LithiaWx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Looking good for some rain around here! It sure is, most models are now tracking this thing into LA and then moving it NE into the interior Se. Looks very good, not banking on rain yet but this is getting very exciting!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 12z model suite seems back on board for sending possible Lee towards the Louisiana and then slowly inland the Interior Southeast...Euro infact dissolves Lee just inland and allows Katia to get a little too close for comfort. IMO, we're likely to have a lopsided feature dumping a ton of run along the Gulf Coast and heading inland for next week... Really TX needs this badly but it looks like they are not going to get lucky this time around. I also hope it stays west of I-95 we dont want or need a lot of rain, the rivers are still forecast to be running full middle of next week and a lot of rain would be exactly what we dont need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Really TX needs this badly but it looks like they are not going to get lucky this time around. I also hope it stays west of I-95 we dont want or need a lot of rain, the rivers are still forecast to be running full middle of next week and a lot of rain would be exactly what we dont need. I agree, Texas is now in it's worst drought in history. This video is really depressing to see how badly Texas is suffering: ~24 inches of rain now possible in southern Louisiana: unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Tropical Depression 13 has formed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I agree, Texas is now in it's worst drought in history. This video is really depressing to see how badly Texas is suffering: ~24 inches of rain now possible in southern Louisiana: unbelievable 24 inches of rain is devastating for a state, or at least an area that sits at or below sea level. I hope this thing moves farther to east. And yes Texas is in a drought, but in all honesty, if the tables were turned and we were in a exceptional drought, and Texas was moderate they'd be hoping for rain too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 24 inches of rain is devastating for a state, or at least an area that sits at or below sea level. I hope this thing moves farther to east. And yes Texas is in a drought, but in all honesty, if the tables were turned and we were in a exceptional drought, and Texas was moderate they'd be hoping for rain too. The drought in Texas is beyond words and trust me they need it a million times more than anywhere in the SE, but it doesnt really matter since none of us have to power to control the weather. As for 24" in LA most of that area is already watershed and will not have trouble with that kind of rainfall totals for the most part. Similar to the marshes in eastern NC they dont really "flood" from rain ever. However New Orleans could be in trouble as I am not sure if their pumps can handle that much rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 The drought in Texas is beyond words and trust me they need it a million times more than anywhere in the SE, but it doesnt really matter since none of us have to power to control the weather. As for 24" in LA most of that area is already watershed and will not have trouble with that kind of rainfall totals for the most part. Similar to the marshes in eastern NC they dont really "flood" from rain ever. However New Orleans could be in trouble as I am not sure if their pumps can handle that much rain If the pumps are anything like they were in the mid 90's when I lived there then no way they can handle it. Perhaps when Katrina came though they replaced some of the pumps that were destroyed during that storm with some more powerful ones. Back in the mid 90's N.O. would flood from a bad summertime thunderstorm. Two feet of rain will be too much for the pumps to keep up with most likely. There is a state of emergency for LA now so they are not taking any chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 18Z run is interesting.to say the least. If the GFS is to be believed the SE gets some much needed rain, it will just take time and quite honestly that might be the best kind of rain. Also, even though this probably belongs in another thread, Huirricane Katia makes a strong run at the coast and turns out at the last minute to fish. Watching each panel I was like... oh wow, its going to make land fall now... then it turned out. It has come wayyyy west, but this is for another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I was in coastal Miss in the El Nino spring of 1995 - we had 20 inches of rain over a 2 day period in May. Flooding everywhere. There's an article on the web that talks about that event, and I recall it saying that there was a place on the coast that got like 5 inches in one hour - insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 00Z Models, not much shifting going on. It appears that they have latched onto a solid solution. Bring on the rains!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 The drought in Texas is beyond words and trust me they need it a million times more than anywhere in the SE, but it doesnt really matter since none of us have to power to control the weather. As for 24" in LA most of that area is already watershed and will not have trouble with that kind of rainfall totals for the most part. Similar to the marshes in eastern NC they dont really "flood" from rain ever. However New Orleans could be in trouble as I am not sure if their pumps can handle that much rain Droughts are just part of our changing climate. Droughts are becoming more and more frequent and more widespread. When we had our drought here. (I forget what year it was). It took almost 2 years to get caught back up. I imagine it will be the same with Texas. I just don't see Texas getting relief anytime soon. Not with that ridge. As far as New Orleans is concerned, yeah they don't need that much rain. Sad thing is that no matter what New Orleans will never be the same again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 18z GFS gave me 3-5 inches of rain. I'd love for that scenario to verify. My only worry is TD13 dumps all its rain south of us and we don't get much. Such a slow-mover! