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T.S. Lee


HWY316wx

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The one west of Atlanta has almost no signature on velocity out of PTC. Maybe an ef-0? It is beginning to get breezy around here but no rain of any consequence. Rain gauge is sitting .50" for the entire event. Most of that fell last night in one downpour.

Still just dripping here. Oh, what a difference a county makes when the rain is training :) T

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The band that is producing the tornado warnings SW of Atlanta, I see that whole area consolidating over North Georgia and SW North Carolina tonight...that may be an area to watch for rapidly rising waters. Given how the flow is more southwest instead of South/SE, that area is usually the target location under that setup.

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REMNANTS OF LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 16

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL132011

1000 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2011

CORRECTED FOR AN INCREASE IN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS.

...REMNANTS OF LEE EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING FROM THE GULF COAST

STATES TO NEW ENGLAND...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...30.5N 89.9W

ABOUT 40 MILES...64 KM...NNE OF NEW ORLEANS, LA.

ABOUT 125 MILES...201 KM...S OF JACKSON, MS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

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GSP is calling out the apparently increased tornado threat, and the diminished flood threat (at least for the Foothills/Piedmont):

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

HEAVY RAIN STILL LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MTNS AND ADJACENT

FOOTHILLS. SVR WX BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. COLD

FRONT REMAINS STALLED NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT

WHILE THE REMNANT LOW FROM LEE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. MDLS

CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL AND DEFORMATION ZONE

FORCING REMAINING WEST OF THE SPINE. THAT SAID...PW VALUES ACROSS THE

AREA ARE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHILE SLY LOW LEVEL

WINDS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THRU THE NITE.

THEREFORE...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE WIDESPREAD HEAVY

RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE PRIME UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND

NEAR THE TN BORDER CLOSER TO THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE HEAVY

RAIN OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED AND

CONFINED TO LOCATIONS THAT SEE REPEATED CONVECTION AND/OR OVER MORE

URBAN ARES. WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCHES AS IS...BUT INDICATE THE

NEW THINKING IN THE WORDING. WHILE THE FLOOD THREAT HAS

DIMINISHED...THE SEVERE CHANCES HAVE INCREASED. HEATING OUTSIDE OF

THE MTNS HAS LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.

BULK SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN QUITE HEIGHT. THIS COMBINED

WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT

THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT.

COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE FRONT

AND INTO OUR AREA. DRY SLOT MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO END

HEAVY PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS

DURING THE MORNING. HEAVY RAIN COULD LINGER ACROSS THE MTNS...AT

LEAST THRU THE MORNING. STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE

INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE...LOCATIONS

AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RETAIN A TORNADO THREAT UNTIL THE FRONT

MOVES EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE HEAVY

RAIN THREAT AND PRECIP TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE MTNS DURING THE

AFTERNOON WITH THE SVR THREAT DIMINISHING AS WELL.

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