oconeexman Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Here's my rough first draft. If the models are right on the placement of synoptic features like Lee's remnants hanging west , and the strong wedge front on Tues/Wed, then some enhanced totals will occur, higher than what I've got, for NC mtns. For example, I could see the southwest mtns near the GA border going well over 10" by Wednesday, not to mention the scattered lighter stuff that could occur late week. Regardless, I'm looking forward to a much needed, long duration rain and showery period. Incidentally I'm forecasting around 5" totals for my own area. I'd love to be too low. But gladly take that amount. One thing that keeps catching my eye is how the ECMWF and GFS keep enhancing totals in Upstate SC and western NC on Tue and Wed with the damming high, and convergence of the tropical airmass combining with easterly flow. Havent' seen that much, so we'll see if it translates into bonus rains. For part of central Mississippi and northern third of Alabama closer to the circulation where the flow gets perpendicular to the front, the squeezeplay will easily translate into high hourly rates, looks like its starting now. WOW!!! This will be fun to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Has been pretty dry here in western pickens county sc since about early may, NWS has our area forecast at 7-10 inches of rain through wednesday evening. Noticed some talk about the possibilty that a few tornadoes could happen on monday in there recent discussion since we will be east of the center of the remains of lee. The rain is great with tropical systems but, sometimes they are accompanied by short lived tornadoes that can drop down without much warning and these I don't care for at all! We had that happen a few years ago when I think it was the remains of Ivan went west of our area and we had a funnel cloud go right over our house. Luckily I was outside at the time during the day and noticed the low clouds and then saw the clouds start rotating and grabbed the family and went inside to the interior closet. Luckily it missed our house but, dropped down enough a few miles away to cause some minor damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Somebody want to start a Lee Obs. Thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 It's great to see rains forecasted for areas that actually need it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 [/url] NWS Blacksburg video briefing concerning heavy rain potential: NWS Blacksburg Youtube I had no idea they did these. I would love to see one during the winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 It just rained 2 inches in less than an hour. Wow is all I have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Been watching the radar all day and turns out most of the showers/storms that developed actually provided more rain near the TN line in wNC, rather than near the favored areas along and south of Asheville and Hendersonville, NC. IMBY, we didn't even get a trace today as all the rain was north of us. We are quite dry here as well and could use a good soaking rain. But, off to a rather slow start here southwest of Asheville on this Sunday before Labor Day. Forecast for rain looks to improve after dark tonight, and new radar echoes coming in and developing in NE GA look promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I'm not expecting a lot of rain imby, but I'll be extremely happy with anything over an inch EDIT: Having temps below 90 for the first half of the week will be heaven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Thanks for the update man. My wife stated tonight , "rain... I thought it was already "supposed" to be raining." Been watching the radar all day and turns out most of the showers/storms that developed actually provided more rain near the TN line in wNC, rather than near the favored areas along and south of Asheville and Hendersonville, NC. IMBY, we didn't even get a trace today as all the rain was north of us. We are quite dry here as well and could use a good soaking rain. But, off to a rather slow start here southwest of Asheville on this Sunday before Labor Day. Forecast for rain looks to improve after dark tonight, and new radar echoes coming in and developing in NE GA look promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Looks like the gfs 18z is taking most of the rain west of the mountains. Only 2 or less from I-85 on to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 i like the latest gfs ens mean totals. i would move the distribution a little east. In the immediate area, overall i think a general 4 to 6 west of Charlotte, with the most being localized over far SW NC being around 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 My Lake Charles radar looks like the center has moved south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 My Lake Charles radar looks like the center has moved south. Looks like on vapor and radar its been coming to a stall last few hours, which the models predicted. It may wobble over the next 12 to 18 hours, which is really bad news for the areas just to the north and northwest of the circulation center. The worst possible thing that could happen in central Mississippi now is for it to drift slowly due south, that would keep bands continously training over the same areas that have already had over 10" of rain since it started. Some areas of MS and AL are going to be dealing with a 20" rainstorm when its said and done. Almost half a year's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Went outside a few minutes ago and you can really tell it won't be too long before the rain manages to kick in. Plenty of mid level cumuli and starting to hang lower. Feels somewhat similar to when Irene was nearby but cooler. Now that I think about it, this is almost a deja vu kind of scenario (to me at least) where the first week appears to be the period I end up seeing the most rainfall except this will be from a tropical system and not from consistent afternoon convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Why is it that HPC shows 2-3" for Atlanta and TWC says 6-10" ? You would think that being on