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Labor Day weekend weather outlook


jgir

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Looks like we might have a severe chance on Sunday. SPC going with a day 4 outlook.

day48prob.gif

...DISCUSSION... THERE HAS BEEN...AND CONTINUES TO BE...REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FORECASTS THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME WITH A DEEP TROUGH FORMING ACROSS ERN NOAM...AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. COINCIDENT WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THE D4-5 PERIOD....SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MREF CONSENSUS AND ANALOG FORECASTS INDICATE THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS NEWD TO NY DURING D4/SUNDAY. GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL TIMING...DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION...AND STRENGTH OF SHEAR EXIST SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON D5/MONDAY SO THIS AREA WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN A D5 AREA AT THIS TIME.

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Looks like we might have a severe chance on Sunday. SPC going with a day 4 outlook.

day48prob.gif

...DISCUSSION... THERE HAS BEEN...AND CONTINUES TO BE...REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FORECASTS THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME WITH A DEEP TROUGH FORMING ACROSS ERN NOAM...AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. COINCIDENT WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THE D4-5 PERIOD....SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MREF CONSENSUS AND ANALOG FORECASTS INDICATE THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS NEWD TO NY DURING D4/SUNDAY. GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL TIMING...DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION...AND STRENGTH OF SHEAR EXIST SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON D5/MONDAY SO THIS AREA WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN A D5 AREA AT THIS TIME.

whew! a day 4 for us? thats rare!

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