moneypitmike Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Nova Scotia destroyer? I'd be more concerned by this if I lived there or in new foundland than anywhere in NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The 06z gfs looks way too far NE with the track ultimately (nearly hitting Bermuda, then NS?) That's not gonna happen; would probably be unprecedented if it did..? Katia should be slower and lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Perhaps an Edouard type track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 we haven't really mad any progress in the last 24 hours re: Katia getting closer to the US. If anything the northern stream is becoming more dominant in the Nova Scotia area and the hurricane isn't getting much past 70W. These need to change in order to get something..but time is slowly running out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Yeah you want to see the low diving out of the northern Plains and ready to amplify and cut-off.... not a low opening up and lifting out. My hopes are for a 940 between ACK and Bermuda. tremendous surf, need some RI beach days after the stress of this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Perhaps an Edouard type track? Ugh I hate Edouard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 we haven't really mad any progress in the last 24 hours re: Katia getting closer to the US. If anything the northern stream is becoming more dominant in the Nova Scotia area and the hurricane isn't getting much past 70W. These need to change in order to get something..but time is slowly running out. Well I guess I'll stop following this then and start following Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 You give up too easy. Even if it goes NE. A trip to the outer Cape for body surfing the waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 You give up too easy. Even if it goes NE. A trip to the outer Cape for body surfing the waves. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 the difference between the 6z gfs and 12z gfs threw 102 is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 12z GFS skims Nantucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 12z GFS skims Nantucket Most models agree on a NW track to N, then a slow period, an eventual move W or WNW before a curve N then NE. I HIGHLY doubt the models have a real firm grasp on how far west it'll roll after the first trough misses, and/or how fast it'll curve. If both fail and it doesn't move as far west curving earlier it is one huge miss, if it ends up further west before the turn we have a real nasty noreaster here. If it ends up both further west and is slower to turn it could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Most models agree on a NW track to N, then a slow period, an eventual move W or WNW before a curve N then NE. I HIGHLY doubt the models have a real firm grasp on how far west it'll roll after the first trough misses, and/or how fast it'll curve. If both fail and it doesn't move as far west curving earlier it is one huge miss, if it ends up further west before the turn we have a real nasty noreaster here. If it ends up both further west and is slower to turn it could get interesting. No way, ten day forecasting is easy, and there is no way this comes close to the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 No way, ten day forecasting is easy, and there is no way this comes close to the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 No way, ten day forecasting is easy, and there is no way this comes close to the east coast. If you say a hurricane will miss the east coast about 95% of the time you'll be right. That's close enough at 7 days that it needs to be watched. A tick west of the magnitude that we saw inside of 72 hours on Irene would put cape cod in the heavy rain shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 This is really close. 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The drum beats even louder........katia ...........katia..............katia..................katia...............katia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2011 Author Share Posted September 3, 2011 BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Canadian 144 really ugly looking for New England http://pic.twitter.com/tLjexQ4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Euro buries this thing to the south so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Euro buries this thing to the south so far. weak>south and west, this thing could go anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Between BM and ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 weak>south and west, this thing could go anywhere Even if it gets to HSE, it could recurve so fast your head will spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Euro is way WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2011 Author Share Posted September 3, 2011 LOL..Charleston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 LOL..Charleston? Weird feeling about this one and the setup. Day or so away from feeling like the scenario we see in the Ohio Valley is legit, but if it is, could be a concern of large proportion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Even if it gets to HSE, it could recurve so fast your head will spin. Im out to 162 on wunderground and it looks like it's still going to miss wide right with a sharp re-curve. Pretty interesting to see a drastic jump like this though especially with some support from the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Im out to 162 on wunderground and it looks like it's still going to miss wide right with a sharp re-curve. Pretty interesting to see a drastic jump like this though especially with some support from the CMC. Euro moved about 550 miles WSW this run when comparing h174 0z to h162 12z. There likely is something to the existence of an UL over the OV at that critical time but the Euro opens it up and we lose the system luckily before there is much harm. The CMC not so much. Regardless if this is not a model blip or intake error, we're going to have something to watch even if it ends up missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 HWRF/GFS/EURO/CMC all fairly interesting. For 7-8 days... in a day or two it may be hitting the Carolinas or the flemish cap, funny to watch the flip flop. Euro would get SE MA in on the rain bands from Katia, our eastern european devil storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Euro moved about 550 miles WSW this run when comparing h174 0z to h162 12z. There likely is something to the existence of an UL over the OV at that critical time but the Euro opens it up and we lose the system luckily before there is much harm. The CMC not so much. Regardless if this is not a model blip or intake error, we're going to have something to watch even if it ends up missing. Dude, saw your post on the main thread about losing posts i think it's just mods deleting your posts cause you're not a red tagger. That thread is extremely heavily moderated and if you post multiple posts in a row they will typically delete at least one or two of them just fyi. They want ppl to put all their thoughts into one post to keep the quality of the thread high. Appreciate your analysis though. I was looping through the 500 mb pattern on the ECMWF and the OV closed low seems to retrograde NNW/NW from about hr 114 in TN to central IL at around hr 156 before moving back east and booting Katia away just in time before driving on shore. What is causing the OV low to move westward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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