ineedsnow Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 well this sucks!!! Kevin about to get his epic flooding? TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE VARIED GREATLY ON THIS FORECAST THEREFORE CONFIDENCE ISQUITE LOW. DECIDED TO LOAD IN HPC FOR POPS. MODELS TRY TO BRING SOMEENERGY/MOISTURE FROM TS LEE UP TO THE NE STALLING OUT THE COLD FRONTACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA/NMAINE WILL KEEP THIS FRONT STATIONARY MAINLY OVER CT AND RI. WITH HIGHAMOUNTS OF PWAT VALUES SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT OUT OF THEQUESTION. HOWEVER THIS THE FIRST TIME THE MODELS HAVE HINTED TOWARDSTHIS STALL OUT FRONT AND TRY TO KEEPING IT AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS.STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST ESP TOWARDS THE END OF THEPERIOD. THURS/FRI MAY BE RAIN OR SHINE...BUT THAT IS UP TO KATIA ANDITS TRACK OVER THE NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 It appears with the strogner Atlantic ridge and KAtia...the front that was supposed to sail thru and give us an early autumnal preview next week..now gets hung up right over the heart of SNE. Days of humidity and training rains looking more likely Sunday-mid week What a beast trough on the 84 NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 well this sucks!!! Kevin about to get his epic flooding? TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE VARIED GREATLY ON THIS FORECAST THEREFORE CONFIDENCE ISQUITE LOW. DECIDED TO LOAD IN HPC FOR POPS. MODELS TRY TO BRING SOMEENERGY/MOISTURE FROM TS LEE UP TO THE NE STALLING OUT THE COLD FRONTACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA/NMAINE WILL KEEP THIS FRONT STATIONARY MAINLY OVER CT AND RI. WITH HIGHAMOUNTS OF PWAT VALUES SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT OUT OF THEQUESTION. HOWEVER THIS THE FIRST TIME THE MODELS HAVE HINTED TOWARDSTHIS STALL OUT FRONT AND TRY TO KEEPING IT AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS.STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST ESP TOWARDS THE END OF THEPERIOD. THURS/FRI MAY BE RAIN OR SHINE...BUT THAT IS UP TO KATIA ANDITS TRACK OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AMOUT the hydro situation is precarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 We should probably make a separate thread for the hydro event if that is looking more likely...and keep this one to any potential impact Katia might have even if its fringe effects on the Cape/Islands, surf, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 We should probably make a separate thread for the hydro event if that is looking more likely...and keep this one to any potential impact Katia might have even if its fringe effects on the Cape/Islands, surf, etc. Seas have not come down, interesting flood today at high tide, wonder what caused that? Long rollers by Katia offshore will be cool, hope it gets to a five. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Seas have not come down, interesting flood today at high tide, wonder what caused that? Long rollers by Katia offshore will be cool, hope it gets to a five. There is a ton of fresh water still emptying into the sound, bit of a se wind today and moon and bam moderate coastal flooding in these parts, noticed the JMA has now joined the crazy uncles party, exp fim kisses the cape, fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Seas have not come down, interesting flood today at high tide, wonder what caused that? Long rollers by Katia offshore will be cool, hope it gets to a five. Morrissey Blvd down the street had water too. The tide is very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 There is a ton of fresh water still emptying into the sound, bit of a se wind today and moon and bam moderate coastal flooding in these parts, noticed the JMA has now joined the crazy uncles party, exp fim kisses the cape, fun times ahead. Uh the inland waters do not affect the height of the Atlantic bro. Would take a biblical flood to raise the Atlantic, like pissing in a pool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 Morrissey Blvd down the street had water too. The tide is very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 You are a fruit...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Uh the inland waters do not affect the height of the Atlantic bro. Would take a biblical flood to raise the Atlantic, like pissing in a pool Yo bra! Like we were at the inlet bra, and like the fresh water streaming out and like the high tide coming in bro, it was like oh my god dude, like a really high tide bro in southport harbor bra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Uh the inland waters do not affect the height of the Atlantic bro. Would take a biblical flood to raise the Atlantic, like pissing in a pool They sure as **** do in the inlets and harbors around these parts............BRO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 The NE regional subforum is truly an oasis in this freaking Sahara desert of a board. The main board is just unbearable. Thank you all for continuing to contribute to some great discussion and teaching us who want to learn about tropical systems A LOT of information along the way...it really doesn't go unappreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 The NE regional subforum is truly an oasis in this freaking Sahara desert of a board. The main board is just unbearable. Thank you all for continuing to contribute to some great discussion and teaching us who want to learn about tropical systems A LOT of information along the way...it really doesn't go unappreciated. I won't say the rest of the board is that bad...but I will say I'm glad that I live in new england to be reading this part of the board mostly. There are certainly great mets in other regions but this region overall is very helpful and willing to explain posts in more detail for those who know less. Of course the best reason to be in this region is the winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 GFS seems to be a step back from the 12z run. One thing is that Lee is going to F*** up the modeling of this system. This is going to be crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 From 100 to 175h on the GFS... Katia moves about 200 miles. Yeah OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 