CT Rain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 True..there are some positive height anomalies in the 96-144 hour range. However, I think the cut-off can only do so much to stop a strong northern vortex like the one seen in the ensembles and the op. Yeah agreed. The only thing that brings a cane to us is a deeper cut-off that is more able to draw Katia in and that northern vortex a bit weaker/more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Agree with all that is said. I think it's getting further west as it's weaker than expected. When all is said and done we may have another 45 knot hurricane hitting us Given the 500 mile swings in the Euro and other models beyond 100-120 hours I'm not that worried about heights to our NE. The last thing we want it is hitting us on the maps right now. You do understand it's a little bit easier to predict large synoptic low pressure areas than TC tracks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 I think the odds of a SNE hit (not including an ACK brush) are extremely low. Much lower than they ever were with Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Yeah agreed. The only thing that brings a cane to us is a deeper cut-off that is more able to draw Katia in and that northern vortex a bit weaker/more north. Hurricane Bob was the only hurricane that I noticed that did manage to come up here with low heights in northern Labrador and southern Greenland. The heights to the south of the area were anomalously high enough to get it here. Bob wasn't a Cape Verde though...it originated in the northern Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Hurricane Bob was the only hurricane that I noticed that did manage to come up here with low heights in northern Labrador and southern Greenland. The heights to the south of the area were anomalously high enough to get it here. Bob wasn't a Cape Verde though...it originated in the northern Bahamas. Yeah which shows that you need that northern vortex to be more to the north... and let the heights build through Newfoundland. Bob is actually a decent analog in terms of progged 500mb evolution with the vortex up near Labrador and the deep cut off over the OH Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The NHC day five forecast puts Katia in an area that only have about a 10-15% climatological chance of hitting the US. If it verifies on the far SW side of the cone...then it's up to about 45%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 You do understand it's a little bit easier to predict large synoptic low pressure areas than TC tracks? Of course and you understand that the average annual error in track prediction of TC at this point is probably about 300 miles which means the underlying forecasted synoptics at 120-144 hours in many cases are flawed or the error would be much less. The 120h 500mb Euro depiction at 12z has a major closed upper low well east of PEI, 12 hours earlier it had a weak trough well east of there. I guess I'm not really worried about breaking down the Euro depiction until it's somewhere near similar for two runs. The GFS had a similar change out there going from some weak ridging to a trough in 6 hours. 6z/12z. The GFS/Euro aren't terrible different overall at 120, but until I see a couple of runs of consistency I'm at least mildly interested. And as another met pointed out in the other thread so far the CMC has been running near/at the top for accuracy on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Don't know what to add to the discussion today. Interesting to see the 12z model runs today. I'm sure the strength of the system is factoring into the shift of a more westerly track. My gut still says this has a long way to go to be a threat up this way. It definitely"? would not take much change in the upper levels to get this thing closer. I'd like to see the trough axis further west than it presently is modeled. Say over Kansas City rather than Columbus, IN. I'd still favor a re-curve at this point but I would not let down my guard on this one. Still afew more day to iron a lot of this out. I'll hold final judgement till Tues on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The NHC day five forecast puts Katia in an area that only have about a 10-15% climatological chance of hitting the US. If it verifies on the far SW side of the cone...then it's up to about 45%. Great data thanks. I think NHC hits it right on the head. For me it's something to look at for about 15 minutes a day until the models swing it uniformly well east or make it much more interesting. NHC has their hands full with intensity and track. For the record, 5pm NHC discussion on Katia 9/3/11 "IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM LEE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE DIVERGENCE ONLY GROWS FROM THERE. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE...THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN...WHICH NORMALLY WOULD HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. FURTHERMORE...THE ECMWF...WHICH IS NORMALLY RELIABLE...SWUNG FROM THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE...SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT TO THE WEST TOWARDS THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS...BUT WE WOULD RATHER SEE SOME STABILITY IN THE MODELS BEFORE MAKING A LARGER SHIFT." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
