weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 I only like shear when it involves severe wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 She is to shear what Ginx is to sandbags and Westerly Me to coastal fronts and Messenger to rogue oes bands that affect none other than his BY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Me to coastal fronts and Messenger to rogue oes bands that affect no one other than his BY. ...or the RUC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 fine don't indulge my dry air and shear fetish...keep being weenie model huggers..see if i buy any of you a drink at the g2g! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 She actually appears to be making a quick rebound: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Look like Katia may be back to a hurricane based on IR and latest microwave pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 As Ray said...this storm blows Get me to winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Back from a family party.... Great turn of events on the models today. I cannot believe the GGEM and the euro for that matter.As we saw with Irene, does it really matter if a TS or CAT 2 hits NE? TS still does damage. I noticed that Donnie still has a 33% of this hitting the U.S which is pretty good from him Not that anyone is doing this, but I don't understand how we can just throw out the ggem. It was pretty good with Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 As Ray said...this storm will blow the trees in my yard over Get me to winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 it's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 ...or the RUC Ryan to surge and Guilford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Ryan to surge and Guilford lol yeah... a top 3 coastal flooding event in some towns in 100 years probably deserves some mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 it's coming Get me milk and eggs.... now Seriously though... I think we need a floydian track for a hit, scraping the NC is a must for us. CMC/GGEM might cause a laptop raise though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Get me milk and eggs.... now Seriously though... I think we need a floydian track for a hit, scraping the NC is a must for us. CMC/GGEM might cause a laptop raise though i mean winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 i mean winter Yea we'll probably get a dud winter.... What are your thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 i mean winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 lol yeah... a top 3 coastal flooding event in some towns in 100 years probably deserves some mention. Don't ever tell me the moon phase is not a factor, just a TS at landfall at high tide, FYI full moon as Katia brushed by, Those eroded areas need to pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Don't ever tell me the moon phase is not a factor, just a TS at landfall at high tide, FYI full moon as Katia brushed by, Rhodes eroded areas need to pay attention. Litchfield's house after katia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Don't ever tell me the moon phase is not a factor, just a TS at landfall at high tide, FYI full moon as Katia brushed by, Rhodes eroded areas need to pay attention. Well yeah the astro tide added a foot... but the fact that the peak surge was at high tide and not low tide was a bigger factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Swing and a misssssssss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Swing and a misssssssss Only 200 miles 6 days out.. think we can handle that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 i mean winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Well yeah the astro tide added a foot... but the fact that the peak surge was at high tide and not low tide was a bigger factor. One thing folks forget is the increased speed of moon tidal currents, that causes exponential PSI which is the real destructor, eroder. Watch the Misquamicut You tube and watch how far a wave breaking offshore travels. There is an increase in tidal power also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 One thing folks forget is the increased speed of moon tidal currents, that causes exponential PSI which is the real destructor, eroder. Watch the Misquamicut You tube and watch how far a wave breaking offshore travels. There is an increase in tidal power also. I'd argue the wave action on top of the surge is a much larger factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I'm thinking about a 75% chance for recurve...20% chance SE US hit and a 5% chance of a SNE hit. Models coming farther south and west in the past few days increase the probability of SE US hit. However, the strong 500mb vortex found south of Greenland with low heights extending into Labrador and Nova Scotia has excellent ensemble and index support which would make a SNE hit nearly impossible. Katia should strengthen pretty readily in the 2 to 5 day range. I think the chances are excellent that Katia becomes at least a category three hurricane as shear drops under 10 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I'd argue the wave action on top of the surge is a much larger factor. I love this pic from Weekapaug, what was a 6 foot dune. Nothing to stop the next one, which is why even an offshore Katia occurring at full moon tide could be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 nice surf and rips on the 00z early cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 would you call forecasting this storm to hit NC a Floydian Slip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 The 0z CMC2, I guess that is the Canadian hurricane model, continues to NOT curve this to the east after turning north and brings it due north, making landfall on Central Long Island on Friday night. The 18z run did the same thing. The National Hurricane Center had also said that the Canadian model was verifying the best with Katia so far, so i find this interesting to say the least. Some of the other models are also continuing the trend to either not curve to the east as much, or to do it later. This seems to be the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Back from a family party.... Great turn of events on the models today. I cannot believe the GGEM and the euro for that matter.As we saw with Irene, does it really matter if a TS or CAT 2 hits NE? TS still does damage. It matters enormously. Irene was only the tip of the iceberg. A real Cat 2 would bring much larger surges-- not to mention actual wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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