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September Obs.


LithiaWx

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Virtually nothing once again. I sure will be glad when late fall/winter gets here and I will actually have something to want to talk about.

I was looking at radars a lot last week, and the precip. estimates page and noticed quite a gap over your area. I figured you were getting shafted. Its unusual that I've lucked up, but just down the road from me, plenty of posters in the Upstate missed out as well. I feel extremely lucky for once, over this last Spring and Summer. I'm normal. The 5" rain recently puts me near normal this year I think. Slight changes in the flow, versus last few Summers, made a difference here, but just a fraction of a few miles and it would have been about the same as last year.

Found a great map of that shows how Mecklenburg County is a rain magnet. As well as the surrounding counties. Anyone have any idea why and how this is? It's very interesting.

http://mediacdn.disq...95/original.jpg

Did you read my drought study? I pointed out why the I-77 corridor has had surpluses in the Summer and Fall months, and that usually comes at the expense of areas just immediately west in the lower foothills and Upstate/NE GA region. The lee of the Smokies is ground zero for the historic drought that goes on. From my immediate area to north central Spartanburg county has 140" rainfall deficits going back to 1998. I proved that in the study with extreme detail. I won't re-hash it, but the gist is that southwest flow has vanished in Summer. Obviously, we all can see that , atleast those of us who have been on line and following the weather the last decade during the Summer months. We rarely ever get into the southwest Bermuda flow anymore, and that has made all the difference. Instead, we deal with ridges that begin in early June, and last through September a lot of years. This is northwest flow into the lee of the Apps, which actually helps convergence right near Gastonia/Charlotte/Concord/Statesville. The precip estimates maps bear it out as well. Like I said above, I got extremely lucky this Summer. Still, the crops bit the dust in July, thanks to extreme heat and too little rain. No big masses of rain here or the upstate or much of GA this time as well. I'm not sure what made this new flow occur around 1998 or 1999, but something did. If you go to NCDC, you can see the old maps showing the Bermuda ridge. All the rain the last week or 2 is what happens when you get a Bermuda ridge (plus this time a closed low to the west). Used to happen frequently , even in Summer.

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Dry as a bone again, and hot! It was only 2 off 90 a couple of days ago. I'm getting really ready for a night in the 40's, if that is the only interesting weather I can have :) But I guess I'd be willing to trade that night in the 40's for some rain. Dang, that hurt to say, but 2.63 for the month will make you say crazy things. T

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Right on cue, storms are firing through Charlotte. Been a crazy few days of rain training through this area over and over again.

even hail with this tonight...pretty odd for late September. I can see the lightning..once again I can't ever recall seeing so much lightning and hearing this much thunder in September before, in my lifetime.

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That blip of 20's is just a county or so away from me....will be interesting to see if I hit that. That'd be way earlier than my first freeze last year for sure...

I think the 20's will be a little hard to get to, but records are going to be very, very close. The GFS looks reasonable, and usually beats the ECMWF at this range on surface temps, especially absent any precip. Here's some records at sites:

Sunday October 2nd

Charlotte 36

GSP 37

Atlanta 42

Knoxville 36

I think all sites are going to be within a couple of degrees of reaching the record. Of course, it comes down to radiating conditions this time of year especially. The high on Sunday morning looks to be in Kentucky or thereabouts. Also, Monday morning could be equally as cold with High pressure almost directly overhead and little to no wind. I'm sure some sites will hit a record low, but hard to say exactly which place it will be. Some of these had the record low on Oct 2nd go back to 1899, ironically.

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I was looking at radars a lot last week, and the precip. estimates page and noticed quite a gap over your area. I figured you were getting shafted. Its unusual that I've lucked up, but just down the road from me, plenty of posters in the Upstate missed out as well. I feel extremely lucky for once, over this last Spring and Summer. I'm normal. The 5" rain recently puts me near normal this year I think. Slight changes in the flow, versus last few Summers, made a difference here, but just a fraction of a few miles and it would have been about the same as last year.

Did you read my drought study? I pointed out why the I-77 corridor has had surpluses in the Summer and Fall months, and that usually comes at the expense of areas just immediately west in the lower foothills and Upstate/NE GA region. The lee of the Smokies is ground zero for the historic drought that goes on. From my immediate area to north central Spartanburg county has 140" rainfall deficits going back to 1998. I proved that in the study with extreme detail. I won't re-hash it, but the gist is that southwest flow has vanished in Summer. Obviously, we all can see that , atleast those of us who have been on line and following the weather the last decade during the Summer months. We rarely ever get into the southwest Bermuda flow anymore, and that has made all the difference. Instead, we deal with ridges that begin in early June, and last through September a lot of years. This is northwest flow into the lee of the Apps, which actually helps convergence right near Gastonia/Charlotte/Concord/Statesville. The precip estimates maps bear it out as well. Like I said above, I got extremely lucky this Summer. Still, the crops bit the dust in July, thanks to extreme heat and too little rain. No big masses of rain here or the upstate or much of GA this time as well. I'm not sure what made this new flow occur around 1998 or 1999, but something did. If you go to NCDC, you can see the old maps showing the Bermuda ridge. All the rain the last week or 2 is what happens when you get a Bermuda ridge (plus this time a closed low to the west). Used to happen frequently , even in Summer.

I actually haven't read your study yet. But I would love too. Do you have the link? And like magic storms fired up right over the "rain magnet" tonight. thumbsupsmileyanim.gif Storms seem to love Charlotte especially at night. It will be nice to have a break from this humidity and rain though.

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