calculus1 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Here's the 48-hour precip forecast from SERFC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 No breaks in the overcast here and doesn't look like there'll be any. We're pretty socked in and looks like rain is finally moving in. Tornado watch next door in Alabama.....they really need that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 No breaks in the overcast here and doesn't look like there'll be any. We're pretty socked in and looks like rain is finally moving in. Tornado watch next door in Alabama.....they really need that. They are about to get a Break with also some clearing in between those major rain bands. P.S. Hytop radar is def. underestimating rainfall totals tremendously! CHA area has recieved over 3.25 inches of rain in just the past 3 hours! Radar only showing about a little over .5 inch. The heaviest axis of Rain is still west and south of the area. I could easily see 8-10 inches now moving into this area and the simple fact that we have not even gotten the Heavy stuff yet. Wow! CHA may break the all time wettest day record which was like 7.61". Kinda wild after the Driest Month ever on record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 The fact that Lee has already become extra-tropical is probably what has hurt areas east of the Appalachians. If this was still a true tropical entity, then the center would had a chance to provide the flow needed to soak areas farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Still looks good for the NW burbs of Atlanta. I'm still optimistic we could end up with 5" 3" by the time this is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 hmmmm....did you read gsp's afd? maybe thats not all bad lol. ... If for whatever reason some breaks in the overcast develop into NE Georgia and the upstate of SC...watch out. Think the slight risk looks good and a mention will be made in the severe weather potential statement... Yeah I'm more interested in the severe chances now , and less in the heavy rain chances. The new NAM looks reasonable with the surface low coming across GA into extreme western SC by 36 hours, placing the best lift in the mtns and up the Apps chain...dryslotting pretty quickly for central GA and most of SC. The wedge that I thought (and the GFS and ECMWF) for Tuesday doesn't look too likely now for NC, so that will probably shift any convergence to VA and Wva. Just seen its totals and now has only 1.75" in my area, tapering quickly downward in SC and quickly upward for nw NC. Sigh...if the 12Z GFS comes in similar, I'm going to be pretty disgusted. For now, I'm keeping my expectations for 2 to 3", but with the bands coming in, its going to be different from one county to the next, just depends on the orientation of the streamers and who gets into good ones, and who doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 CAE is holding on to the possibility of heavy rain....I'm still not holding my breath .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CAE RADAR SHOWED A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST RADAR COVERAGE IS UP IN THE GSP CWA WHERE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THAT PART OF SOUTH CAROLINA. MORE SHOWERS ARE JUST OFFSHORE OF CHS. ALL ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTHEAST ABOUT 15 KNOTS. IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWS THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS AS THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER EAST GEORGIA MOVING OUR WAY. BUT EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...UPPER TROUGH THAT PICKED UP LEE IS STILL TO THE WEST PULLING UP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE FORECAST FOR THE REMNANTS OF TS LEE MOVE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TO THE NE WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM JUST MOVING INTO NRN/CNTRL ALABAMA TONIGHT. MODEL TIME SECTIONS ARE QUITE MOIST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ENSEMBLE POPS ALONG WITH GUIDANCE POPS ARE PRETTY HIGH IN THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL RANGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE DAY...WITH BEST LIFT ACROSS THE UPSTATE THROUGH TONIGHT. SPC HAS PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING THE CSRA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON THAN TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SHRA/TSRA AS PW VALUES WILL BE INCREASING TO ABOVE 2.0 INCHES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GUIDANCE AND LOCAL MODELS SHOWING A BIT OF A SPREAD...BUT WILL STAY NEAR CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT ABOVE CONSENSUS FOR POPS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE REMNANTS OF LEE. THE SLOWER ECMWF/GFS ARE PREFERRED. THE FORECAST FOR THE REMNANTS OF LEE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND BE LOCATED NEAR THE GA/TN LINE THEN CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING PRETTY GOOD WIND PROFILES WITH H8 WINDS FROM 40 TO 50 KTS EARLY TUESDAY WITH AROUND 40 KTS OF SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES IN THE 150 TO 160 RANGE. AS THE REMNANTS OF LEE MOVE WEST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE FORECAST IS FOR CLOUDY SKIES BUT ANY BREAKS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL HEATING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY. LOCAL CONVECTIVE WORKSHEET INDICATES GOOD SPIN DOWN CONDITIONS WITH LCL VALUES AROUND 2K FT AND LOW LFC VALUES AROUND 3K FT. BRN/EHI/SWEAT VALUES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES OF THE TROPICAL VARIETY...WEAKER/SHORTER LIVED. