WilkesboroDude Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Cone shifted west back across Tennessee and now the QPF goes up to 7 to 8 inches across western NC. I may need to prepare here in North Wilkesboro. My basement is prone to flooding among other things.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 12Z GFS confirms the NAM is likely once again dead wrong. Much much slower, Lee gets a piece of northern energy which actually strengthens the mid-upper low over MS by 48 hours, similar to previous runs and the Euro. QPF 3-5" over the NW 1/3 of GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Bullseye right over Lake James... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 Looking at the radar, the moisture coming out of the gulf is HEAVY. Also, rain is popping up nicely between bands in Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Flood Watches now out for the Western Carolinas... FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1233 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS WEEK... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL TAP INTO RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM LEE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...AS THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH LEE MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503- 505>510-SCZ001>007-010-050400- /O.NEW.KGSP.FF.A.0003.110905T1200Z-110907T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON- YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON- MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS- BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS- EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS- GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS- GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA... HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE... BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN... BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...MARION...LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD... COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...ANDERSON 1233 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA...ELBERT...FRANKLIN... HABERSHAM...HART...RABUN AND STEPHENS. IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AVERY...BURKE MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE...CALDWELL MOUNTAINS...EASTERN MCDOWELL...EASTERN POLK...GREATER RUTHERFORD...GRAHAM...HAYWOOD...HENDERSON...MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS...MACON...MADISON...MITCHELL...NORTHERN JACKSON... POLK MOUNTAINS...RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN JACKSON... SWAIN...TRANSYLVANIA AND YANCEY. IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... ANDERSON...GREATER GREENVILLE...GREATER OCONEE...GREATER PICKENS...GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS...OCONEE MOUNTAINS...PICKENS MOUNTAINS AND SPARTANBURG. * FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * A COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS WEEK. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATCH AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN AREAS OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES...FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION...THE EXTENDED DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING OF MAIN STEM RIVERS...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FRENCH BROAD...THE LITTLE TENNESSEE RIVER SYSTEM...AND THE PIGEON RIVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Flood Watches now out for the Western Carolinas... This could finally be the big rain event I've been waiting for. Haven't had anything widespread heavy like what the GFS and ECMWF are showing since Faye a few years back. The 12Z GFS is the best possible run for maximizing the heavy rains over Upstate SC and western NC, instead of the usual west NC alone. No doubt your area gets pounded with initial se upslope and then easterly lift, working with convergence from the damming front and strong Atlantic inflow in the later stages. If the GFS is right in not pulling the system northeast too quickly and allowing it to hang back in Alabama, then its really going to get bad for the mtns of ne GA and NC, and probably nw SC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 A lot of the streams and rivers are running low here in north-west NC. 2 inches would not be enough. 4 inches would be perfect. 8+ inches would be too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 This could finally be the big rain event I've been waiting for. Haven't had anything widespread heavy like what the GFS and ECMWF are showing since Faye a few years back. The 12Z GFS is the best possible run for maximizing the heavy rains over Upstate SC and western NC, instead of the usual west NC alone. No doubt your area gets pounded with initial se upslope and then easterly lift, working with convergence from the damming front and strong Atlantic inflow in the later stages. If the GFS is right in not pulling the system northeast too quickly and allowing it to hang back in Alabama, then its really going to get bad for the mtns of ne GA and NC, and probably nw SC . Ditto - first trical system to get most of us in a long time. Looking forward to some downpours and cooler temps. Looks like most of the se will finally get a good widespread rain. Seems like we have been waiting forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Tornado outbreak looks worse today as more of the SE quadrent is no onshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevinhmd Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 This could finally be the big rain event I've been waiting for. Haven't had anything widespread heavy like what the GFS and ECMWF are showing since Faye a few years back. The 12Z GFS is the best possible run for maximizing the heavy rains over Upstate SC and western NC, instead of the usual west NC alone. No doubt your area gets pounded with initial se upslope and then easterly lift, working with convergence from the damming front and strong Atlantic inflow in the later stages. If the GFS is right in not pulling the system northeast too quickly and allowing it to hang back in Alabama, then its really going to get bad for the mtns of ne GA and NC, and probably nw SC . I'm sitting right in the bullseye, 6-7 inches...I for one am ecstatic. In normal times that'd be way too much, but with only 1 inch precip since