September Obs.

[DCMetroWinston]

Triad stations going conservative right now, with highs in mid 60's, but I sure am hoping for highs in the 40's for central North Carolina and Virginia. That would be EPIC!

[LithiaWx]

60.3 this morning in Marietta, GA. The 6Z GFS continues to advertise the CAD even down here in the Atlanta area. Shows East Winds for 2-3 days with temps holding into the Upper 60's to Low 70's during the day. I love some CAD events so this would be a welcome early season strong CAD event if it happens. I would love to see some epic CAD events this winter too, where are my ice storms I'm so used to seeing in Atlanta? They have been woefully absent the last 3-5 years....

I want to research if La Nina years favor a higher likelihood of ice events in the southeast. I don;t know where to start but if someone has some solid information on if there is a correlation or not I would love to hear about it. I think I remember seeing them more frequent in La Nina years but I have no data to back it up, I also don';t know how to go about finding the data either...

Btw : 11 days till Fall!!!!

[NEGa]

what i would give to had a 'year of the cads' for a change. since 05 they have been few and far between, and none have really performed they way they 'used' to lol. maybe this year we will finally have some good wedge events

[Marion_NC_WX]

12z GFS trends continue for Friday Night...

[EmersonGA]

60.3 this morning in Marietta, GA. The 6Z GFS continues to advertise the CAD even down here in the Atlanta area. Shows East Winds for 2-3 days with temps holding into the Upper 60's to Low 70's during the day. I love some CAD events so this would be a welcome early season strong CAD event if it happens. I would love to see some epic CAD events this winter too, where are my ice storms I'm so used to seeing in Atlanta? They have been woefully absent the last 3-5 years....

I want to research if La Nina years favor a higher likelihood of ice events in the southeast. I don;t know where to start but if someone has some solid information on if there is a correlation or not I would love to hear about it. I think I remember seeing them more frequent in La Nina years but I have no data to back it up, I also don';t know how to go about finding the data either...

Btw : 11 days till Fall!!!!

Larry, aka GAWX, is your man. I'm sure he will chime in when he sees your post. He is the research man when it comes to Atlanta weather and can tell you exactly where to start.

[LithiaWx]

12Z GFS still shows a CAD event on Saturday for the southeast. This run has it building in fairly strong even for Atlanta. High of only 65 with steady east winds and pretty high pressure.

[dsaur]

12Z GFS still shows a CAD event on Saturday for the southeast. This run has it building in fairly strong even for Atlanta. High of only 65 with steady east winds and pretty high pressure.

I'm ready for some good cad. I'd like one that goes right on into Ala. and makes it cold enough for a flannel shirt. That's when winter starts for me...when I get to put on a flannel shirt..because I have to, not because I'm trying to get a jump on things

It's 85.8 here at 3:20 so I'm getting tired of the heat and drought again. Let's go cad!! T

[DCMetroWinston]

time to cut some firewood.

[GaWx]

60.3 this morning in Marietta, GA. The 6Z GFS continues to advertise the CAD even down here in the Atlanta area. Shows East Winds for 2-3 days with temps holding into the Upper 60's to Low 70's during the day. I love some CAD events so this would be a welcome early season strong CAD event if it happens. I would love to see some epic CAD events this winter too, where are my ice storms I'm so used to seeing in Atlanta? They have been woefully absent the last 3-5 years....

I want to research if La Nina years favor a higher likelihood of ice events in the southeast. I don;t know where to start but if someone has some solid information on if there is a correlation or not I would love to hear about it. I think I remember seeing them more frequent in La Nina years but I have no data to back it up, I also don';t know how to go about finding the data either...

Btw : 11 days till Fall!!!!

From something I compiled in 2006:

"Going back to 1877-8, here’s the winter breakdown for MAJOR (ice buildup capable of producing large numbers of outages) ZR storms for ATL:

1) 1 was SEN/MEN out of 21 total SEN/MEN (4.8%)

2) 4 were WEN (5 storms) out of 16 total WEN if I count 1992-3 as a WEN (25.0%)

3) 15 were N (15 storms) out of ~50 total N (30.0%) (On 12/5/06, I counted 25 NP and 23 NN back to 1879-80 but this stat goes back to 1877-8, from which I count 25 NP and 24 NN…and then I increased NN to 25 on 11/23/08. So saying ~50 is appropriate.)

4) 4 were WLN out of ~23 total WLN (17.4%)

5) 2 were SLN/MLN (3 storms) out of ~18 total SLN/MLN (11.1%)"

So, if you desire a widespread power outage causing ZR storm, for ATL and vicinity, the best bet is for neutral ENSO followed by weak ENSO. Overall, they have occurred in ATL about once every 4.4 years on avg. since 1879 per my calcs.

