmmm, already moving north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Gotta love TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Lee is a boy, except hurricanes are its since they are non living. Plz fix the title! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Horrible title, not only is the TC a boy, but he will be making landfall here in the next 12hrs. Granted the sex looks questionable on the warm core front, however, title needs a once over. Enjoy the RN, hope it is a real drought buster for interior portions of the SE, 12" in 24-48 hrs type of deal. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 CMC precip through 144 hours - pink area is 3-8 inches (75-200 mm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny WX Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Nice to have some home brew going on this time. Let's hope either Texas/western LA gets it some or Georgia gets some. Assuming it develops, let's hope it does not split the uprights and miss both areas that badly need drought relief. I realize the post I am quoting is now a couple of days old. This summer has had record droughts for a lot of areas, and we truly could all use some rain. But 10-20 inches? I think that's a lot in a short time, regardless of how dry it has been or where you are. And now... since it's looking like Louisiana, I hope we don't get that much. But it keeps being indicated, and even a NWS employee friend of mine says that he has run models that put max rains at 27" for some areas.The governors of both Louisiana and Mississippi have instated states of emergency for the storm. We have been having light rain here in Baton Rouge for most of the day, but I think that's because so far we're only getting the farthest outer bands. I think it will surely pick up before landfall and before the storm moves northeast or east out of here in a couple of days. We are definitely battening down the hatches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 If I were in northern Mississippi and northern Alabama, I'd be getting a little worried now. The upcoming play is one for the record books. Looks like the trough coming in is going to fully phase at first, which will help pull the system nearly due north, slowwwwwwly. The front in the Missouri bootheel will intercept all that moisture coming at it orthogonically and therefore rain hard. Really, really hard and non stop. Some 10 to 15" totals are going to be common from Muscle Shoals, Huntsville to near Tupelo and maybe anywhere in that general region through 84 hours. Earlier the thought was the front will lay down west to east, but now with the deeper trough (not surprised), its going to be an elongated north-south front which will serve as the axis intially for super duty rains in the Tenn Valley. Another max may be around ne Ga and sw NC where upslope flow rings out several inches of rain, but much, much less so for most of SC and NC east of the mountains. Just scattered rains for most of the Carolinas unfortunately. We really need the first front to not totally intercept the circulation and phase but its appearing thats whats going to happen at this point. Still could change . But I've lived here 41 years and never seen a true flood event, and don't think this one will do it either (speaking of Upstate SC and southern NC area). However, several inches of rain could still fall in this region, but just not major flooding rains like whats likely for areas west of the Apps. If the front gets into damming position, our rains will go to the heavier side here, but by then the circulation will be getting much weaker. Still , any rains are welcome here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted September 3, 2011 Author Share Posted September 3, 2011 FWIW - Lee is a male storm.... Topic title fail.... Guys, completely sorry about not checking the status as to the gender of our friend in the Gulf. I hope you all can sleep well tonight knowing the title is changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 If I were in northern Mississippi and northern Alabama, I'd be getting a little worried now. The upcoming play is one for the record books. Looks like the trough coming in is going to fully phase at first, which will help pull the system nearly due north, slowwwwwwly. The front in the Missouri bootheel will intercept all that moisture coming at it orthogonically and therefore rain hard. Really, really hard and non stop. Some 10 to 15" totals are going to be common from Muscle Shoals, Huntsville to near Tupelo and maybe anywhere in that general region through 84 hours. Earlier the thought was the front will lay down west to east, but now with the deeper trough (not surprised), its going to be an elongated north-south front which will serve as the axis intially for super duty rains in the Tenn Valley. Another max may be around ne Ga and sw NC where upslope flow rings out several inches of rain, but much, much less so for most of SC and NC east of the mountains. Just scattered rains for most of the Carolinas unfortunately. We really need the first front to not totally intercept the circulation and phase but its appearing thats whats going to happen at this point. Still could change . But I've lived here 41 years and never seen a true flood event, and don't think this one will do it either (speaking of Upstate SC and southern NC area). However, several inches of rain could still fall in this region, but just not major flooding rains like whats likely for areas west of the Apps. If the front gets into damming position, our rains will go to the heavier side here, but by then the circulation will be getting much weaker. Still , any rains are welcome here. Will the tornado threat be few and far between or is one area at greater risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Will the tornado threat be few and far between or is one area at greater risk? closer to the circulation and triple point there will be some threat. Thats for Ala, Miss. areas. Probably none around here. Unless the circulation survives well on its trip northeast, but eventually its progged to drift north and open up, west of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 I am not buying into this NC/SC screw zone. Not even close. Storm hasn't made landfall yet and and given how awfully the models handle these kind of events I would rather assume flip a coin. Just looking at the CMC models shows that there are just way to many uncertainties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 I am not buying into this NC/SC screw zone. Not even close. Storm hasn't made landfall yet and and given how awfully the models handle these kind of events I would rather assume flip a coin. IMO Texas is the real screw zone. I agree though the severity on our impact for NC/SC could change with slow moving Lee over the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 IMO Texas is the real screw zone. I agree though the severity on our impact for NC/SC could change with slow moving Lee over the next day or two. LOL. Trust me I feel bad for Texas. But I bet you Texas didn't feel bad for us when Dallas got what, over a foot of snow? And we ended up with much less, 2 or 3 winters ago. I know, not quite the same, but still you get my point. On a serious note, yes I hope that they get something. We still have a good 4 weeks left of Tropical mayhem possibilities. Lee is a slow mover and to throw in the towel now is just stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 