Isopycnic Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 But does CLT need any rain at all right now, let alone that much? CLT is above normal in rainfall for the summer as well as for the year. i'm somewhere around -1.20" for the month, -8" for the year. rain would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Solid hit for many in need of rain on the 18z GFS. Lee is stalled in the GOM for a very lengthy amount of time through 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Solid hit for many in need of rain on the 18z GFS. Lee is stalled in the GOM for a very lengthy amount of time through 180. Shortly after "Lee" goes through a stalling phase over the Northeast Gulf, a closed 500mb upper low develops over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and brings him due north...in other words, take these totals through 174 and likely double them through 240 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 93L is officially Cherry. 1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE ON THURSDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I fully endorse the GFS. Today is day 27 without measureable rainfall and day 3 with smoke in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 A good number of people west of Charlotte could use some substancial rainfall...Cleveland and Rutherford Counties in particular. Even where I live along the escarpment, we had a dry August.Of course anything over about 6 inches will result in flooding regardless. Yea we are brutally dry here. I have received only 1.86" this month and haven't had rain since August 21st and that was only .2" I would love to get several inches of rain from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 But does CLT need any rain at all right now, let alone that much? CLT is above normal in rainfall for the summer as well as for the year. Last 3-4 weeks have been the driest all summer here....otherwise, can't complain. It's been near normal I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Where shall Ivest 93 go, models don't know: Sure as h-bomb not where the GFDL routes it if Irene is any indication Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 0z GFS pulls a 180 and heads toward the Euro camp...landfall Southern Lousiana but the trough never captures the storm, it stalls and then moves back into the water towards Lower Texas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 0z GFS pulls a 180 and heads toward the Euro camp...landfall Southern Lousiana but the trough never captures the storm, it stalls and then moves back into the water towards Lower Texas... Of course it did. I am so fed up with the models as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 And tonight's 0z Euro run still continues its more westerly track with Lee and says forget the SE. Texas needs the rain this time. Makes one wonder if the GFS will go back to its own solution or will it continue to follow suit with the Euro. I'd like to see the original solution but those across the Deep South do need to be relieved somehow of that dreadful heatwave. If only we had two features to work with to bring precipitation so that both areas could get some rain. We'll see what happens over the course of this upcoming Labor Day weekend. By the way, GGEM is also the same with the Euro but ramps up the system to a strong Cat. 2 at 966mb bringing in significant rainfall for parts of the Gulf Coast areas and Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Of course it did. I am so fed up with the models as of late. Just wait til winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Of course it did. I am so fed up with the models as of late. Don't lose hope, they are completely awful until the storm actually forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 And tonight's 0z Euro run still continues its more westerly track with Lee and says forget the SE. Texas needs the rain this time. Makes one wonder if the GFS will go back to its own solution or will it continue to follow suit with the Euro. I'd like to see the original solution but those across the Deep South do need to be relieved somehow of that dreadful heatwave. If only we had two features to work with to bring precipitation so that both areas could get some rain. We'll see what happens over the course of this upcoming Labor Day weekend. Actually...if you run a loop through the entire model run, the Euro never allows Lee to get all the way to the Texas Coast. Infact what he does is a counter-clockwise loop in the Northwestern Gulf then come day 7 he gets kicked ENE and accelerates into the Southeast... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbWinds_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 Don't lose hope, they are completely awful until the storm actually forms. It's obvious they are all having trouble resolving the track, I am not ready to throw in the towel for the SE but as someone pointed out, Texas needs rain too, so I guess we should be happy if this thing forms up some good rain and dumps it anywhere but Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Texas needs the rain infinitely worse than anywhere in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 08/30 Drought Monitor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 <b></b>Actually...if you run a loop through the entire model run, the Euro never allows Lee to get all the way to the Texas Coast. Infact what he does is a counter-clockwise loop in the Northwestern Gulf then come day 7 he gets kicked ENE and accelerates into the Southeast...<b></b><b></b><a href='http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbWinds_loop.html' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>http://raleighwx.ame...Winds_loop.html</a><b></b> Ah now I see it. Thanks for clearing that up for me Marion. I've been having issues attempting to view all of the Euro's stuff (only getting out to the 192hr) for some reason on my friend's laptop so I assumed the Euro had done what it did previously. Now that you mentioned about that counter-clockwise motion that the Euro does with Lee, it kind of reminds me what the HWRF is doing with him as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Texas needs the rain infinitely worse than anywhere in the SE. I don't care... South Georgia needs it too, maybe not quite as bad but they are also dealing with a nasty drought.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I don't care... South Georgia needs it too, maybe not quite as bad but they are also dealing with a nasty drought.... .... 08/30 Drought Monitor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 .... yeah, and 80% of Georgia is in the D3-D4 Drought, Extreme drought for 80% of Georgia. Yes, Texas is worse, but Georgia is pretty awful right now too..... I'd rather have my home state get some relief before Texas.... The Georgia drought is being neglected due to the one in Texas. Reality is Georgia is suffering too and in any other season it would be much bigger news. 30% increase in Extreme coverage since last week. The drought is worsening around here, we need relief fast. If we don't get widespread rains soon we will see exceptional drought start to pop up in GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Ok I'm not as bad as any of you, but I'm in the D1 stripe in NC and I'd sure like some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 With a cold front stalling out in the SE, and the tropical system in the gulf, all signs point to a moist period next week - may be what the doctor ordered for some / many folks on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 New Euro has 5 plus inches total for all of northern/central GA/AL and into western SC and far SW NC....pinch me, I must be dreaming. I do feel sorry for TX though, they are feeling what we felt when initially the models teased us with rain from Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 New Euro has 5 plus inches total for all of northern/central GA/AL and into western SC and far SW NC....pinch me, I must be dreaming. I do feel sorry for TX though, they are feeling what we felt when initially the models teased us with rain from Irene. I'll believe it when this system makes it turn to the northeast and is on a collision course with us. I've been faked out by models before so we shall see. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 New Euro has 5 plus inches total for all of northern/central GA/AL and into western SC and far SW NC....pinch me, I must be dreaming. I do feel sorry for TX though, they are feeling what we felt when initially the models teased us with rain from Irene. Nice work over in the 93L thread. Do you think the models are going to start shifting to a general NE trend or is it still to early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 ~19 inches possible for southern Louisiana? O.o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 12z model suite seems back on board for sending possible Lee towards the Louisiana and then slowly inland the Interior Southeast...Euro infact dissolves Lee just inland and allows Katia to get a little too close for comfort. IMO, we're likely to have a lopsided feature dumping a ton of run along the Gulf Coast and heading inland for next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I'll believe it when this system makes it turn to the northeast and is on a collision course with us. I've been faked out by models before so we shall see. lol The key in my view is the front that will track south out of the Ohio Valley and stall out in the SE. That will focus the moisture in the SE and enhance the rain chances such that you don't have to rely on the perfect path of the tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Looking good for some rain around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.