[Marion_NC_WX]

The Global models in the medium to long range clearly shows a pattern that will involve several wild swings...

First off the GFS, EURO and Canadian are all in agreement with the massive high pressure progged to setup over the Northeast late this week and through the weekend. The GFS, as we have been depicting, shows a cool, wet Friday and Saturday for those in North Georgia and the Carolinas.

All of this is due to a front that will slide off shore a couple hundred miles...that's where the wild card lies especially after Day 7. The GFS and Euro both keep an area of disturbed weather off the coast, but come Days 8 and 9, that disturbed area begins to come back west as the upper ridge sets up over the NW Atlantic and the surface ridge slides off the New England Coast. Could this be in the form of a sub-tropical (hybrid) system? I think its possible.

The EURO in particular forms an 850mb low in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico...that in tandem with the upper ridge produces a healthy southeast flow heading towards the coastline...that strong flow may end up being the feature that totally erodes the wedge-like pattern at the start of the long range.

Of course its always hard to rely on specifcs that far out but I think there is some likelyhood that the period between now and the 22nd could feature some unsettled conditions across some parts of the Southeast US.

[Sunny and Warm]

From something I compiled in 2006:

"Going back to 1877-8, here’s the winter breakdown for MAJOR (ice buildup capable of producing large numbers of outages) ZR storms for ATL:

1) 1 was SEN/MEN out of 21 total SEN/MEN (4.8%)

2) 4 were WEN (5 storms) out of 16 total WEN if I count 1992-3 as a WEN (25.0%)

3) 15 were N (15 storms) out of ~50 total N (30.0%) (On 12/5/06, I counted 25 NP and 23 NN back to 1879-80 but this stat goes back to 1877-8, from which I count 25 NP and 24 NN…and then I increased NN to 25 on 11/23/08. So saying ~50 is appropriate.)

4) 4 were WLN out of ~23 total WLN (17.4%)

5) 2 were SLN/MLN (3 storms) out of ~18 total SLN/MLN (11.1%)"

So, if you desire a widespread power outage causing ZR storm, for ATL and vicinity, the best bet is for neutral ENSO followed by weak ENSO. Overall, they have occurred in ATL about once every 4.4 years on avg. since 1879 per my calcs.

unfortunately, we just entered a weak Nina, so chances go down for a major ice storm, as I don't see it getting to neutral by end of winter. However, your data shows that a major storm can occur in all phases of ENSO, so not all hope is lost.

[LithiaWx]

From something I compiled in 2006:

"Going back to 1877-8, here’s the winter breakdown for MAJOR (ice buildup capable of producing large numbers of outages) ZR storms for ATL:

1) 1 was SEN/MEN out of 21 total SEN/MEN (4.8%)

2) 4 were WEN (5 storms) out of 16 total WEN if I count 1992-3 as a WEN (25.0%)

3) 15 were N (15 storms) out of ~50 total N (30.0%) (On 12/5/06, I counted 25 NP and 23 NN back to 1879-80 but this stat goes back to 1877-8, from which I count 25 NP and 24 NN…and then I increased NN to 25 on 11/23/08. So saying ~50 is appropriate.)

4) 4 were WLN out of ~23 total WLN (17.4%)

5) 2 were SLN/MLN (3 storms) out of ~18 total SLN/MLN (11.1%)"

So, if you desire a widespread power outage causing ZR storm, for ATL and vicinity, the best bet is for neutral ENSO followed by weak ENSO. Overall, they have occurred in ATL about once every 4.4 years on avg. since 1879 per my calcs.

Thank you!

[Sunny and Warm]

The Global models in the medium to long range clearly shows a pattern that will involve several wild swings...

First off the GFS, EURO and Canadian are all in agreement with the massive high pressure progged to setup over the Northeast late this week and through the weekend. The GFS, as we have been depicting, shows a cool, wet Friday and Saturday for those in North Georgia and the Carolinas.

All of this is due to a front that will slide off shore a couple hundred miles...that's where the wild card lies especially after Day 7. The GFS and Euro both keep an area of disturbed weather off the coast, but come Days 8 and 9, that disturbed area begins to come back west as the upper ridge sets up over the NW Atlantic and the surface ridge slides off the New England Coast. Could this be in the form of a sub-tropical (hybrid) system? I think its possible.

The EURO in particular forms an 850mb low in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico...that in tandem with the upper ridge produces a healthy southeast flow heading towards the coastline...that strong flow may end up being the feature that totally erodes the wedge-like pattern at the start of the long range.

Of course its always hard to rely on specifcs that far out but I think there is some likelyhood that the period between now and the 22nd could feature some unsettled conditions across some parts of the Southeast US.

agree with this. This could be the rain producer that softens the drought in many areas that did not get Irene or Lee. Don't know if it forms anything name-worthy (50/50 at best), but I can see this happening.