IMO Texas is the real screw zone. I agree though the severity on our impact for NC/SC could change with slow moving Lee over the next day or two. Another issue is the rem low of TS Lee slowly drifting around the mid Tenn valley could end up playing a big role in Katia's future......think Fran....obviously there are some differences but then again its enough to get my attention. From the NHC write up on Fran...http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1996fran.html strengthened to a category three hurricane by the time it was northeast of the central Bahamas on 4 September. The powerful tropical cyclone began to be influenced by a cyclonic circulation centered over Tennessee that was most pronounced in mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Fran was steered by the resulting flow around the low over Tennessee and the western extension of the subtropical ridge over the northwest Atlantic. The hurricane gradually turned toward the northwest to north- northwest and increased in forward speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny WX Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 10 pm CDT update. Main points are 1) movement speeds up to 5 mph, 2) pressure drops to 1000 mb, and 3) extension of tropical storm warning to AL/FL border and issuance of tropical storm watch froom AL/FL border to Destin, FL... BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011 1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011 ...LEE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 91.6W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The Oregon @ LSU game tomorrow night at 8pm in Baton Rouge should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Another issue is the rem low of TS Lee slowly drifting around the mid Tenn valley could end up playing a big role in Katia's future......think Fran....obviously there are some differences but then again its enough to get my attention. From the NHC write up on Fran...http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1996fran.html strengthened to a category three hurricane by the time it was northeast of the central Bahamas on 4 September. The powerful tropical cyclone began to be influenced by a cyclonic circulation centered over Tennessee that was most pronounced in mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Fran was steered by the resulting flow around the low over Tennessee and the western extension of the subtropical ridge over the northwest Atlantic. The hurricane gradually turned toward the northwest to north- northwest and increased in forward speed. Fishel mentioned something interesting tonight. There are 10 hurricanes with a similar position and time of year to Katia...3 of which made landfall on the NC coast. Gloria, Connie, and Fran. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 the 00z GFS is back to a partial phase. This would spread the rain totals out some. The northern stream pulls just enough to get the center of circ. up into Alabama, eventually around northeast Alabama, and places the front in damming position across the Carolinas, an east-west fashion. Subtle changes in direction and speed of Lee and the deep trough and its speed mean a lot of actual differences at the surface. Just don't know yet, but one things for sure...the heavy rains in Alabama and Miss and southern TN. A second max is likely in northern/ne GA and sw NC where continuous upslope will exist, regardless. If the GFS is right , then most of the Carolinas will eventually get into heavy rains as well with the damming front and so will most of GA, except central to southeast GA and central /eastern SC where rain is badly needed as well. Time will tell as they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The Oregon @ LSU game tomorrow night at 8pm in Baton Rouge should be interesting. Game's being played in Arlington, TX at Jerry World. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Game's being played in Arlington, TX at Jerry World. Thats right. I remember reading something about that a while back. DUH Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 the 00z GFS is back to a partial phase. This would spread the rain totals out some. The northern stream pulls just enough to get the center of circ. up into Alabama, eventually around northeast Alabama, and places the front in damming position across the Carolinas, an east-west fashion. Subtle changes in direction and speed of Lee and the deep trough and its speed mean a lot of actual differences at the surface. Just don't know yet, but one things for sure...the heavy rains in Alabama and Miss and southern TN. A second max is likely in northern/ne GA and sw NC where continuous upslope will exist, regardless. If the GFS is right , then most of the Carolinas will eventually get into heavy rains as well with the damming front and so will most of GA, except central to southeast GA and central /eastern SC where rain is badly needed as well. Time will tell as they say. Still a fairly sharp cutoff to the good rains about 75 miles or so to our SE but through 111 the GFS gives us around 4 or so inches. Much more in the upslope areas. I'd feel a little more confident if things were shifted about 50 miles farther east than they are now though. Really hoping we can get at least 3-5 inches widespread over much of the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Thats right. I remember reading something about that a while back. DUH Thanks. Tulane has moved their game versus Southeastern LA to 12:30pm. Otherwise, I think every other Louisiana football program of ANY notability is playing out of state tomorrow. What I wouldn't give for Oregon vs LSU to be in Baton Rouge, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Tulane has moved their game versus Southeastern LA to 12:30pm. Otherwise, I think every other Louisiana football program of ANY notability is playing out of state tomorrow. What I wouldn't give for Oregon vs LSU to be in Baton Rouge, though... Yeah. It would be like chasing from my recliner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Yeah. It would be like chasing from my recliner. I just noticed that Louisiana Tech is playing at Southern Miss at 10pm tomorrow. I doubt it will be broadcast, but I'd enjoy that; Hattiesburg is supposed to be in the thick of it by that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Still a fairly sharp cutoff to the good rains about 75 miles or so to our SE but through 111 the GFS gives us around 4 or so inches. Much more in the upslope areas. I'd feel a little more confident if things were shifted about 50 miles farther east than they are now though. Really hoping we can get at least 3-5 inches widespread over much of the Carolinas Starting Sunday, we're probably in for about a week of clouds and atleast showers. This run keeps the closed trough in the TN valley or Ohio Valley, and does bring periods of rain and storms for a while. Would be a nice, wet week of much needed rains for sure. I can't help but think the GFS is still under-doing the amounts in NC mtns with good upslope flow for a long time, but 5"to 7" is still a lot of rain. We will know soon how much the northern stream affects the southern stream. Its going to be a delicate act to get just the right amount of influence for our area. West of the Apps in Al and nw GA is a no brainer. Major rains there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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