Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Yea, getting damn interesting especially for the NC crowd. I think everyone from about Wilmington to Boston should be on alert. If we get that upper low to form we'll see a ridge east, and then it's a race. Models underestimated the strength of NA ridging last time and we ended up 50-75 miles west of consensus.... This is a weird situation, and it's only a model run but if we see this continue over the next day or two as a trend west yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 It's moving towards land still at least at 5h at this point. Again race is on, but this is way too close for comfort. Maybe it will be close enough to give us in western New England some much needed rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I think everyone from about Wilmington to Boston should be on alert. If we get that upper low to form we'll see a ridge east, and then it's a race. Models underestimated the strength of NA ridging last time and we ended up 50-75 miles west of consensus.... This is a weird situation, and it's only a model run but if we see this continue over the next day or two as a trend west yikes. I mean't to write CC, verbatim GFS but yea for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 the gfs is almost a very bad situation up here but it will change a bunch more time between now and then all we can do is wait and see what the system in the gulf does and the system in western pacific I couldn't even imagine the damage and despair another 'cane would produce in the NE. People just got power back, and then this. Unlikely, but it crazy to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I think everyone from about Wilmington to Boston should be on alert. If we get that upper low to form we'll see a ridge east, and then it's a race. Models underestimated the strength of NA ridging last time and we ended up 50-75 miles west of consensus.... This is a weird situation, and it's only a model run but if we see this continue over the next day or two as a trend west yikes. Still 7 days out so a lot can change but i agree, The trend will have to be moniterd on future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I think everyone from about Wilmington to Boston should be on alert. If we get that upper low to form we'll see a ridge east, and then it's a race. Models underestimated the strength of NA ridging last time and we ended up 50-75 miles west of consensus.... This is a weird situation, and it's only a model run but if we see this continue over the next day or two as a trend west yikes. Yeah I certainly would not be excited yet, but it really would not take a monumental effort to bring it closer. However we could easily see it go OTS, or perhaps even hit NC so keep things into perspective...but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I think everyone from about Wilmington to Boston should be on alert. If we get that upper low to form we'll see a ridge east, and then it's a race. Models underestimated the strength of NA ridging last time and we ended up 50-75 miles west of consensus.... This is a weird situation, and it's only a model run but if we see this continue over the next day or two as a trend west yikes. you use the word trend at the end there...hasn't this already been a HUGE trend since a few days ago to begin with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I'm not sure if you had power or not when Will was talking about a 38 situation being the only real hope with Katia. If I recall that was a system with an upper low to the west that drew a storm into LI that was actually starting further east than most. That's kind of the rough scenario we are seeing playing out. To me the GFS looks like it's not quite going to do it, the system coming out of Hudsons Bay should be able to boot it east but damn it's getting close. BTW, agree with you on intensity forecasts....not sure this gets as strong as they think. If we have another one coming 20-30% weaker than forecast in 2-3 days will be interesting to figure out why. Southeast drought must be playing a role... we saw how Irene struggled as dry air wrapped in near / after landfall. But Irene never had a decent eye even well before landfall, so wonder how after the impact of the drought extends. I also wonder if Lee will inject more tropical moisture into southeast and make this less a factor by next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Maybe it will be close enough to give us in western New England some much needed rainfall. I know you are being sarcastic as you guys got shanked by Irene with rain, But we really did not see all that much here, (2.20") Not that i am wishing for 6+" either here but we could use some as this area is still slightly below avg for the last 3 mos.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 It's amazing how we've seen modelling do just about everything needed to make this a decent threat for the East coast. It went forma sure fire OTS a few days ago..to something we really need to watch. The ridge that steered Irene so far west seems to be on roids and the models have kept that idea going the last 2 days and continue to strengthen it. Or this could all just be the weenie solutions that the models are showing us that Scooter, Ryan and Will said we might see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 It's amazing how we've seen modelling do just about everything needed to make this a decent threat for the East coast. It went forma sure fire OTS a few days ago..to something we really need to watch. The ridge that steered Irene so far west seems to be on roids and the models have kept that idea going the last 2 days and continue to strengthen it. Or this could all just be the weenie solutions that the models are showing us that Scooter, Ryan and Will said we might see. This. But you never know. I just can't see two canes hitting NE within 3 weeks, when we waited 12 years for the last one. But, there's always a first time for everything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 This. But you never know. I just can't see two canes hitting NE within 3 weeks, when we waited 12 years for the last one. But, there's always a first time for everything! Welcome to my ignore list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 This. But you never know. I just can't see two canes hitting NE within 3 weeks, when we waited 12 years for the last one. But, there's always a first time for everything! It happened in 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I know you are being sarcastic as you guys got shanked by Irene with rain, But we really did not see all that much here, (2.20") Not that i am wishing for 6+" either here but we could use some as this area is still slightly below avg for the last 3 mos.. I'm not sure if those types of rains would result in any difference in the type/amount of flooding, but I suspect the impact on bridges/roads already damaged would result in a significantly worse situaiton from a transportation standpoint. Speaking of which, I think I-91 is still closed up this way. 69.5/59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 All options are on the table, Just have to watch the trends over the next few days as they have become more favorable but far from an outcome.