[FallsLake]

Last paragraph of the RAH Long Range this afternoon:

.......

TEMPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED SLOWLY OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST

PACKAGES...AND ARE HOPEFULLY CLOSER TO THE WHAT MAY OCCUR IF CAD

DOES INDEED DEVELOP. HOWEVER...GIVEN FORECAST WETBULB TEMPS IN THE

LOW TO MID 50S...FORECAST HIGHS FRIDAY/SATURDAY OF LOW TO MID 60S

MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH.

bring it on....

[eyewall]

Last paragraph of the RAH Long Range this afternoon:

.......

TEMPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED SLOWLY OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST

PACKAGES...AND ARE HOPEFULLY CLOSER TO THE WHAT MAY OCCUR IF CAD

DOES INDEED DEVELOP. HOWEVER...GIVEN FORECAST WETBULB TEMPS IN THE

LOW TO MID 50S...FORECAST HIGHS FRIDAY/SATURDAY OF LOW TO MID 60S

MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH.

bring it on....

This is what I like to hear

[poptones]

bring it on....

unless I'm forgetting something, this would be the coolest it's been that early in september in quite a while...bring it on indeed!

[LithiaWx]

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES...EVIDENT IN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES...WHICH INCREASE FROM 15 TO 16 DEGREES TODAY TO 18 TO 19 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE CLOSE TO OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY. WITH REGARDS TO CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THIS WEEK COULD MEAN A RECORD TIE FOR ATLANTA FOR THE MOST NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IN A SINGLE SUMMER. THE PREVIOUS RECORD IS 90 DAYS HELD IN 1980...AND WE CURRENTLY STAND AT 89 DAYS FOR 2011. OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENT...AND HAVE DIFFERED LITTLE.

We shall see.... I hope we do set the record.

[EmersonGA]

Its been trying to rain for the past fifteen minutes here. Pretty big drops but they never come in great numbers.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

We shall see.... I hope we do set the record.

I hope Atlanta sets a record too. If it's going to be as hot as it has been this year we might as well have something to show for it right ?

[toxictwister00]

I hope Atlanta sets a record too. If it's going to be as hot as it has been this year we might as well have something to show for it right ?

Well since it would be for only one day to tie the record, then sure why not. Today, Dallas tied a record streak of 69 days of 100+ degree days which also was set back in 1980.

[dsaur]

I hope Atlanta sets a record too. If it's going to be as hot as it has been this year we might as well have something to show for it right ?

I don't know about you guys up/over there, but after today, I would be very surprised if I don't get to 90 tomorrow, Wed. or Thur. Maybe all three. Guess it depends on how dry it gets. I didn't think it was over yet....can't be sure. Maybe after the cad event..... Tony

[valkhorn]

From something I compiled in 2006:

"Going back to 1877-8, here’s the winter breakdown for MAJOR (ice buildup capable of producing large numbers of outages) ZR storms for ATL:

1) 1 was SEN/MEN out of 21 total SEN/MEN (4.8%)

2) 4 were WEN (5 storms) out of 16 total WEN if I count 1992-3 as a WEN (25.0%)

3) 15 were N (15 storms) out of ~50 total N (30.0%) (On 12/5/06, I counted 25 NP and 23 NN back to 1879-80 but this stat goes back to 1877-8, from which I count 25 NP and 24 NN…and then I increased NN to 25 on 11/23/08. So saying ~50 is appropriate.)

4) 4 were WLN out of ~23 total WLN (17.4%)

5) 2 were SLN/MLN (3 storms) out of ~18 total SLN/MLN (11.1%)"

So, if you desire a widespread power outage causing ZR storm, for ATL and vicinity, the best bet is for neutral ENSO followed by weak ENSO. Overall, they have occurred in ATL about once every 4.4 years on avg. since 1879 per my calcs.

Having been through a few widespread power outage causing ZR storms, why would anyone desire it?

The best winter weather is a quick changeover to snow, and less than 12". Any more than that and you could have real problems. No power when it's very cold outside is no fun, especially if you have children or pets.

[valkhorn]

12z GFS trends continue for Friday Night...

Doesn't much look like CAD to me, it just looks like the results when you combine morning lows with higher elevations. Often times in the summer it'll get into the mid or upper 40s above 4,000 ft, and in the fall that elevation level gets lower. Most of the NE section of TN and NW part of NC is between 2,500 and 6,500 ft. I remember one day a month or so ago when it was progged to get into the mid 90s in Knoxville. I had to drive through Maggie Valley, and it was in the low 50s that morning. Another upper 90 day in Knoxville while I was in the Smoky Mountains and I got to see mid 40s. And, it was pretty foggy and wet.

