ryan1234 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Does anyone have an opinion about rainfall amounts for the Charlotte area? Given the track I think we appear to do very well, however part of me is a bit skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 11AM advisory it is still TD 13, no TS yet..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 12Z NAM just pounds Western Alabama and Central / North Mississippi. I have not looked at rainfall totals yet. This solution looks more like the front pulls this thing north giving N. Miss, NW Alabama and Southern TN a dumping. Yep...looks like a winter time phase with the northern stream. Personally I don't want this scenario as that track will leave a lot of people in GA and the western Carolinas wishing for more. So I'll go head and say what I always say in the winter....it's the NAM so take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Does anyone have an opinion about rainfall amounts for the Charlotte area? Given the track I think we appear to do very well, however part of me is a bit skeptical. That all up in the air at this point in time. The steering currents are weak for the next several days and if the northern stream grabs it then we will all be disappointed. There is not enough consensus yet IMHO to try to speculate on amounts yet for areas especially your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 Yep...looks like a winter time phase with the northern stream. Personally I don't want this scenario as that track will leave a lot of people in GA and the western Carolinas wishing for more. So I'll go head and say what I always say in the winter....it's the NAM so take it with a grain of salt. Funny, I was thinking the same thing, it almost looked like a positively tilted phase. Ugh. Usually, correct me if I am wrong, at least in the winter time, phasing like that usually speeds up the system and dries out as it heads East. I am talking winter here, not this particular T.D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Yep...looks like a winter time phase with the northern stream. Personally I don't want this scenario as that track will leave a lot of people in GA and the western Carolinas wishing for more. So I'll go head and say what I always say in the winter....it's the NAM so take it with a grain of salt. For a dissipating or remnant tropical system, looks like the NAM has the eastern side of the storm much too dry...gotta figure it would throw quite a bit more moisture up from the gulf on its east side (unless it turned out to be one of those weird systems which hit land and completely evaporate....like Don did this year over S. Texas.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Funny, I was thinking the same thing, it almost looked like a positively tilted phase. Ugh. Usually, correct me if I am wrong, at least in the winter time, phasing like that usually speeds up the system and dries out as it heads East. I am talking winter here, not this particular T.D. For a dissipating or remnant tropical system, looks like the NAM has the eastern side of the storm much too dry...gotta figure it would throw quite a bit more moisture up from the gulf on its east side (unless it turned out to be one of those weird systems which hit land and completely evaporate....like Don did this year over S. Texas.) The NAM pretty much transforms it rather quickly into a traditional low from a tropical low as the northern stream phases with it. What you end up with looks like a nice winter time gulf low precip pattern with a nice deformation band to the north and northwest of the low while a squall line forms along the newly formed "cold front" south of the low. On the 1000-500mb thickness maps at 84 hr you can see the 576 line wrapping nicely around the back side of the low as "cooler" air is being pulled in behind the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Hoping 13/Lee can scoot a bit further east after it drenches Georgia. Less than 1.5" here during alll of August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 For a dissipating or remnant tropical system, looks like the NAM has the eastern side of the storm much too dry...gotta figure it would throw quite a bit more moisture up from the gulf on its east side (unless it turned out to be one of those weird systems which hit land and completely evaporate....like Don did this year over S. Texas.) I think part of the reason Don did so badly was because it was already a very weak system, not to mention it was bone dry in south Texas. Like I said I think that was part of the reason for its under performance. I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I think part of the reason Don did so badly was because it was already a very weak system, not to mention it was bone dry in south Texas. Like I said I think that was part of the reason for its under performance. I could be wrong. You're most likely right......the reason I brought it up is I remember reading the last advisory on that system and the forecaster remarked that he had never seen a tropical system, weak or not, evaporate like Don did. It literally vanished into thin air. Here's to Lee NOT doing the same thing. Man we need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 You're most likely right......the reason I brought it up is I remember reading the last advisory on that system and the forecaster remarked that he had never seen a tropical system, weak or not, evaporate like Don did. It literally vanished into thin air. Here's to Lee NOT doing the same thing. Man we need the rain. We so do. I think GA. Especially central GA needs it the most, but we can all benefit from it. A nice soaking I-85 would be fantastic! Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I don't think future Lee "evaporates". If it actually does I'll go cliff jumping.