GFS seems to be a step back from the 12z run. One thing is that Lee is going to F*** up the modeling of this system. This is going to be crazy. All these solutions will do, is tease your weenie. You really want this to go west and sort of bury itself into the circulation of that ULL, otherwise it's a fish storm. It's not far from something more interesting over the Cape, but I wouldn't get your hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 lock that up now haha... one model shows a hit now! Better than 0. The mills on the merrimack would be destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 lock that up now even if that were the final solution most of us would just get heavy heavy rains and some wind no? That would be way way worse than a complete fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Can any mets explain the relationship between Katia's strength and track? Several discussions have assumed that a stronger TC Katia would lead to a more northward track, and a weaker TC Katia would allow a more prolonged westward track. Why? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Can any mets explain the relationship between Katia's strength and track? Several discussions have assumed that a stronger TC Katia would lead to a more northward track, and a weaker TC Katia would allow a more prolonged westward track. Why? Thanks When hurricanes are strong and comprised of deep convection, they are more prone to steering currents in the mid and upper levels. Any little trough or even weakness in the ridge will cause the storm to turn towards this area. In the upper levels, little troughs or weaknesses are common which is why storms sometimes go more poleward. Weaker storms that are more disorganized and perhaps not comprised of lots of deep convection are prone to steering currents in the mid levels and sometimes lower levels if the storm is really weak. Since the flow in the lower and mid levels are usually out of the east during this time of year...storms will tend to move more from east to west. This is a simplified explanation, but it covers it more or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Can any mets explain the relationship between Katia's strength and track? Several discussions have assumed that a stronger TC Katia would lead to a more northward track, and a weaker TC Katia would allow a more prolonged westward track. Why? Thanks not saying this is correct AT ALL since it's just a theory that I kind of want to see if there's any truth behind. Maybe the storm strengthening will lead to higher clouds which will allow the storm to be steered more by UL steering currents? Not sure, interested in seeing what a met says about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Enough with the troll posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Enough with the troll posts. do you think this hurricane could be like 1938? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 When hurricanes are strong and comprised of deep convection, they are more prone to steering currents in the mid and upper levels. Any little trough or even weakness in the ridge will cause the storm to turn towards this area. In the upper levels, little troughs or weaknesses are common which is why storms sometimes go more poleward. Weaker storms that are more disorganized and perhaps not comprised of lots of deep convection are prone to steering currents in the mid levels and sometimes lower levels if the storm is really weak. Since the flow in the lower and mid levels are usually out of the east during this time of year...storms will tend to move more from east to west. This is a simplified explanation, but it covers it more or less. what exactly makes them more prone to that? Is it because most of the storm is lower physically in the atmosphere so therefore gets pushed around less by UL currents? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 what exactly makes them more prone to that? Is it because most of the storm is lower physically in the atmosphere so therefore gets pushed around less by UL currents? Well when you have deep convection with clouds extending high into the atmosphere, the upper level winds tend to steer those storms...that becomes the "steering level." Weaker storms won't have as much deep convection and the low level center is more prone to the behavior of lower and mid level winds, so those levels become the "steering level." Your post earlier was on the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Satire aside, I wouldn't rule out some effects from Katia. It's possible heights are relaxed a little more than progged between D5 and 8 over Canda, or maybe gulf system gets partially absorbed but seperates and cuts off a little further north...subtle changes would go a long way and there is some time left to address the details. Remind me of this post in 3 days...could be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Well when you have deep convection with clouds extending high into the atmosphere, the upper level winds tend to steer those storms...that becomes the "steering level." Weaker storms won't have as much deep convection and the low level center is more prone to the behavior of lower and mid level winds, so those levels become the "steering level." Your post earlier was on the right track. i appreciate it, but with a higher/stronger storm is it more prone to shear in the upper levels also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 When hurricanes are strong and comprised of deep convection, they are more prone to steering currents in the mid and upper levels. Any little trough or even weakness in the ridge will cause the storm to turn towards this area. In the upper levels, little troughs or weaknesses are common which is why storms sometimes go more poleward. Weaker storms that are more disorganized and perhaps not comprised of lots of deep convection are prone to steering currents in the mid levels and sometimes lower levels if the storm is really weak. Since the flow in the lower and mid levels are usually out of the east during this time of year...storms will tend to move more from east to west. This is a simplified explanation, but it covers it more or less. makes sense, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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