July 5th, I think the ground will be able to soak a lot of that up. Even more, this may just save leaf season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 This could finally be the big rain event I've been waiting for. Haven't had anything widespread heavy like what the GFS and ECMWF are showing since Faye a few years back. The 12Z GFS is the best possible run for maximizing the heavy rains over Upstate SC and western NC, instead of the usual west NC alone. No doubt your area gets pounded with initial se upslope and then easterly lift, working with convergence from the damming front and strong Atlantic inflow in the later stages. If the GFS is right in not pulling the system northeast too quickly and allowing it to hang back in Alabama, then its really going to get bad for the mtns of ne GA and NC, and probably nw SC . I mentioned last night that this could be your first flood event. It's hard to believe that you have never seen a true flood event. I know Charlotte has had it's share. Most of it is probably urban related though. I am beginning to think this will be a very significant event for our area. Nice thing about this set up is that E. NC should be spared the worse leaving most of the rain west of I-95. We can hopefully get rid of this pesky southeast drought. Although this could possibly be a lot of rain, maybe even to much. SInce it seems that models seem to underplay the amount of precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 A lot of the streams and rivers are running low here in north-west NC. 2 inches would not be enough. 4 inches would be perfect. 8+ inches would be too much. That's what she said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 That's what she said. LOL!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 And it begins, been getting some light sprinkles for the past couple hours in Marietta. Heavier returns getting ready to move through. Hopefully this is the start of a 4-6 inch rain event for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Rains beginning to light up across the mtns. SE flow starting to take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Nws calling for up to 6 inches for my area. Robert how much do you think the favored upslope areas like me can expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I just drove down Scenic Hwy here in Pensacola. Escambia Bay is rockin. White caps as far as you can see with no boats to be seen. We picked up 3.5" yesterday but not much today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Everyday weather.com increases the totals for western NC. We are now in the maxed out area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 A lot of the streams and rivers are running low here in north-west NC. 2 inches would not be enough. 4 inches would be perfect. 8+ inches would be too much. Streams here are almost as bad as the Fall of 2007, when the whole year only dropped 21" of rain on southern Cleveland County. Not quite as bad as then, but the cumulative effects of 2nd Hottest Summer on record, 10 out of 13 drier than normal years and just no widespread duration rains are to blame. I'm amazed that the city of Shelby has drinking water. If it weren't for the fact that our water source (First Broad River) has it's head waters in upper Cleveland and Rutherford county at the base of the South Mountain Chain, we'd really be hurting here. Fortunately, that little outcrop of mountains really makes it rain up there, which trickles down to the southern end of the County, just barely enough to prevent complete tap failure. The day is coming though if we stay in the nw flow pattern a few more years I think. There's only been one year that I noticed Hickory Creek completely stop flowing and that was October of 2007: This is a pretty large creek, almost the size that First Broad River is now, that serves most of Cleveland County. Finally got a pic of it recently and its not looking so good. Never has got to "normal" since I've been watching it in 2005. Not even close, except a couple times after an El Nino Winter maybe....but that never lasts long. The deep well acquifers are reeling from the 150" rain deficits here....will take a mighty long time to pull it back to "normal" or pre 2000 levels. I mentioned last night that this could be your first flood event. It's hard to believe that you have never seen a true flood event. I know Charlotte has had it's share. Most of it is probably urban related though. I am beginning to think this will be a very significant event for our area. Nice thing about this set up is that E. NC should be spared the worse leaving most of the rain west of I-95. We can hopefully get rid of this pesky southeast drought. Although this could possibly be a lot of rain, maybe even to much. SInce it seems that models seem to underplay the amount of precipitation Believe it! The only times this county has had an area wide flood would be during supercells that develop over the county and become stationary. We always miss out on what you guys just a county or two to the east and northeast get, case in point, this Summer. Which is now many summers in a row where large masses of T-storms grow into multi-county masses...and pound you with rain. You won't see that in Upstate SC to this area, because of the prevailing flow as of the last decade...they always grow larger as they leave this area. I'm actually pretty lucky to only be a few inches below normal this year, thanks to a pretty active Spring. I was just thinking recently of the least likely area in the Southeast to experience a true flood event, and that would be from extreme northeast GA just southeast of the mountains, very near Athens or just northeast of there, running up 85 to around Kings Mtn orShelby areas. The reason being is that fronts accelerate down the mountain and stall near 77, or the coast. Or fronts hang up over the Apps themselves. The coast can (and does) get Irene' , Fran, Floyd type storms, and the central piedmont near Winston-Salem to Charlotte can (and does) get large slow moving masses in the Summer, like they've done the last few years. North Georgia and parts of Alabama get stalled fronts like a couple of years ago with training out of the Gulf, and middle Tennessee can as well, like this year and a couple of years ago I think. I'm not wanting a true flood like any of those events, but I really do believe this area from my region to the Upstate is sheltered from massive widespread flooding. In 