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 poor TX, td13 is such a cocktease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Steamship I think. Anyway this radar has crashed more times than Billy Joel after a night at the bar. It has been ridiculous lately. I think KDIX up in Jersey is worse. Failed for 95% of Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 poor TX, td13 is such a cocktease I do feel bad for Texas, but we will take the rains and smile in the Southeast. It's been bone dry in Georgia, if it were not for the drought in Texas the Georgia drought would be much bigger news.... It's bad here and we really need a good tropical soaking rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 DISSIPATION OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT DRY AIR INFLUENCE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN. GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION...LESSENING SHEAR...AND VERY WARM SSTS NEAR 30C THE CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL...ICON...WITH THE STATISTICAL MODELS ABOVE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BELOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Station 42040 (LLNR 293) - LUKE OFFSHORE TEST PLATFORM 64 nm South of Dauphin Island, AL Now showing 38 mph with gust to 47 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Does anyone have an opinion about rainfall amounts for the Charlotte area? Given the track I think we appear to do very well, however part of me is a bit skeptical. The way Foothills described the pattern back on page 4 looks on cue to me. We're not just dealing with a tropical system that rains itself out over a limited area. The cold front that stalls out over the SE in combination with the moist flow on the east side of the tropical system will provide a prolonged period of rain chances over a large portion of the SE. I'm fully expecting substantial rain in Charlotte next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I'm starting to like this more and more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 GFS rain totals through 84 hours...over 15 inches east of Memphis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif A lot of rain for a lot of folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 What was the storm we had here in Georgia that dumped 20" of rain in some parts, I want to say it was mid-1990's sometime, I just can't remember the name (it's that old age thing). It just stopped and sat for a day or three. I just remember MASSIVE flooding and watching TV where they showed rivers that looked like unbelievable torrents of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep....qpf/p120i12.gif A lot of rain for a lot of folks! Very nice! They are not giving much love to South and central Georgia though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 What was the storm we had here in Georgia that dumped 20" of rain in some parts, I want to say it was mid-1990's sometime, I just can't remember the name (it's that old age thing). It just stopped and sat for a day or three. I just remember MASSIVE flooding and watching TV where they showed rivers that looked like unbelievable torrents of water. Alberto - I lived in Clayton county at the time and recorded 13" in less than 24hours. Only time my 4" gauge overflowed the 12" recording capacity. http://www.newscentralga.com/news/local/Central-Georgia-Remembers-Albertos-Flooding-Rains-from-1994-125050174.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 Alberto - I lived in Clayton county at the time and recorded 13" in less than 24hours. Only time my 4" gauge overflowed the 12" recording capacity. http://www.newscentr...-125050174.html Yep. I was in Griffin at my Great Aunt's house where she lived in a house surrounded by a pond. Luckily it over flowed the dam before reaching the house, but the dam was our only way to get out. Fortunately we had food and kept power. If I remember right, caskets were floating in South GA and floating down stream. I remember seeing the footage on t.v. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 poor TX, td13 is such a cocktease It is for mby too GFS rain totals through 84 hours...over 15 inches east of Memphis GFS gives me .52 if I'm lucky...*sigh* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Now Tropical Storm Lee http://www.noaawatch.gov/2011/tc_at13.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 It's now TS Lee! I hate to say it, but the more I look at things, the more and more I think half of us in Georgia will miss out on the bigger rains... I forecasted widespread 2" of rain for my area and even that is looking a bit much... Fortunately though, most of the moisture is on the eastern side of the system for now so here's to it staying rather weak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Alberto - I lived in Clayton county at the time and recorded 13" in less than 24hours. Only time my 4" gauge overflowed the 12" recording capacity. http://www.newscentr...-125050174.html Yep. I was in Griffin at my Great Aunt's house where she lived in a house surrounded by a pond. Luckily it over flowed the dam before reaching the house, but the dam was our only way to get out. Fortunately we had food and kept power. If I remember right, caskets were floating in South GA and floating down stream. I remember seeing the footage on t.v. That's it! Just an unbelievable amount of rain from that storm, has anyone looked to see if that was a good analog for this current system? Thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 It's now TS Lee! I hate to say it, but the more I look at things, the more and more I think half of us in Georgia will miss out on the bigger rains... I forecasted widespread 2" of rain for my area and even that is looking a bit much... Fortunately though, most of the moisture is on the eastern side of the system for now so here's to it staying rather weak! Each run of the GFS is starting to scare me more and more that Robert's scenario of Ark / W TN and Northward movement to Kentucky might come true. I still think even the GFS is somewhat out to lunch on a "good" pinpoint solution. At least that is what I am going to tell myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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