Ji Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Could we see a wet snow flurry this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Could we see a wet snow flurry this weekend? Maybe... Sunday morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 blood red sky with the sunrise, thunder and dark blue to the West/Southwest, made for a fantastic photo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Pouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Pouring and thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Pouring and thunder just ended but solid T&L and dump of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 just ended but solid T&L and dump of rain Yep. Thunder had that echoing/tunnel sound to it. Eerie to wake to. Maybe some sun then some more biggies this afternoon? Just need to dry out. Everything is filthy wet. Weeds love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Dumping on us here in Colesville - woke me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 The thunder just now definitely sounded like ducting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Some clearing in central VA... could start clearing in the DC region late morning/near noon. Just enough time to get some decent heating in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Getting rain with some thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Probs down to 2/5/5 as Slight gets removed... good call based on what the newer models have been showing. Still interested to see how unstable NoVA/MD/DC can get as the better dynamics work into the region later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Probs down to 2/5/5 as Slight gets removed... good call based on what the newer models have been showing. Still interested to see how unstable NoVA/MD/DC can get as the better dynamics work into the region later today. 09z run of the HRRR literally showed pretty much nothing coming thru later We will see I guess. I'm pretty pessimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 nice blob of stuff... swing and a miss northwest. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 We will see I guess. I'm pretty pessimistic That's probably the way to go. I was a lot more excited about the potential yesterday compared to today... wind field looks considerably worse, especially when trying to line it up with a decent amount of instability. I'm not ready to bail on today yet, but more and more evidence is piling up on the "meh" side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 It's always something. Should be able to sneak in one or two if lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 That's probably the way to go. I was a lot more excited about the potential yesterday compared to today... wind field looks considerably worse, especially when trying to line it up with a decent amount of instability. I'm not ready to bail on today yet, but more and more evidence is piling up on the "meh" side of things. This was this morning's AFD from LWX TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME STILL ACROSS THEAREA. WITH EXPANSION/DRIFT OF THE PARENT SYSTEM...FOCUS OF ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. POOLED SFC MOISTURE...DECENT INSTABILITY...AND INCREASED SHEAR FROM YESTERDAY HAVE RAISED THE THREAT LEVEL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AS A RESULT...THE CENTRAL SWATH OF THE LWX CWA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. WITH MORE SHEAR THAN YESTERDAY...SUPERCELLS ARE MORE LIKELY TODAY...WITH THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 This was this morning's AFD from LWX Blasphemy - never use the NWS. Amateur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Blasphemy - never use the NWS. Amateur. I was just confused as to what I was reading from Ellinwood and what I was reading from LWX. I see him posting... so we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 28, 2011 Author Share Posted September 28, 2011 I know most don't take him seriously, but I'm curious. What's Mr. Bastardi calling for, for the Mid-Atl for the cold months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 This was this morning's AFD from LWX Looks like they were finding excuses for the increase in probabilities that the SPC put out Looking at the most recent GFS compared to the 12z GFS from yesterday... there were some very minor improvements in the low-level wind field (though not by any appreciable amount... by around 5 kts at some levels, with a slight increase in the easterly component at the surface). Upper-level winds are similar to yesterday, but are actually slightly worse as they have lost a bit of the westerly component (which, although was not a significant change, seems more influential on sustaining supercells compared to the small change in the low-level winds). I guess in the end I would call it more of a push than anything. The real degradation to the forecast came when the instability started to become more decoupled with the better wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 I know most don't take him seriously, but I'm curious. What's Mr. Bastardi calling for, for the Mid-Atl for the cold months? Probably for frozen hippies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 28, 2011 Author Share Posted September 28, 2011 Probably for frozen hippies. No need to be snarky, I'm asking a simple question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 I know most don't take him seriously, but I'm curious. What's Mr. Bastardi calling for, for the Mid-Atl for the cold months? That's not even very inventive trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 No need to be snarky, I'm asking a simple question. It's sort of an unspoken rule here, we just don't talk about JB. If you want to know what he is forecasting, google him and find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 It's sort of an unspoken rule here, we just don't talk about JB. If you want to know what he is forecasting, google him and find out. On top of that, even if one wanted to discuss JB's winter outlook, the OBs thread for September is a ****ty place to do so. Non-sequiturs ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 On top of that, even if one wanted to discuss JB's winter outlook, the OBs thread for September is a ****ty place to do so. Non-sequiturs ftl. Indeed. There is a Winter 2011-2012 thread for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 No need to be snarky, I'm asking a simple question. I'm not being snarky...I honestly assume that is what he is probably forecasting. Frozen everyone for that matter. He has long proven to not be very accurate. So why use him when we have so many better resources right here on our forum. I'm sorry that I cannot trust somebody who says that every other hurricane relates to some E coast disaster or every snowstorm is going to dump huge amounts of snow on I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Indeed. There is a Winter 2011-2012 thread for that. In fairness, it was hard to find...10 whole threads down on this first main page of this sub-forum: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/20084-looking-ahead-to-winter-2011-2012/page__st__360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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