the east side of the system and getting days of rainfall, Atlanta would get well over 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Why is it that HPC shows 2-3" for Atlanta and TWC says 6-10" ? You would think that being on the east side of the system and getting days of rainfall, Atlanta would get well over 2-3". TWC is exactly what you'd call the best in the biz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Would be interested to see what the "red taggers" are thinking at this time but it seems like Lee is following its script at this time...no real suprises either way. As our trough and frontal boundary slides east overnight, precip should continue to fill in over East Tennessee and Western North Carolina... Giving the fact that Lee may not shear out much, the areas along and just north of the track are going to rack up the totals especially during the nighttime max which is common with tropical systems...Mississippi is receiving that diurnal max tonight...given the expected movement it will be Alabama and Georgia's turn tomorrow night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 GSP radar down At least it happens now and not 24 hours from now. KGSP 88D IS CURRENTLY OTS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT WHICH OCCURRED AROUND 02 UTC. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN CONTACTED AND THE RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS UNKNOW N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 GSP radar down At least it happens now and not 24 hours from now. That'll be RAX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Does the HPC usually overestimate the precip amounts? Anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Thanks for the update man. My wife stated tonight , "rain... I thought it was already "supposed" to be raining." I'm beginning to wonder the same. From all that I have seen, the upslope was to begin after 02Z (10pm EDT) once the flow into the mountains increased to over 20kts, the highest all day. But, radar returns still look paltry down south and I remain with 0.00" today. Now we have the 00Z NAM and 18Z GFS, along with the 01Z RUC, all drastically cutting precip here in the mountains and especially east near CLT. By about 50% from what I could tell at first quick glance. That's not to say we won't be measuring rain in "inches", but more like 2-4" through Friday, rather than the 10" that was originally projected. I'll give it 12-18 more hours, and see what radar is looking like, before I begin to think this event will really be for central and eastern TN (along with AL and MS) and not the Carolina's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Channel 2 in Atlanta showed a map that shows about 1/2--1 1/2" total rainfall from Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 And now the latest GSP forecast discussion is out - cutting POPS back again as the area is missing the upslope and the main frontogenetical band. Looks like the 00Z NAM may be onto something here, as it keeps the heaviest rains from moving into the region until at least 18Z, which is a good 6-12 hours slower than previously progged. That being said, the first thought is that the system would linger later in the period, but the NAM is consistent with keeping the remnants of Lee picking up speed and ending the precip by Wednesday. 18Z GFS says the same. Given the "late" start to the event, forecast amounts will need to be lowered accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I doubt i'll see more than a trace of rain here between now and Wednesday. Just not looking that impressive to me on radar. Big dry area over eastern Alabama and western Georgia worries me. The drought continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 And now the latest GSP forecast discussion is out - cutting POPS back again as the area is missing the upslope and the main frontogenetical band. Looks like the 00Z NAM may be onto something here, as it keeps the heaviest rains from moving into the region until at least 18Z, which is a good 6-12 hours slower than previously progged. That being said, the first thought is that the system would linger later in the period, but the NAM is consistent with keeping the remnants of Lee picking up speed and ending the precip by Wednesday. 18Z GFS says the same. Given the "late" start to the event, forecast amounts will need to be lowered accordingly. If the nam is right some places in SC may be lucky to get .50 of an inch out of this. Beginning to look as if our drought will hardly be touched SE of I-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I doubt i'll see more than a trace of rain here between now and Wednesday. Just not looking that impressive to me on radar. Big dry area over Alabama worries me. The drought continues. Yep, this isnt looking good at all anymore. We need a hurricane hitting the panhandle of Fla. and coming NE from there to gave us anything worthy of note . A Louisiana hit just wont cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 This is beginning to look like epic fail. After that bullseye 2-mile-wide dry hole surrounded by 1-2 inches of t-storms the other day, I may go an entire month-long period without rain here if this system doesn't produce tomorrow and Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 You guys should take a step back from the edge of the cliff, it's not over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 You guys should take a step back from the edge of the cliff, it's not over yet. Agreed. This event was supposed to start Monday. Yes it may not last as long as the system may move a little faster than originally thought, and the area may not see as much rain as initially thought; however, this is far from a failure yet. The storm has yet to move any: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=LIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 And showers and storms are breaking out over the NC piedmont and foothills: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=CLT&type=TR0&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Lets give this thing a chance before we start writing it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.