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE TRACK OF LEE AND ANY CHANGES IN THE WIND FIELD FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH PW VALUES WELL ABOVE 2.0 INCHES. SEVERE THREAT AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES/POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BIG DIFFERENCES SHOW UP ON TUESDAY DUE TO TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH PROGRESS OF LEE...BUT BEGIN TO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT BY WEDNESDAY. WILL STAY NEAR CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CLOSER TO HIGHER MAV POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 0.06 inches as of an hour ago but the intensity has picked up... BTW, anybody having problems posting on the "Lee obs" thread? It's not letting me post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Ok now the sun is trying to come out. I guess its working its way up the mountain south to north. There was a mist/fog around in North Wilkesboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avianman Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 GSP NWS just issued several flood warnings for river flooding. FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1119 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH CAROLINA... FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE AFFECTING HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES FRENCH BROAD RIVER IN NC AT HOT SPRINGS AFFECTING MADISON COUNTY FRENCH BROAD RIVER IN NC AT MARSHALL AFFECTING MADISON COUNTY SWANNANOA RIVER IN NC AT BILTMORE AFFECTING BUNCOMBE COUNTY TUCKASEGEE RIVER AT BRYSON CITY AFFECTING SWAIN COUNTY SOUTH FORK CATAWBA RIVER IN NC AT LOWELL AFFECTING GASTON COUNTY PIGEON RIVER IN NC AT CANTON AFFECTING HAYWOOD COUNTY BROAD RIVER IN NC AT BOILING SPRINGS AFFECTING CLEVELAND COUNTY .TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE MOST RIVERS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. REMEMBER...RIVER STAGE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED AND FORECASTED RAINFALL. IF ACTUAL RAINFALL VARIES FROM THE FORECAST VALUES...THE RIVER STAGE WILL VARY ACCORDINGLY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER... NIGHTIME MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO RECOGNIZE FLOODED AREAS. THE LATEST STAGES AND FORECASTS FOR RIVERS CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB PAGE AT HTTP://NEWWEB.ERH.NO...DEX.PHP?WFO=GSP && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Try this with no directions and see if it works http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/wipe.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 12z GFS is pitiful for the CLT metro. I doubt I see 0.10" over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 12z GFS is pitiful for the CLT metro. I doubt I see 0.10" over the next 24 hours. NAM and new 12z GFS are in pretty good agreement how this works out. The piedmont and most of SC has lost the chance at enhanced rain from a damming event Tuesday, all the moisture should be from the foothills/APPS and points west, closer to the best lift on the northwest side of the circulation. The center of the low comes to southwest NC and northern GA, so basically central GA and most of SC gets little from this. Both give around 1.5" here, with a very tight gradient, so further west, increases quickly, futher east and south, decreases quickly. Drops only .10" to .25" in Columbia, even less in central GA around Macon. The 5" + is northern GA, southwest NC and southern TN and much of northern Alabama. Unless we get into some heavy convective bands that train, its no big deal around Charlotte or even west toward here...ramps up quickly though in the mountains. Hopefully the models are wrong, and we get into an axis of training moisture before the inevitable dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Fairly sad that folks in the western part of wake county and towards I-77 are going to essentially get no rainfall with two tropical systems in the area. I got maybe 0.25" from Irene and based on the GFS/NAM less than that for Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 It's obvious now that for the drought stricken areas of GA and SC that this is a nonevent. Like I said we need a hurricane to come up and hit the panhandle of Fla and move NE from there. Wont suprise me now to see less than inch of rain total between now and Thanksgiving. D4 drought here we come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 It's obvious now that for the drought stricken areas of GA and SC that this is a nonevent. Like I said we need a hurricane to come up and hit the panhandle of Fla and move NE from there. Wont suprise me now to see less than inch of rain total between now and Thanksgiving. D4 