INTHECLUTCH24 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 What exactly does the GGEM show for New England? details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 This storm blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 This storm blows. Concise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 This storm blows. There's a very good chance it's windier on most of the Cape right now than it will ever be in association with Katia. Gusting to 35 here, about 30 at FMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Concise. The past couple of nights have been PERFECT.....I can't wait to start tracking H85 lines and not faux, ACK archers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The past couple of nights have been PERFECT.....I can't wait to start tracking H85 lines and not faux, ACK archers. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The cone is interesting... we'll see I half expect a major jump east in later runs just for the sake of the tease, but if we do continue to see the UL develop over the OV I wouldn't be surprised to see ridging start to appear to some extent off to our east. I actually think katia may be a problem for the Cape but we shall see, it's like 36 hours too early to even begin to think about it and all it will take is one run that snaps back way east in consensus to make it moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The cone is interesting... we'll see I half expect a major jump east in later runs just for the sake of the tease, but if we do continue to see the UL develop over the OV I wouldn't be surprised to see ridging start to appear to some extent off to our east. I actually think katia may be a problem for the Cape but we shall see, it's like 36 hours too early to even begin to think about it and all it will take is one run that snaps back way east in consensus to make it moot. that was a significant jump SW with the cone, the last advisory had the 5-10% probs brushing NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 that was a significant jump SW with the cone, the last advisory had the 5-10% probs brushing NJ 18z GFS I think is heading more towards the Euro at least through the first 100 or so hours, the low that popped up on the 12z well east of PEI is getting stronger on the 18z. Lee a little faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 maybe she just gets sheared apart, and dissipates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Much more ridging to our NE this run, the big low pressure went poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 remnant UL with Lee just not quite strong enough yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 18z GFS I think is heading more towards the Euro at least through the first 100 or so hours, the low that popped up on the 12z well east of PEI is getting stronger on the 18z. Lee a little faster Yeah will be wide right with the ULL lifting out. The GFS and the Euro are worlds apart with the 500mb synoptic evolution over NOAM during the middle of next week. I think the GFS probably has the right idea with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 maybe she just gets sheared apart, and dissipates You are obsessed with shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Wow I have been working the golf tournament in Norton the last few days so I haven't been able to follow much. Things certainly getting interesting no? 18z is def faster and a bit further west of 12z. And as messenger said there is a good deal of ridging to our E and NE. I know it is 18z but this is......interesting. What we really need to monitor is where the remnants of Lee eventually end up and how they interact with Katia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Yeah will be wide right with the ULL lifting out. The GFS and the Euro are worlds apart with the 500mb synoptic evolution over NOAM during the middle of next week. I think the GFS probably has the right idea with this one. Something's up not sure why there is such a huge difference in the two but don't really care it'll resolve in the next day or so. Interesting to see heights building NE but it does little to slow a weaker UL There are some hints there of a GGEM type solution, but how many 144 hour bombs does the GEM produce a winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 You are obsessed with shear meh...it's there...it's obviously affecting her...can't ignore it...no more obsessed than over-analyzing every single model and every single model run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Something's up not sure why there is such a huge difference in the two but don't really care it'll resolve in the next day or so. Interesting to see heights building NE but it does little to slow a weaker UL There are some hints there of a GGEM type solution, but how many 144 hour bombs does the GEM produce a winter? The key will be keeping the ULL deep and digging to our southwest. If the ULL starts lifting out like the 18z GFS shows heights will continue to fall downstream and Katia has an escape hatch. The ULL will have to trend deeper and more anomalous with the northern vortex a bit more to the north to really get this thing up here. Otherwise looks like a classic tease that winds up missing by a few hundred miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 You are obsessed with shear If we didn't definitively know her sex, then she could be the new rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 If we didn't definitively know her sex, then she could be the new rainstorm. She is to shear what Ginx is to sandbags and Westerly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 If we didn't definitively know her sex, then she could be the new rainstorm. dang, i don't even have that going for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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