EDIT: Also, you're going to see a lot of phantom cold fronts on the GFS this time of year. It likes to listen to climatology, and this is the time of year where pretty strong cold fronts start to generate (all the way into November). It's just like the h268-h384 arctic blasts that are lost all the time in the winter, only more varying. Wait until it gets within 168 first.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Having been through a few widespread power outage causing ZR storms, why would anyone desire it?

The best winter weather is a quick changeover to snow, and less than 12". Any more than that and you could have real problems. No power when it's very cold outside is no fun, especially if you have children or pets.

For those of us in the heart of the damming zone, it's something we have grown to expect each winter. I can't recall a winter without at least one freezing rain event. The most damaging ones are the classic damming events associated with a Miller B low and a strong confluence over New England. They usually start out as snow then transition to sleet and finally to freezing rain as the mid-levels warm. All this happening with surface temps in the upper 20's to around 30 and a stiff NE wind.

[calculus1]

Doesn't much look like CAD to me, it just looks like the results when you combine morning lows with higher elevations. Often times in the summer it'll get into the mid or upper 40s above 4,000 ft, and in the fall that elevation level gets lower. Most of the NE section of TN and NW part of NC is between 2,500 and 6,500 ft. I remember one day a month or so ago when it was progged to get into the mid 90s in Knoxville. I had to drive through Maggie Valley, and it was in the low 50s that morning. Another upper 90 day in Knoxville while I was in the Smoky Mountains and I got to see mid 40s. And, it was pretty foggy and wet.

When you say most of NW NC is above 2500 feet, you can only be referring to the border counties. It is all below 2500 feet in NW NC when you get away from Ashe, Watauga, Avery, etc. Here are the progged temps from the 18Z GFS run for early Saturday morning. This is all CAD with much cooler temps down the east side of the Apps than down the west (about a 10 degree difference).

Edit: This is also only out to hour 114 on the 18Z GFS, much sooner than your suggested cut-off of hour 168. With each run, this damming event is looking more and more likely. I for one, am very much looking forward to it. I hope the rain overtakes the area, as well. There's nothing quite like a cool, rainy day to get you in the mood for fall!

[snowman22]

When you say most of NW NC is above 2500 feet, you can only be referring to the border counties. It is all below 2500 feet in NW NC when you get away from Ashe, Watauga, Avery, etc. Here are the progged temps from the 18Z GFS run for early Saturday morning. This is all CAD with much cooler temps down the east side of the Apps than down the west (about a 10 degree difference).

Edit: This is also only out to hour 114 on the 18Z GFS, much sooner than your suggested cut-off of hour 168. With each run, this damming event is looking more and more likely. I for one, am very much looking forward to it. I hope the rain overtakes the area, as well. There's nothing quite like a cool, rainy day to get you in the mood for fall!

Bout to make me cry, a cold, rainy Saturday.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Doesn't much look like CAD to me, it just looks like the results when you combine morning lows with higher elevations. Often times in the summer it'll get into the mid or upper 40s above 4,000 ft, and in the fall that elevation level gets lower.

EDIT: Also, you're going to see a lot of phantom cold fronts on the GFS this time of year. It likes to listen to climatology, and this is the time of year where pretty strong cold fronts start to generate (all the way into November). It's just like the h268-h384 arctic blasts that are lost all the time in the winter, only more varying. Wait until it gets within 168 first.

The temp map of the Carolinas I posted from the 12z GFS was the progged max temps at 0z Saturday (8 pm Friday)...That's nowhere near the Saturday morning low. Notice the low 70's over Atlanta and low 50's along the I-40 cooridor...that's a wedge-type signature if I've ever seen one. BTW 0z Saturday is 108 hours away...

[strongwxnc]

Looks great! Got a 8k Saturday morning and that weather is going to feel great!!

Bout to make me cry, a cold, rainy Saturday.

[valkhorn]

When you say most of NW NC is above 2500 feet, you can only be referring to the border counties. It is all below 2500 feet in NW NC when you get away from Ashe, Watauga, Avery, etc. Here are the progged temps from the 18Z GFS run for early Saturday morning. This is all CAD with much cooler temps down the east side of the Apps than down the west (about a 10 degree difference).

Edit: This is also only out to hour 114 on the 18Z GFS, much sooner than your suggested cut-off of hour 168. With each run, this damming event is looking more and more likely. I for one, am very much looking forward to it. I hope the rain overtakes the area, as well. There's nothing quite like a cool, rainy day to get you in the mood for fall!

That's more like CAD. The earlier map was quite different.

[strongwxnc]

Via @eastwx (Matthew East)

Extremely impressive cold air damming setup coming Friday into weekend. Wait til you see the temps! #ncwx