drought here we come. what was your total June-July-Aug totals? I know we're both in exceptional long-term drought. I feel quite lucky this Summer to have received a few good storms finally. Was almost normal for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 SPC Later today...and continuing tonight through early Tuesday...embedded rotating structures/lewps may pose a threat for more isolated tornadoes and locally damaging wind gusts along the aforementioned frontogenetic zone as that feature develops east-northeastward from northern Georgia into western and central parts of the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Chattanooga/ NW GA area is gonna be flooded for sure by the end of this! Pic of Gunbarrel Road in Chattanooga next to Hamilton Place Mall. Already since this morning Chatt has gotten 4.82 inches and the heaviest rain is still to come this afternoon and tonight. I expect at least another 4-5 inches! Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 what was your total June-July-Aug totals? I know we're both in exceptional long-term drought. I feel quite lucky this Summer to have received a few good storms finally. Was almost normal for once. I dont have exact totals but we did do decent in June and July but nothing much at all now for 3 weeks. I hope i'm wrong but for the region SE of I-85 I can easily see this being like the fall of 2001 where I went 2 and a half months without 1 drop of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kennedy Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 NAM and new 12z GFS are in pretty good agreement how this works out. The piedmont and most of SC has lost the chance at enhanced rain from a damming event Tuesday, all the moisture should be from the foothills/APPS and points west, closer to the best lift on the northwest side of the circulation. The center of the low comes to southwest NC and northern GA, so basically central GA and most of SC gets little from this. Both give around 1.5" here, with a very tight gradient, so further west, increases quickly, futher east and south, decreases quickly. Drops only .10" to .25" in Columbia, even less in central GA around Macon. The 5" + is northern GA, southwest NC and southern TN and much of northern Alabama. Unless we get into some heavy convective bands that train, its no big deal around Charlotte or even west toward here...ramps up quickly though in the mountains. Hopefully the models are wrong, and we get into an axis of training moisture before the inevitable dry slot. Last night @ the Stumptown festival in Matthews they were already posting signs that they would be shutting down today due to the weather. It is sunny and rather cool here now. Maybe they jumped the gun on that one. Hope everyone has a great labor day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 We're now under a Tornado Watch until 8pm http://www.daculaweather.com/national_alerts/severe_alert.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iRoll Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Chattanooga/ NW GA area is gonna be flooded for sure by the end of this! Pic of Gunbarrel Road in Chattanooga next to Hamilton Place Mall. Already since this morning Chatt has gotten 4.82 inches and the heaviest rain is still to come this afternoon and tonight. I expect at least another 4-5 inches! Uploaded with ImageShack.us We are at 6.01 inches about 10 miles south from this picture in NW GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 We are at 6.01 inches about 10 miles south from this picture in NW GA I'm barely above a trace. Woohoo. Quit hogging it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 12:30 update: Well over 5 inches now in Chatt. Looking for a ton more this afternoon and tonight with Heavier rains. URL=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/822/gun2h.jpg/][/url] Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I am getting good rains now I have no clue what you guys are talking about in western NC.. The sun briefly came out but raining again. Actually moderate showing up from Jefferson south-east.. We may need to watch that development just west of Columbia,SC. Appears to be getting stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Uploaded with ImageShack.us This is from the Dalton,GA area. Flood waters starting to rise here now. Well over 4" in the Rain guage since this morning now. Tornadic Warned storms now west of Atlanta... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 warning for Troupe Co. Ga. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 wow - amazing pics of nw ga and chatt. - shows how heavy the rain is under those bands. looks like heavier rain is moving in n ga now so far just foggy and light rain, but hoping for some decent rates shortly. i am tired of waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 warning for Troupe Co. Ga. T The one west of Atlanta has almost no signature on velocity out of PTC. Maybe an ef-0? It is beginning to get breezy around here but no rain of any consequence. Rain gauge is sitting .50" for the entire event. Most of that fell last night in one downpour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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