CT Rain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Well about about that Euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Well about about that Euro lol Ultimate blue ball tease? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Well about about that Euro lol There'd be nothing left of long island/new england if the ggem is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The euro lifts out the trough rapidly by hr 84 and if the euro is right...Katia has no clue it even existed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The 18z trop models seemed to have more of a nudge west and less of a bend to the north, but again these have the ability to turn northeast pretty quick. But, it's all about the ULL to the west and keeping heights higher off to the northeast. I would still favor recurve at the moment, but the euro shift is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The 18z trop models seemed to have more of a nudge west and less of a bend to the north, but again these have the ability to turn northeast pretty quick. But, it's all about the ULL to the west and keeping heights higher off to the northeast. I would still favor recurve at the moment, but the euro shift is interesting. the one thing that is discouraging about the Euro is that when it had the hurricane further out to sea...it had positive height anomalies in the Nova Scotia/Newfoundland area...which is what you want for a New England impact. Now that it has moved the hurricane further west with the midwest trough in a favorable position...it has a crushing vortex south of Greenland which is supressing heights in the area. Not to say it can't change, but Adam brought up a good point about the positive west-based NAO being forecasted which promoted zonal flow and a lack of ridging in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 the one thing that is discouraging about the Euro is that when it had the hurricane further out to sea...it had positive height anomalies in the Nova Scotia/Newfoundland area...which is what you want for a New England impact. Now that it has moved the hurricane further west with the midwest trough in a favorable position...it has a crushing vortex south of Greenland which is supressing heights in the area. Not to say it can't change, but Adam brought up a good point about the positive west-based NAO being forecasted which promoted zonal flow and a lack of ridging in that area. Yeah that zonal flow has been key for the euro abruptly turning Katia to the east in previous runs. That trough north of the Lakes at hr 168 tries to dig and raise heights to the east, but you really can't have a positively tilted trough if you want a NE impact. A side swipe or a '96 Edouard maybe, but I'd like to see the flow back more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Irene wasn't a textbook SNE setup either, so I suppose we can see setups that we might not expect, but you defintely don't want westerlies too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 I also wonder if the fact that Katia is struggling and we'll probably do so for a while, is causing models to move it more west. If convection were deep, it probably would gain more latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 There'd be nothing left of long island/new england if the ggem is right. Yeah lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 I also wonder if the fact that Katia is struggling and we'll probably do so for a while, is causing models to move it more west. If convection were deep, it probably would gain more latitude. I think that's a factor and also the models are really struggling with a convoluted and complex evolution of the synoptics over NOAM. It's a high anomalous setup which always makes you a bit interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2011 Author Share Posted September 3, 2011 There'd be nothing left of long island/new england if the ggem is right. Oh how we pray it is..OOHHHH we pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2011 Author Share Posted September 3, 2011 Irene wasn't a textbook SNE setup either, so I suppose we can see setups that we might not expect, but you defintely don't want westerlies too far south. Remmeber we said that before Irene..Sometimes the not so great setups end up producing while the great setups never do like 2 yrs ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Oh how we pray it is..OOHHHH we pray I think Irene was the first storm ever (winter or tropical) that both agreed way out it would be big for the northeast. Funny. I guess there's a first time for everything. I remember trying to talk people down from the ledge that thurs and you agreed violently. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Remmeber we said that before Irene..Sometimes the not so great setups end up producing while the great setups never do like 2 yrs ago This case is a little different in that we have to battle lower heights and w-nw flow to our northeast. We want the heights to rise and for that flow to back more. If that happened, it would open up the doors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2011 Author Share Posted September 3, 2011 I think Irene was the first storm ever (winter or tropical) that both agreed way out it would be big for the northeast. Funny. I guess there's a first time for everything. I remember trying to talk people down from the ledge that thurs and you agreed violently. lol. Yeah I shook the bottle caps right out yo pox For the record I think Katie misses us to the east..but not without erecting some weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Models also are not gung ho at all with the strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 That 500mb vortex south of Greenland with lower heights in the Labrador/Nova Scotia region seems to have excellent model and ensemble support. The 12z GFS ensembles and the 00z ECMWF last night and 12z ECMWF ensembles yesterday have it in the means. From what I can tell, New England has never seen a hurricane without significant positive height anomalies in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2011 Author Share Posted September 3, 2011 It'll be downgraded at 5 to a TS..Lol at a major hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manlymatt83 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Where do you guys look at the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 18z SHIPS only peaks at 75 kt in the next 120 hours. It drops shear well under 10 kt after 60 hours, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 If Lee gets left behind in the Gulf, how does that impact Katia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Where do you guys look at the EURO? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 12z euro ensembles look pretty similar to the op...but wide spread with Katia from the Bahamas and just off the New England coast. Euro ensemble mean looks about the same to the op with the suppression of heights in the Nova Scotia/Labrador area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 given the suppression of heights in the Nova Scotia/Labrador area...I'd say the chances of recurve are about 75%..20% chance of a SE US hit...and a 5% chance of a New England hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Yeah unless you can start pumping up a significant positive height anomaly over Newfoundland you can kiss this one goodbye as it sniffs the westerlies. With a deep closed low... preferably one that is negatively tilted... across the Ohio Valley you can start seeing some interesting solutions develop. You'd expect with a deep negative height anomaly over the OH Valley/Apps to see a positive height anomaly downstream across the western Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Irene wasn't a textbook SNE setup either, so I suppose we can see setups that we might not expect, but you defintely don't want westerlies too far south. I also wonder if the fact that Katia is struggling and we'll probably do so for a while, is causing models to move it more west. If convection were deep, it probably would gain more latitude. I think that's a factor and also the models are really struggling with a convoluted and complex evolution of the synoptics over NOAM. It's a high anomalous setup which always makes you a bit interested. Agree with all that is said. I think it's getting further west as it's weaker than expected. When all is said and done we may have another 45 knot hurricane hitting us Given the 500 mile swings in the Euro and other models beyond 100-120 hours I'm not that worried about heights to our NE. The last thing we want it is hitting us on the maps right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Will this poor storm ever get beyond a Cat 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Yeah unless you can start pumping up a significant positive height anomaly over Newfoundland you can kiss this one goodbye as it sniffs the westerlies. With a deep closed low... preferably one that is negatively tilted... across the Ohio Valley you can start seeing some interesting solutions develop. You'd expect with a deep negative height anomaly over the OH Valley/Apps to see a positive height anomaly downstream across the western Atlantic. True..there are some positive height anomalies in the 96-144 hour range. However, I think the cut-off can only do so much to stop a strong northern vortex like the one seen in the ensembles and the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Agree with all that is said. I think it's getting further west as it's weaker than expected. When all is said and done we may have another 45 knot hurricane hitting us Given the 500 mile swings in the Euro and other models beyond 100-120 hours I'm not that worried about heights to our NE. The last thing we want it is hitting us on the maps right now. Given the GFS/GGEM/Euro solutions I think the most likely scenario is a very ominous track/tease that winds up jetting ENE at the last minute as it feels the westerlies. Unless the phase time is exact and the trough over the OH Valley has a negative tilt it will be hard to get something in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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