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 It happened in 54 Hmmm. I guess. Odds are stacked against us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 It's amazing how we've seen modelling do just about everything needed to make this a decent threat for the East coast. It went forma sure fire OTS a few days ago..to something we really need to watch. The ridge that steered Irene so far west seems to be on roids and the models have kept that idea going the last 2 days and continue to strengthen it. Or this could all just be the weenie solutions that the models are showing us that Scooter, Ryan and Will said we might see. Yeah it could very easily be a blue ball storm, but it would not take much for this to go...say near ACK or something. It's interesting, but hopefully snowNH doesn't fall in head first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Yeah it could very easily be a blue ball storm, but it would not take much for this to go...say near ACK or something. It's interesting, but hopefully snowNH doesn't fall in head first. It needs to get further south and west before it starts it's journey north. The GFS pattern at 5-8 days is pretty decent...but the hurricane starts too far out to get completely captured and closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I'm not sure if those types of rains would result in any difference in the type/amount of flooding, but I suspect the impact on bridges/roads already damaged would result in a significantly worse situaiton from a transportation standpoint. Speaking of which, I think I-91 is still closed up this way. 69.5/59 I can see in your instance this would probably be the worst case possible having katia make another lanfall in New England for your area and a lot of others, We lucked out here in my area, Not so well in the NW part of the state but we escaped just about damage free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Yeah it could very easily be a blue ball storm, but it would not take much for this to go...say near ACK or something. It's interesting, but hopefully snowNH doesn't fall in head first. Nah. I don't think this is going to hit. Probably will end up SE of Earl's track. These charp recurving storms never really work out for us. What we should be worrying about are the remnants of Lee Unless the Euro shows something interesting of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 Yeah it could very easily be a blue ball storm, but it would not take much for this to go...say near ACK or something. It's interesting, but hopefully snowNH doesn't fall in head first. His weenies already tangled in downed powerlines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 It needs to get further south and west before it starts it's journey north. The GFS pattern at 5-8 days is pretty decent...but the hurricane starts too far out to get completely captured and closer to the coast. Yeah the latitude of the storm is definitely key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 It needs to get further south and west before it starts it's journey north. The GFS pattern at 5-8 days is pretty decent...but the hurricane starts too far out to get completely captured and closer to the coast. Yea always about timing, yesterday many many mets had this in Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Yeah the latitude of the storm is definitely key. it's still moving NNW between 31N/35N between 144 and 168 hours...which is a testament to how strong the ridging is to the NE of the storm. It curves NNE after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Biggest Euro run ever....j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 It happened in 54 And '55, though both of those had weakened to TS before reaching New England. But we really did not see all that much here, (2.20") Quite the gradient in western Maine, 2.20" in LEW, 4.41" at my place 40 miles NNE, and over 6" in Phillips, 25 miles NNW from MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Its good to point out, that not 1 model has a U.S hit beside the FIM. Unlike Irene, where every model was hitting at least some part of the U.S. I think that's important to note. Still 8 days out and I'm on vaca. No need to analyze 168h of the GFS. Time for Golf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Its good to point out, that not 1 model has a U.S hit beside the FIM. Unlike Irene, where every model was hitting at least some part of the U.S. I think that's important to note. Still 8 days out and I'm on vaca. No need to analyze 168h of the GFS. Time for Golf. It makes absolutely no difference in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Its good to point out, that not 1 model has a U.S hit beside the FIM. Unlike Irene, where every model was hitting at least some part of the U.S. I think that's important to note. Still 8 days out and I'm on vaca. No need to analyze 168h of the GFS. Time for Golf. That's a pretty lousy comparison. Most models initially (or at one point) took Irene into the eastern or central Gulf of Mexico, but soon latched on to the end result of a coastal hugger. That's a difference of over a thousand miles. It would take far under a thousand miles for the model consensus for Katia to seriously depict a threat to the US. The only reason Irene was consistently expected to make a US landfall was because the country covers a huge chunk of the western Atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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