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 FFC has issued hydrologic outlook for all of North and North Central GA. HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1012 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2011 ...HEAVY RAIN WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAINLY OVER NORTH GEORGIA... TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING AND HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON SATURDAY IN LOUISIANA. THE PRIMARY IMPACT SHOULD BE A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF RAIN AS THE STORM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST. GEORGIA WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM WHICH WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO THE STATE. HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTH GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THESE WEATHER FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE A MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT HAS BEEN PREVAILING OVER NORTH GEORGIA...THE SOILS ARE VERY DRY. INITIALLY...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE SOILS. HOWEVER...THE PROLONGED DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN OVER ANY PARTICULAR AREA...ESPECIALLY URBAN AREAS... WILL CAUSE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND MINOR FLOODING OF STREAMS AND CREEKS. RESIDENTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND BY VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICKING ON GEORGIA...OR BY TUNING INTO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES. Sent from my HTC ThunderBolt using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 What we have coming next week could be absolutely amazing. TD 13, which should become TS Lee, should get picked up by the trough coming through. The big question is what happens after that. The GFS shows the storm stalling nearby, causing very heavy rainfall throughout the southeast. If this happens, it will be very interesting to watch what happens with Katia. Right now though, most of Georgia and the Carolinas could see up to 2-4 inches of rain with higher spots of up to 8-10 inches of rain. This could be one of the biggest rain events we have had in a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 WHOA NELLY!!!...and believe it or not, the core of the system is just coming through WNC at 144 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 WHOA NELLY!!!...and believe it or not, the core of the system is just coming through WNC at 144 hours... Hope those higher totals spread east. Just not east of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 the last run of GFS and ECMWF are bullish on a big time rain event in the Southeast. This event looks a little different from out usual incoming Gulf systems, in that it interacts strongly with a stalled front and is sandwhich between Katia to the East and the big western ridge, and the first front acts to pull it just enough inland to allow the remnants of the circulation to stall and really rain itself out over the Southeast. Normally, we get a good soaking and the front pushes everything through before too much rain can fall, but in this situation the models are starting to lean to big rain totals from a really stalled circulation over Alabama or maybe the Tennessee Valley. Its uncertain yet how the event unfolds but either way, we're getting some rain over a good chunk of the SE and its badly needed still west of the Coastal Plain. The GFS had 12" or more through next week, the Euro had slightly less but its flow and track looked very similar just lesser amounts (but still plenty of 7" amounts). Be interesting to see if the models keep this a slow mover...some area besides southern Lousiana is going to get hit hard with a flooding rain event Sunday through Tuesday,and right now I'm leaning in southeast Ark, most of Tennessee, northern Alabama and northern GA and eventually western NC. But there is still a sizeable chance the front pulls it more than the models are showing, which would lessen amounts in Ark and western TN especially. On the other hand if the system is slower to form then that would give the first front time to totally miss it, and then the circulation goes straight toward Ark and western TENN especially. As usual, too early to know, but when the GFS especially begins to stay consistent , its usually right in big rain events. 12" or more is not hard to do if the flow is right , as shown several times in TENN and GA the last few years, esp. in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Robert, Looks like GSP is on the same page as you are. I am kinda worried about flooding in WNC because it has been so dry recently. If this verifies it is going to get ugly for some people up here. .