2004 I think, the tropical season brought Jeanne and Frances which I think were good rainmakers here, but again, I don't consider that to be really widespread , heavy duty flooding. There were pockets of counties though nearby in SC I think that got hit pretty hard. That said, the GFS and ECMWF "almost" have the perfect storm for this area, but I'm still skeptical of getting widespread amounts over 5" in 3 days here. If the center of circ. were to head just a little more south and east, before stalling then I think we'd have a shot. The front is supposed to wedge in, so that will help with low level convergence, but usually a dry slot shows up pretty quickly in this type of scenario where the Upper trough is held back west of the Apps like its progged to do. We'll see what happens. I am on board with a "Fay" type of event, which was a very good 5 to 10" rain maker (I had 7" in 2 days) but so far I think my totals and most of the Upstate's will fall just short of those amounts slightly. There's room to grow though if a couple factors happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Nws calling for up to 6 inches for my area. Robert how much do you think the favored upslope areas like me can expect. I'm making a map soon but I think the favored areas of upslope near you will get much like what GFS and HPC are showing, with really favored usual spots in Nantahala and Chattahooche Forests going somewhere near 10" by Thursday morning. If the GFS and ECM are wrong with the speed (and it speeds up more) obviously it would be less, that could happen, as I'm not 100% sold on the complete stalling out yet in Alabama. But then again, if it does, that still equals good upslope and showery stuff which would still probably bring high totals just from upslope alone, even without the low level squeeze play convergence caused by the damming high , wedged front, and Lee's remnants remaining west. Best thing to do is keep an eye on where the converge along the front sets up tomorrow in the mountains and Tuesday. So far the models are painting Tuesday as a humdinger day for the foothills and piedmont, which could easily translate more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 TWC has pushed the 6-10" area further south to include all of North and parts of Central GA, almost as far south as Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 GSP just released the discussion for tomorrow...they're thinking an area of low level frontogenesis will lay west to east across the heart of the Greer forecast area bringing 4-6 inches to most everyone. My fear for the Southern Apps is once the frontogenesis moves, where will that eastern feeder band set up, especially if Lee does stall as the GFS is predicting? That factor alone could be the difference between 5 or 6 inches in one county and 10-12 in the neighboring counties... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 My point forecast on NOAA through Tuesday night calls for 9" - 13". Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 If the high end of the GSP totals are correct, I will have 11" by Thursday..... Looking forward to the map Robert.. I do feel this will catch a lot of people off guard. GSP just released the discussion for tomorrow...they're thinking an area of low level frontogenesis will lay west to east across the heart of the Greer forecast area bringing 4-6 inches to most everyone. My fear for the Southern Apps is once the frontogenesis moves, where will that eastern feeder band set up, especially if Lee does stall as the GFS is predicting? That factor alone could be the difference between 5 or 6 inches in one county and 10-12 in the neighboring counties... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 If the high end of the GSP totals are correct, I will have 11" by Thursday..... Looking forward to the map Robert.. I do feel this will catch a lot of people off guard. Only Raleigh can make a hazardous weather statement about possible flooding boring. A STRONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH AND STALL OVER CENTRALNC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT ANDINFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUPPORTTHE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY LATE MONDAYNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TWO TO AS MUCH AS FOUR INCHES OF RAINWILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING. ....and now back to our regularly scheduled nap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Here's my rough first draft. If the models are right on the placement of synoptic features like Lee's remnants hanging west , and the strong wedge front on Tues/Wed, then some enhanced totals will occur, higher than what I've got, for NC mtns. For example, I could see the southwest mtns near the GA border going well over 10" by Wednesday, not to mention the scattered lighter stuff that could occur late week. Regardless, I'm looking forward to a much needed, long duration rain and showery period. Incidentally I'm forecasting around 5" totals for my own area. I'd love to be too low. But gladly take that amount. One thing that keeps catching my eye is how the ECMWF and GFS keep enhancing totals in Upstate SC and western NC on Tue and Wed with the damming high, and convergence of the tropical airmass combining with easterly flow. Havent' seen that much, so we'll see if it translates into bonus rains. For part of central Mississippi and northern third of Alabama closer to the circulation where the flow gets perpendicular to the front, the squeezeplay will easily translate into high hourly rates, looks like its starting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 South West Georgia has been getting some steady good rain for about 4 hours. That area is very much in need for rain. As for here in Dacula, it has been one county away from us for about 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 NWS forecast has me 4''-8'' at the moment thru Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Just stepped outside a minute ago and you can definitely notice the outer edge of Lee's structure being advected our way...the air has been humid the last couple days but its a different feel and sense. Mid and high level overcast is quickly moving in...things should really begin in the next 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 just in time to soften the ground for plugging and seeding!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.