CandymanColumbusGA Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Each run of the GFS is starting to scare me more and more that Robert's scenario of Ark / W TN and Northward movement to Kentucky might come true. I still think even the GFS is somewhat out to lunch on a "good" pinpoint solution. At least that is what I am going to tell myself. IMO it's all going to depend on when Lee starts interacting with the front. With that easterly to southeasterly flow from Lee on the eastern side of the front, it will help ride up A LOT of moisture along the frontal boundary. That's where I'm thinking we'll see the most rain. You also have to remember about orograhpic lift for the North Georgia mountains and such, but the ultimate timing and placement of the front will be key in determining who gets the most rain. That's not to say most of us won't pick up some rain... just maybe not as much as some were hoping. All that being said, I hope I am wrong with the heavier activity to our NW and let it RAIN RAIN RAIN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 NWS map of Georgia looks to be directly in step with Robert's map he posted back on page 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Checkout the euro 3hr wondermap frames. Holy crap that setup is screaming bigtime rains over a huge chunk of the northern southeast. Someone will get historic rains out of this one. Haven't seen the 12z yet. The broad SE flow around this low is gong to setup some big time storms as early as Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I wonder if the 12Z GFS is underestimating the orographic lift here in the mountains? It's QPF is much lower (2-2.50") than even the past few runs and is placing the heaviest precip well back into TN and AR. But, with a steady southerly and even southeasterly fetch orthogonal to the Apps, with high PWATS, it seems the QPF could be substantially higher in the mountains...no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Checkout the euro 3hr wondermap frames. Holy crap that setup is screaming bigtime rains over a huge chunk of the northern southeast. Someone will get historic rains out of this one. Haven't seen the 12z yet. The broad SE flow around this low is gong to setup some big time storms as early as Sunday afternoon. By northern southeast are you talking Kentucky and Virginia ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I wonder if the 12Z GFS is underestimating the orographic lift here in the mountains? It's QPF is much lower (2-2.50") than even the past few runs and is placing the heaviest precip well back into TN and AR. But, with a steady southerly and even southeasterly fetch orthogonal to the Apps, with high PWATS, it seems the QPF could be substantially higher in the mountains...no? I agree, I was thinking the same thing myself. And throw the interaction of the frontal boundary and you would think it would be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 By northern southeast are you talking Kentucky and Virginia ? Never heard of kentucky/virginia being in the southeast. I am talking about TN/western NC and the northern half of MS/AL/GA/SC. Everyone knows LA will be pounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Never heard of kentucky/virginia being in the southeast. I am talking about TN/western NC and the northern half of MS/AL/GA/SC. Everyone knows LA will be pounded 12Z Euro shows some major rains for the areas you are referring to. This looks better and better the closer it gets. I'm banking on 2+ inches here in NW Atlanta burbs. I would gladly take more and I think the total for my area is probably going to be closer to 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Agree. Great set-up for the lee side also as the development will come in from ssw-sse No range to break it up also.... I wonder if the 12Z GFS is underestimating the orographic lift here in the mountains? It's QPF is much lower (2-2.50") than even the past few runs and is placing the heaviest precip well back into TN and AR. But, with a steady southerly and even southeasterly fetch orthogonal to the Apps, with high PWATS, it seems the QPF could be substantially higher in the mountains...no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I wonder if the 12Z GFS is underestimating the orographic lift here in the mountains? It's QPF is much lower (2-2.50") than even the past few runs and is placing the heaviest precip well back into TN and AR. But, with a steady southerly and even southeasterly fetch orthogonal to the Apps, with high PWATS, it seems the QPF could be substantially higher in the mountains...no? I've seen this many times before.imo the Blue Ridge Escarpment (Cashiers,Lake Toxaway,Brevard,Hendersonville,Old Fort) Will get pounded. As you get further away rainfall will reduce dramtically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 The new ECMWF is very similar to GFS and the GGEM. All are major deals for drought relief in the Southeast/Tenn Valley. It looks like the key is how the front lays down and exactly what track and how much development the circulation develops before attaching, and then De-taching , from the longwave trough. Quite an unusual setup , but its got mega-rains written all over it for La, southern Ark, northern and central Miss, Ala, GA and atleast southern half of Tn to western NC. The front should develop extreme convergence Sunday and Monday on the western side of the circualation in La, Ms, Tn, Ala, Ark and then the front dips down in nearly damming fashion on Tues /Wed and that enhances lift in the Carolinas and n. GA. When all is said and done, if the c.o.c. does like the models are showing, by not getting totally pulled east, and is allowed to interact for a few days, its going to be a 10" to 15" widespread rainfall event . Of course, models are notorious on missing rain amounts (usually too low) . Honestly the synoptic setup argues for more rain in the nw shield of the slow moving circulation and that would probably be east Central Miss, cutting through Alabama and probably northwest GA. Very rough first guess at this point, and the details in a lot of factors will determine how this zone shifts around the next few days. Hopefully everyone gets some rain esp. in central Ga and most of SC where its badly needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 The new ECMWF is very similar to GFS and the GGEM. All are major deals for drought relief in the Southeast/Tenn Valley. It looks like the key is how the front lays down and exactly what track and how much development the circulation develops before attaching, and then De-taching , from the longwave trough. Quite an