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST BEGINS AT 12 ON SATURDAY WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA AND A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO...THIS RIDGE WEAKENS AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE GOM CLOSED LOW. LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS HAVE THE TROF ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH THE CLOSED LOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT 12Z ON MON. ON SATURDAY...WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY SAT EVENING AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW WILL INCREASE POPS INTO SUN AS A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW CREATING A BROAD REGION OF LOW LVL CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. FOR SUNDAY THRU EARLY MONDAY...THE SFC FRONT WILL STRENGHTEN AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE FCST AREA...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH UNTIL SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY TROPICAL LOW TO OUR SW AND THE FRONT TO OUR NW...A SCENARIO IS SETTING UP THAT COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES FROM LATE SUN ONWARD WITH MOIST...TROPICAL PROFILES. OBVIOUSLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48HRS.&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF DIGGING DOWN OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OPENS UP AND BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN SOME DEGREE OF SOUTHERN STREAM TROFINESS THRU DAY 7. AT THE SFC...WE CAN EXPECT HEAVY AND PERSISTENT PERIODS OF RAINFALL AS A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE CWFA FROM THE NW. THE STRONG SFC HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHERN SE CONUS FOR THRU AT LEAST DAY 5 AND LIKELY LONGER. BEYOND THAT...DEGRADATION OF THE LOW IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT WITH THE MODELS DIVERGING CONSIDERABLY. FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...STEADY RAINFALL THRU AT LEAST WED IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS DEEPENS TS KATIA FASTER AS IT APPROACHES THE SE CONUS PRODUCING MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THRU DAY 7 WHILE THE OLDER RUN OF THE ECMWF PUSHES THE SFC RIDGE FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH PUTTING THE FCST AREA IN DRIER NLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW BY MIDDAY THURS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE 2 SOLUTIONS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 FOR NOW AND KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE POP IN THE FCST. I EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THRU DAY 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Looks like there will be a lot of rain with this. I hope eastern NC doesn't get much, though. I don't really want anymore, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Looks like there will be a lot of rain with this. I hope eastern NC doesn't get much, though. I don't really want anymore, either. The way the pattern is setting up...Eastern North Carolina could lie in a relative minimum between TD 13 and Katia who will be making her closest approach to the US...If the moisture field strings out along the Appalachians as the GFS has suggested, then the potential is there for it to get really bad here along the escarpment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Message Date: Sep 02 2011 04:59:55 WSR-88D KRAX WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL MONDAY...SEPTEMBER 5TH. PARTS A RE ON ORDER. ADJACENT WSR-88D/S INCLUDE...KFCX...KLTX...KAKQ...KMHX...KGSP... KC AE Are they using horseback to ship the parts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Message Date: Sep 02 2011 04:59:55 WSR-88D KRAX WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL MONDAY...SEPTEMBER 5TH. PARTS A RE ON ORDER. ADJACENT WSR-88D/S INCLUDE...KFCX...KLTX...KAKQ...KMHX...KGSP... KC AE Are they using horseback to ship the parts? Steamship I think. Anyway this radar has crashed more times than Billy Joel after a night at the bar. It has been ridiculous lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Plenty of overlap between other sites though. It least the rain won't show up there until Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 First off, shouldn't the title of this thread be changed to TD 13? Also. me like: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 [quote name=eyewall' timestamp='1314970 144' post='939440] Steamship I think. Anyway this radar has crashed more times than Billy Joel after a night at the bar. It has been ridiculous lately. Pony express. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 First off, shouldn't the title of this thread be changed to TD 13? Also. me like: You and I both! I'm starting to get excited about this one, we could have a long drawn out rain event. I'm hoping the combination of the low, the surface front, and the mountains, will bring us monsoon rains here in North Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Bring the rains!! This is getting very exciting for my neck of the woods! This storm might be Tropical Storm Lee at the 11AM advisory. Model page updated it to Tropical Storm 13. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 WHOA NELLY!!!...and believe it or not, the core of the system is just coming through WNC at 144 hours... over 12" near mby. lol - what i would give for that to verify of course we all saw what happened to irene a few days before it was supposed to hit the se so i am not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 First off, shouldn't the title of this thread be changed to TD 13? Also. me like: Alright Cheez, I changed it, but you have to be more optomistic when winter rolls around this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 12Z NAM just pounds Western Alabama and Central / North Mississippi. I have not looked at rainfall totals yet. This solution looks more like the front pulls this thing north giving N. Miss, NW Alabama and Southern TN a dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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