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Mid-Atlantic September Obs


SoCoWx

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Maybe?

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0249 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2011

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

..DISCUSSION

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW

PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROUGH/LOW MOVING SLOWLY EWD

ACROSS THE ERN STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES.

THE GFS TENDS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LONG WAVE

FEATURES COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE GEFS ENSEMBLE

MEAN...WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY /STATISTICAL SPREAD/ IN THE

LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A

SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT

OVER THE GENERAL MID ATLANTIC REGION BY DAY 5 OR 6 /FRIDAY-SATURDAY/

AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE FRONT MOVING EWD OFF THE

ATLANTIC COAST THEREAFTER.

STRONG JET WINDS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE

EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON DAYS 5-6

/FRIDAY-SATURDAY/ AND POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT AND

ADJACENT WARM SECTOR. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR

STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER THIS REGION...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE

DEPENDENT ON THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD

FRONT...AND THE EVOLUTION OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AHEAD OF THE

COLD FRONT. CURRENT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT AND

CONCERNS ABOUT LIMITED INSTABILITY /BASED ON CURRENT GFS FORECASTS/

PRECLUDE DELINEATION OF A 30% PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK AREA AT THIS

TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

..WEISS.. 09/19/2011

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Also from LWX AFD

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAK ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL

CAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES

REGION THU AND FRI. STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AND MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD

OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN LIKELY POPS

FOR THU AND THU NGT. ANY POTENTIAL SVR WEATHER THREAT ON THU WOULD

BE CONTINGENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS HIGHLY

QUESTIONABLE ATTM.

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No an OBS but are there any storms showing up for Friday/Saturday??? I am having an ourdoor wedding and am hopeing for some decent weather...

Thanks

Someone forgot to add the Disc. part to the thread :P

Looks messy in the region (clouds/showers+storms) but you could avoid the rain part of it (Saturday looks drier than Friday). Depends on where you are... forecast is kind of broad-brushed for the entire region.

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It's also worth noting that the day 4+ forecasts are fairly uncertain as we're dealing with a probable cut-off upper low that the models have been handling rather poorly.

ULLs with no precip and no surface reflection are rare in the area. GFS at least shows a weak surface low and a lot of rain now which is usually what happens. It's hard to tell haow thong the thing will stall for before the NRN stream kicks it out.

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We are losing prime nice days. Feels more like spring than fall lately. Hopefully we lock into a better pattern soon.

Totally agree, tired of the wet and clouds.

Just spoke with a new client who moved here from upstate NY and they ask me if this is typical September weather?

I said no this is typically prime time for beautiful late summer weather. Looks like a dreary fall ahead?

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