HWY316wx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I hesitated to post this but it's held serve for a few model runs and figured it was worth posting about. Looking at the GFS, it seems a piece of energy exits off the Texas / LA coast, hangs out in the Gulf for 7 days, turns into a T.S. or CAT 1 Hurricane, moves on shore around Panama City on September 10th and dumps rain on Georgia. I mean.... really? We for sure could use the rain... I guess the set up just looks hokie to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 To early to tell....if it does I hope it stays away from eastern NC as we don't need it right now....went from drought to flood in 1 day. It is a odd track but there have been much stranger ones than that..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Per the 0z GFS, at Day 5 it has Lee sitting just to the west of FL (991mb). During Days 6 and 7, he travels through northern FL and up the East Coast spreading heavy rain and some wind inland across GA and eventually into eastern SC/NC. Not a good look to it and especially after the mess Irene left behind. Meanwhile, Katia is bearing down on poor Bermuda (hard to tell from the chart I'm looking at) as she stays away from mainland around this same period as a Cat. 2 (976mb). Wonder what the 0z Euro has to say about all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 As long as it waits a week we should be ok as the river will be back in her banks by this weekend. The river will be running full but should handle a 2-4" event fine. Now if Katia comes calling then we are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 As long as it waits a week we should be ok as the river will be back in her banks by this weekend. The river will be running full but should handle a 2-4" event fine. Now if Katia comes calling then we are in trouble. 00Z GFS looks like a lot more than 2-4" to me. hee-hee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 00Z GFS looks like a lot more than 2-4" to me. hee-hee Yeah I am hoping that's all it ends up being cause we get a widespread 5-10" event and its gonna get bad, not as bad as 99' but bad enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Hopefully any rain shield will track along the interior of NC/SC and along the escarpment. Here in Cabarrus County, I haven't had a drop of rain since the first week of August. If you draw a line from Monroe, NC to the Triad and up to Yanceyville, that stretch hasn't had much of anything recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 0z and 6z GFS takes the Gulf feature and interacts with a deep trough to provide the feature that blocks Katia from hitting the US...Just by looking at the synoptic setup, looks to me like quite a bit of moisture could get pulled up from the Gulf into the Southeast...maybe another solid "left of track" rain shield. King Euro still going with the idea from yesterday of stalling a feature in the Western GOM, develop and drift southwest towards lower Texas before getting pulled up and hitting the Upper Texas Coast and moving northeast from that point. That is a very anti-climo track for the Upper Texas coast...that's one reason why I don't buy the Euro solution. I think the GFS has the better general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Where is the 0C line at 850mb. Also I am worried about convective robbing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 Where is the 0C line at 850mb. Also I am worried about convective robbing . :lol: This morning's GFS splits and speeds up the energy and has totally lost the idea of a LPS forming in the Gulf as I orginally posted. However, it still brings a nice rain event through the heart of the GA piedmont and south GA which could all use some much needed rain. I don't care how or what form it gets here in, we could just use some rain for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Rainfall totals from possible gulf storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Interesting all the models have a westward bend at the end outside the GFS. Still think this will fish due to the trof coming off the us at the end of the holiday weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Interesting all the models have a westward bend at the end outside the GFS. Still think this will fish due to the trof coming off the us at the end of the holiday weekend. This thread is for the 10% area that's a strengthening tropical wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Goofy had it some days back..actually had a gulf low and and east coast low..then lost the gulf low, then it's back...and maybe gone again I"m inclined to go with the first version, lol. It was soaking Ga. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 Interesting all the models have a westward bend at the end outside the GFS. Still think this will fish due to the trof coming off the us at the end of the holiday weekend. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Wow the 12z GFS (from 120hr) just lets this system linger in the SE for a few days before finally pulling it northeast. gradually weakening it. That's gonna add up to a lot of rain for some folks. One area, such as NE GA, on the 72hr total precip map showed nearly 14" by 168! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Wow the 12z GFS (from 120hr) just lets this system linger in the SE for a few days before finally pulling it northeast. gradually weakening it. That's gonna add up to a lot of rain for some folks. One area, such as NE GA, on the 72hr total precip map showed nearly 14" by 168! No doubt!!!...Here's a zoomed in look at the Carolinas... The model run is very complex in that the Gulf feature slowly makes it to the Mouth of the Mississippi, maybe a Cat 1 if the model intensity is accurate. Unfortunately the trough does not kick it out, instead it slowly crawls across from Southeast LA to West Central Georgia in a matter of 2-3 days...I also think there is some fujiwara effect going on between this in Katia to where the Gulf feature slows. Eventually the Gulf Storm phases with the trough over the Southeast and then by Day 7-8, it begins to capture Katia and sends her out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Bullseye, 12Z GFS paints about 10 inches of rain for my area.... Not in fantasy land either, I'm diggin it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Any and all rain greatly needed and will make me . It is a regular desert here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 We now have Invest 93l.... Lee is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Nice to have some home brew going on this time. Let's hope either Texas/western LA gets it some or Georgia gets some. Assuming it develops, let's hope it does not split the uprights and miss both areas that badly need drought relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Where shall Ivest 93 go, models don't know: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Where shall Ivest 93 go, models don't know: mby please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 18z NAM has a weak surface low in Southeast LA at hour 42...general trend away from the Euro and towards the GFS, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 The 12Z Euro is pretty impressive... Would definitively help with the drought in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 No doubt!!!...Here's a zoomed in look at the Carolinas... The model run is very complex in that the Gulf feature slowly makes it to the Mouth of the Mississippi, maybe a Cat 1 if the model intensity is accurate. Unfortunately the trough does not kick it out, instead it slowly crawls across from Southeast LA to West Central Georgia in a matter of 2-3 days...I also think there is some fujiwara effect going on between this in Katia to where the Gulf feature slows. Eventually the Gulf Storm phases with the trough over the Southeast and then by Day 7-8, it begins to capture Katia and sends her out to sea. Bullseye, 12Z GFS paints about 10 inches of rain for my area.... Not in fantasy land either, I'm diggin it.. Thats so yummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Man... does that look beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECUPiratewx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Best case scenario right there. Every gets the rain except those of us that don't need anymore...lets get some of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 But does CLT need any rain at all right now, let alone that much? CLT is above normal in rainfall for the summer as well as for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 But does CLT need any rain at all right now, let alone that much? CLT is above normal in rainfall for the summer as well as for the year. A good number of people west of Charlotte could use some substancial rainfall...Cleveland and Rutherford Counties in particular. Even where I live along the escarpment, we had a dry August.Of course anything over about 6 inches will result in flooding regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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