CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Nail-on-the-weenie....no one aside from the morality poilice should want this is a powerful hurricane to the east of the windward islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Bri, water under the bridge....we're fine. I agree with you RE winter....folks are going to die....no one is immortal...news flash. I will say this, though....most snow related deaths are more of the preventable variety. You deal with it is as best you can, dust yourself off and carry on. It seems in the past 50 years and especially 20 years, the same can be said for hurricane deaths. Stupid people surfing, walking around under powerlines, struck by falling trees, driving through flooded roads...many preventable ones, too. Anyway , agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Off topic, but still hurricane-related. I have to go to a friggin' convention in Nola from Sept 20-24. Dollars to donuts a storm freaks everyone out while I'm there. Maybe just enough to send us all home early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 NEWS FLASH: life is a terminal illness. We're all going to die someday, we just don't know when and where. if I should die chasing a tornado it would be a far more exciting death than if I went in my sleep. With most everyone on here being a weather weenie, they understand that adrenaline rush you get from getting hit by a hurricane, or a repeat of the blizzards of 78 and 93. there is a lot of excitement in following and discussing these potential storms. Bottom line is we're all going to die sometime. death can only be postponed not prevented. so my advice is get over it and enjoy the extreme weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 ummmm.... the 12z GFS has a very interesting development by forming a cut off low in the SE, so the trough is basically stuck at the coastline. Katia is still going to get kicked, but at the last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 While it looks fishy, there are some interesting model challenges down the road. If you believe the GFS, it misses the first trough and then gets picked up by the massive ULL that forms over the southeast. But look how strong that ULL is. If you buy the GFS, that massive ULL and a 594 decameter ridge to the east makes it somewhat of an eye opener, but that is sort of a pipe dream for now. If you want to weenie out, than you want that NHC track to keep shifting wsw. If this thngs becomes major and gets tugged poleward, than yes it will probably be one heck of a storm over the Titanic. Well the GFS wasn't too far off from doing something interesting with that big ULL to the south, but alas the nrn stream trough kicks it out. This is one of the more convoluted setups that I've seen with tropicals...especially since you might have a TC in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 NEWS FLASH: life is a terminal illness. We're all going to die someday, we just don't know when and where. if I should die chasing a tornado it would be a far more exciting death than if I went in my sleep. With most everyone on here being a weather weenie, they understand that adrenaline rush you get from getting hit by a hurricane, or a repeat of the blizzards of 78 and 93. there is a lot of excitement in following and discussing these potential storms. Bottom line is we're all going to die sometime. death can only be postponed not prevented. so my advice is get over it and enjoy the extreme weather. "It's not that I'm afraid to die. I just don't want to be there when it happens." ~Woody Allen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I wonder if the GOM system will ever be a good looking cane, or if it will be one of these one sided deals (all on east side) that look half extra-tropical from the get go. The GOM system will warrant the most attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Bermuda would take a beating for many days with that type of path and movement on the 12z gfs. Thankfully it is the 12z gfs and is total crap beyond D5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Well the GFS wasn't too far off from doing something interesting with that big ULL to the south, but alas the nrn stream trough kicks it out. This is one of the more convoluted setups that I've seen with tropicals...especially since you might have a TC in the Gulf. This thing is working with a stacked deck against it I think. It just gains a lot of latitude too early that it will take a pretty sick trough to suck it NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 This thing is working with a stacked deck against it I think. It just gains a lot of latitude too early that it will take a pretty sick trough to suck it NNW. I agree, the latitude is detrimental, but that's one heck of an ULL over the south. Too bad that northern paRt of the trough is sheared out to the northeast. The whole thing is interesting, especially with whatever happens to potential Lee in the Gulf. For snowNH's sake....I wouldn't bet on anything up this way, but that pattern has pretty good amplitude...it's just that nrn stream trough. On a side note, look at that cold shot later in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 looks like a Bermuda to Nova Scotia threat looking at the height anomalies...I guess it's a little early to complete write it off, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I agree, the latitude is detrimental, but that's one heck of an ULL over the south. Too bad that northern paRt of the trough is sheared out to the northeast. The whole thing is interesting, especially with whatever happens to potential Lee in the Gulf. For snowNH's sake....I wouldn't bet on anything up this way, but that pattern has pretty good amplitude...it's just that nrn stream trough. On a side note, look at that cold shot later in the period. Mentioning my name got me excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 If Katia is a threat to Nova Scotia, how far west would it have to go before making it's turn to become a threat to Cape Cod and Eastern Maine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Still looks most likely that Katia misses the U.S. to the east right now, but models generally are coming far enough west now so that it wouldn't take much to make life more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I agree, the latitude is detrimental, but that's one heck of an ULL over the south. Too bad that northern paRt of the trough is sheared out to the northeast. The whole thing is interesting, especially with whatever happens to potential Lee in the Gulf. For snowNH's sake....I wouldn't bet on anything up this way, but that pattern has pretty good amplitude...it's just that nrn stream trough. On a side note, look at that cold shot later in the period. Noticed that, The 540dm lines makes into Northern Maine around the 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Noticed that, The 540dm lines makes into Northern Maine around the 16th AMRGT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Still looks most likely that Katia misses the U.S. to the east right now, but models generally are coming far enough west now so that it wouldn't take much to make life more interesting. What are some benchmarks for this storm? What do we need to happen to hit the u.s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 What are some benchmarks for this storm? What do we need to happen to hit the u.s. 12z GGEM looks '38 -like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 12z GGEM looks '38 -like. I'm not that gullible... Maps? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I'm not that gullible... Maps? Lol use weenie imagination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 My weeniation says troughs kicks that thing faster than dendrite 5 day/ posting me last December Huge euro run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Wow Euro way west at 144-168 hrs, but still looks like it will do a quick hook and miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Wow Euro way west at 144-168 hrs, but still looks like it will do a quick hook and miss. It runs katia wsw for a time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 The ridge to the north is much stronger this run compared to its 00z run in the day 4-5 range, all of this is just another reason not to give up hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Wow Euro way west at 144-168 hrs, but still looks like it will do a quick hook and miss. Holy crap.. nice trend we have going here What do we need for it to hook northward from there? Steeper or weaker trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 What are some benchmarks for this storm? What do we need to happen to hit the u.s. AWT?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 AWT?? ? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Further west but still hooks off to the NNE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Perhaps some good waves. 72.9/64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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