unusual setup , but its got mega-rains written all over it for La, southern Ark, northern and central Miss, Ala, GA and atleast southern half of Tn to western NC. The front should develop extreme convergence Sunday and Monday on the western side of the circualation in La, Ms, Tn, Ala, Ark and then the front dips down in nearly damming fashion on Tues /Wed and that enhances lift in the Carolinas and n. GA. When all is said and done, if the c.o.c. does like the models are showing, by not getting totally pulled east, and is allowed to interact for a few days, its going to be a 10" to 15" widespread rainfall event . Of course, models are notorious on missing rain amounts (usually too low) . Honestly the synoptic setup argues for more rain in the nw shield of the slow moving circulation and that would probably be east Central Miss, cutting through Alabama and probably northwest GA. Very rough first guess at this point, and the details in a lot of factors will determine how this zone shifts around the next few days. Hopefully everyone gets some rain esp. in central Ga and most of SC where its badly needed. Hopefully it shifts a little more to the east, that way places like SC and Central GA will get in on some more action. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see it go farther east, question is how quickly does it move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 The new ECMWF is very similar to GFS and the GGEM. All are major deals for drought relief in the Southeast/Tenn Valley. It looks like the key is how the front lays down and exactly what track and how much development the circulation develops before attaching, and then De-taching , from the longwave trough. Quite an unusual setup , but its got mega-rains written all over it for La, southern Ark, northern and central Miss, Ala, GA and atleast southern half of Tn to western NC. The front should develop extreme convergence Sunday and Monday on the western side of the circualation in La, Ms, Tn, Ala, Ark and then the front dips down in nearly damming fashion on Tues /Wed and that enhances lift in the Carolinas and n. GA. When all is said and done, if the c.o.c. does like the models are showing, by not getting totally pulled east, and is allowed to interact for a few days, its going to be a 10" to 15" widespread rainfall event . Of course, models are notorious on missing rain amounts (usually too low) . Honestly the synoptic setup argues for more rain in the nw shield of the slow moving circulation and that would probably be east Central Miss, cutting through Alabama and probably northwest GA. Very rough first guess at this point, and the details in a lot of factors will determine how this zone shifts around the next few days. Hopefully everyone gets some rain esp. in central Ga and most of SC where its badly needed. Dang, your getting me all excited! In a way though I'm kinda wishing we weren't 4 days away. In winter you never wanna be in the bullseye 3-5 days away. Sounds like a rare setup. Thanks for the update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Dang, your getting me all excited! In a way though I'm kinda wishing we weren't 4 days away. In winter you never wanna be in the bullseye 3-5 days away. Sounds like a rare setup. Thanks for the update! Well the rain is supposed to start in 2 days, so we're not 4 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Well the rain is supposed to start in 2 days, so we're not 4 days away. The event is supposed to start late Sunday and go through Tuesday or Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I smell a southern escarpement pounding coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I smell a big rain shadow in Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Well the rain is supposed to start in 2 days, so we're not 4 days away. The rain probably will start sometime late Sunday. I don't think the main rain begins until Monday though. We'll see. BTW, 12z GFS looks rather dry. Toss it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 new HPC QPF map through 12z Wednesday. That's a whole lotta water. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 FWIW - Lee is a male storm.... Topic title fail.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 For those who haven't seen here is FFC's video briefing on Lee. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/ffc/videocast/Lee/player.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 new HPC QPF map through 12z Wednesday. That's a whole lotta water. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif That sure is a sharp cutoff in the precip between Atlanta and Macon... What's strange to me is that it shows much more rain in Central MS than Central GA even though GA will be on the east side of Lee. I guess the east side won't be where most of the rain occurs? FFC says only 1-2" for Central GA. That would hardly be a drought buster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Lee is a "she"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 That sure is a sharp cutoff in the precip between Atlanta and Macon... well, not only will you get better orographic lifting further north, but convergence associated with the frontal boundry will be located there as well. That whole setup will play out beyond the time period of that map further north and east up through New England. Some serious flooding up north again I fear, and a drought buster for everyone in the southeast except your neck of the woods and further ESE. Let's hope you get more than a few tenths out of this one. I don't see a real reason for such a sharp cutoff either, and I don't think it necessarily plays out that way (less gradient). However, I do believe you get less than those further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Lee is a "she"? Yep. The amount of rainfall will be a real b**ch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 FWIW, 18z NAM takes the center right through Northwest Georgia at 993mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 umm...if Katia is a girl, then Lee is a boy...you got your pronouns wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 umm...if Katia is a girl, then Lee is a boy...you got your pronouns wrong... Welcome to the back-a**wards South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 What is the tornado threat looking like across the region? I know all landfalling systems can produce them, but this one appears to be a bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Welcome to the back-a**wards South. You beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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