DaculaWeather Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 I'm wondering if this area of rain in Alabama will follow the winds and curve slightly north and maybe give us some showers today. I can always hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Wondering where my recently updated to 70% chance of showers/storms likely this afternoon is going to materialize from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Found a great map of that shows how Mecklenburg County is a rain magnet. As well as the surrounding counties. Anyone have any idea why and how this is? It's very interesting. http://mediacdn.disqus.com/uploads/mediaembed/images/149/3295/original.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 The weather is gorgeous in the Tri-Cities. I'm sitting outside on campus enjoying partly cloudy skies and a temperature of 70 degrees. Rain never fully materialized last night, as the broken line rolled through as primarily drizzle and amounted to .06". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Found a great map of that shows how Mecklenburg County is a rain magnet. As well as the surrounding counties. Anyone have any idea why and how this is? It's very interesting. http://mediacdn.disq...95/original.jpg It's temp dependent. Below 32.1 degrees the effect disappears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 27, 2011 Author Share Posted September 27, 2011 12Z GFS 10/2/2011 - Sunday Morning 20's in the mountains, with 30's and 40's elsewhere. If this verifies even close it is going to feel mighty fine!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 12Z GFS 10/2/2011 - Sunday Morning 20's in the mountains, with 30's and 40's elsewhere. If this verifies even close it is going to feel mighty fine!!! Oh man that is a pretty site to see cause I am sitting here with 87.3 sweltering degrees still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Hoping those temps verify but they wont here I bet maybe upper 40's but 41 is a stretch, although I would love to see it, deer gun season fast approaches and its much better to sit in the stand with temps in the 40-50 vs 60-70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 70% just became 50%. They musta looked outside and saw there weren't many clouds around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Up to 10.4'' for the month after last night/early this morning. Still plenty of water standing in low spots around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 .09" last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Virtually nothing once again. I sure will be glad when late fall/winter gets here and I will actually have something to want to talk about. Had bout .6" this morning. BUT +1 on having something to talk about!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 50% chance has been downgraded to 30% chance. I'm in shock. *sarcasm* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 27, 2011 Author Share Posted September 27, 2011 18Z GFS Sunday Morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Virtually nothing once again. I sure will be glad when late fall/winter gets here and I will actually have something to want to talk about. I was looking at radars a lot last week, and the precip. estimates page and noticed quite a gap over your area. I figured you were getting shafted. Its unusual that I've lucked up, but just down the road from me, plenty of posters in the Upstate missed out as well. I feel extremely lucky for once, over this last Spring and Summer. I'm normal. The 5" rain recently puts me near normal this year I think. Slight changes in the flow, versus last few Summers, made a difference here, but just a fraction of a few miles and it would have been about the same as last year. Found a great map of that shows how Mecklenburg County is a rain magnet. As well as the surrounding counties. Anyone have any idea why and how this is? It's very interesting. http://mediacdn.disq...95/original.jpg Did you read my drought study? I pointed out why the I-77 corridor has had surpluses in the Summer and Fall months, and that usually comes at the expense of areas just immediately west in the lower foothills and Upstate/NE GA region. The lee of the Smokies is ground zero for the historic drought that goes on. From my immediate area to north central Spartanburg county has 140" rainfall deficits going back to 1998. I proved that in the study with extreme detail. I won't re-hash it, but the gist is that southwest flow has vanished in Summer. Obviously, we all can see that , atleast those of us who have been on line and following the weather the last decade during the Summer months. We rarely ever get into the southwest Bermuda flow anymore, and that has made all the difference. Instead, we deal with ridges that begin in early June, and last through September a lot of years. This is northwest flow into the lee of the Apps, which actually helps convergence right near Gastonia/Charlotte/Concord/Statesville. The precip estimates maps bear it out as well. Like I said above, I got extremely lucky this Summer. Still, the crops bit the dust in July, thanks to extreme heat and too little rain. No big masses of rain here or the upstate or much of GA this time as well. I'm not sure what made this new flow occur around 1998 or 1999, but something did. If you go to NCDC, you can see the old maps showing the Bermuda ridge. All the rain the last week or 2 is what happens when you get a Bermuda ridge (plus this time a closed low to the west). Used to happen frequently , even in Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Dry as a bone again, and hot! It was only 2 off 90 a couple of days ago. I'm getting really ready for a night in the 40's, if that is the only interesting weather I can have But I guess I'd be willing to trade that night in the 40's for some rain. Dang, that hurt to say, but 2.63 for the month will make you say crazy things. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Right on cue, storms are firing through Charlotte. Been a crazy few days of rain training through this area over and over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 amazingly, happening again tonight in CLT area. How many nights does this make? There's been a record number of severe thunderstorm warnings and/or Flood warnings in Meck. county this year I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Right on cue, storms are firing through Charlotte. Been a crazy few days of rain training through this area over and over again. even hail with this tonight...pretty odd for late September. I can see the lightning..once again I can't ever recall seeing so much lightning and hearing this much thunder in September before, in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevinhmd Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 18Z GFS Sunday Morning That blip of 20's is just a county or so away from me....will be interesting to see if I hit that. That'd be way earlier than my first freeze last year for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 That blip of 20's is just a county or so away from me....will be interesting to see if I hit that. That'd be way earlier than my first freeze last year for sure... I think the 20's will be a little hard to get to, but records are going to be very, very close. The GFS looks reasonable, and usually beats the ECMWF at this range on surface temps, especially absent any precip. Here's some records at sites: Sunday October 2nd Charlotte 36 GSP 37 Atlanta 42 Knoxville 36 I think all sites are going to be within a couple of degrees of reaching the record. Of course, it comes down to radiating conditions this time of year especially. The high on Sunday morning looks to be in Kentucky or thereabouts. Also, Monday morning could be equally as cold with High pressure almost directly overhead and little to no wind. I'm sure some sites will hit a record low, but hard to say exactly which place it will be. Some of these had the record low on Oct 2nd go back to 1899, ironically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 This wetness is causing a huge plague of mosquitos. Bring on a dry autumnal October! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 This wetness is causing a huge plague of mosquitos. Bring on a dry autumnal October! I definitely agree. I sat on the porch a couple nights this week and got bit. Thats not ever happened at my place since I've lived here in 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 I was looking at radars a lot last week, and the precip. estimates page and noticed quite a gap over your area. I figured you were getting shafted. Its unusual that I've lucked up, but just down the road from me, plenty of posters in the Upstate missed out as well. I feel extremely lucky for once, over this last Spring and Summer. I'm normal. The 5" rain recently puts me near normal this year I think. Slight changes in the flow, versus last few Summers, made a difference here, but just a fraction of a few miles and it would have been about the same as last year. Did you read my drought study? I pointed out why the I-77 corridor has had surpluses in the Summer and Fall months, and that usually comes at the expense of areas just immediately west in the lower foothills and Upstate/NE GA region. The lee of the Smokies is ground zero for the historic drought that goes on. From my immediate area to north central Spartanburg county has 140" rainfall deficits going back to 1998. I proved that in the study with extreme detail. I won't re-hash it, but the gist is that southwest flow has vanished in Summer. Obviously, we all can see that , atleast those of us who have been on line and following the weather the last decade during the Summer months. We rarely ever get into the southwest Bermuda flow anymore, and that has made all the difference. Instead, we deal with ridges that begin in early June, and last through September a lot of years. This is northwest flow into the lee of the Apps, which actually helps convergence right near Gastonia/Charlotte/Concord/Statesville. The precip estimates maps bear it out as well. Like I said above, I got extremely lucky this Summer. Still, the crops bit the dust in July, thanks to extreme heat and too little rain. No big masses of rain here or the upstate or much of GA this time as well. I'm not sure what made this new flow occur around 1998 or 1999, but something did. If you go to NCDC, you can see the old maps showing the Bermuda ridge. All the rain the last week or 2 is what happens when you get a Bermuda ridge (plus this time a closed low to the west). Used to happen frequently , even in Summer. I actually haven't read your study yet. But I would love too. Do you have the link? And like magic storms fired up right over the "rain magnet" tonight. Storms seem to love Charlotte especially at night. It will be nice to have a break from this humidity and rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Boy I'm getting hammered right now. Lots of cloud to ground and several close enough to hear the "click". My dogs are trying to climb in the chair with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Good set of storms about to hit Greensboro, lots of lighting this way. I agree I could use a small dry spell constant days of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 I definitely agree. I sat on the porch a couple nights this week and got bit. Thats not ever happened at my place since I've lived here in 2003. LOL....no mosquitos, in the south? That's sure fire evidence of a prolonged drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 0.29" overnight. Great ightning display ~2am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Just a few freckles of raindrops on the car - nothing dripped into the inner tube of the gauge. Starting out very muggy this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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