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September Obs.


LithiaWx

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This all sound fantastic Robert! Where is this cooler air coming from? I went and looked at places like ND and MN and that does not seem to be the source of the intrusion. The Mid-west is where I would typically look for a cold blast coming in from this tie of year and it's not there.

Big time amplification of a deep eastern trough next weekend. Canadian high will slide down from Canada, bypassing the northern plains (ridging in Plains and West). This time, it doesn't look like we'll deal with the CAD like we had the previous cold air episode. Just sunny, and cool. I haven't seen the sun in seems like forever now. There have been a couple afternoons with just a quick peek.

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It's been raining lightly for seven hours now. Most of the time, it's a light mist that almost looks like snow against a dark background. The spider webs along the roads and fields are holding the mist and look like large patches of Angel Hair. Very unusual. Nothing is showing on radar. Temp is 68 degrees. Here's a photo I made last evening just before sunset over Lake Lure toward Rumbling Bald Mountain. Mount Shumont at 3,900 feet is in the clouds.

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the GFS still has the impressive strong cold blast. It did ok with the damming event a weekend ago, in fact nailing the record low "max" temps in the Carolinas and Virginia, beating the ECMWF easily. Lets see if its onto something again. One big fly in the ointment with this weekend is the possibility of the trough being so deep, that it develops a new England gale. If that happens, it forces colder air aloft down into the Southeast, but the winds would stay up a little, and the surface high parks itself pretty far west , until maybe around late Sunday or Monday when it gets directly overhead. Still would be an advective freeze possibly in the mountains one night, and radiational cooling would be good probably Sunday evening well down into the Tenn Valley and Southeast piedmont. Not to mention, I'm still liking the chances of the first flakes of the season in West VA, NC and ne TN mountains, the highest of peaks only. The deeper the trough, the better the chances of flakes, but at this point, no accumulations of course, just for token mention.

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Its getting pretty steamy when the sun breaks through the clouds today. Currently 82o. Radar is showing a decent line of showers with a few storms embedded coming into the state. Hopefully I can pick up a few tenths and add to what has already been a wet month.

the GFS still has the impressive strong cold blast. It did ok with the damming event a weekend ago, in fact nailing the record low "max" temps in the Carolinas and Virginia, beating the ECMWF easily. Lets see if its onto something again. One big fly in the ointment with this weekend is the possibility of the trough being so deep, that it develops a new England gale. If that happens, it forces colder air aloft down into the Southeast, but the winds would stay up a little, and the surface high parks itself pretty far west , until maybe around late Sunday or Monday when it gets directly overhead. Still would be an advective freeze possibly in the mountains one night, and radiational cooling would be good probably Sunday evening well down into the Tenn Valley and Southeast piedmont. Not to mention, I'm still liking the chances of the first flakes of the season in West VA, NC and ne TN mountains, the highest of peaks only. The deeper the trough, the better the chances of flakes, but at this point, no accumulations of course, just for token mention.

Looks awesome, Robert! Can't thinking of a better start to October than lows 40's! :thumbsup:

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The GGEM would not be quite as cold for us in the Southeast, since it develops a massive cutoff in the lower Ohio Valley. Its trough is initially a good bit further west, I noticed it did the same thing yesterday, but we'll have to wait and see if its onto something. This is the season for cutoffs. Ironically, some areas would probably still get snow with that setup though, namely underneath the core in Ohio, maybe eastern KY and WVA mtns , but the big deal with that would be more rain quickly coming up the front late Friday and a strong east coast rain event ahead of the upper low.

The ECMWF is more like GFS..big deep eastern trough with a temporary cutoff. As much as I like rain, I'm rooting on the GFS and ECM right now.

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Today's action just keeps on going here. After 3 rounds of passing showers, I got into a decent downpour associated with a thunderstorm. However, the one that just passed me was probably the most interesting...You can see the clouds sort of lower themselves and move in different directions. Then another downpour happened but only lasted 5 seconds and quit. Then on one side of the street I live on, it rained but not a drop here and even witnessed lightning across a clear blue sky! Very unusual evening. I've got what looks yet another storm ready to move in from the south.

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Had an amazing longlasting storm today. Had 2-4 inches of rain. Flood warnings. Streets were flooded. Winds strong and even right now still some rain and very strong wind. There is a big dent in my ceiling with water leaking. Hopefully it doesnt burst because that a big bulge in the ceiling.

Quickly get a bucket and poke a hole in the center of the bulge. If you don't it will definitely burst and water and pieces of ceiling will go everywhere.

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had a pretty good storm move through here too (i had about given up when i last looked at the radar, so this one snuck up lol). lots of lightning, and picked up a quick .57 thats almost 7.5" the last week and about 8.75 for the month. the other part of that total came with the tropical dude on labor day lol

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Getting a bit of a deluge at the moment. I didn't think anything was going to materialize, yet this one snuck up on me. About 2-3 minutes of thunder and started coming down fairly fast and will probably end up with about .20 I would guess. Will have to check once it stops.:thumbsup:

Edit: Checked the gauge and it read .14 Not as much as I anticipated, but the yard is thankful nonetheless.:wub:

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Today's action just keeps on going here. After 3 rounds of passing showers, I got into a decent downpour associated with a thunderstorm. However, the one that just passed me was probably the most interesting...You can see the clouds sort of lower themselves and move in different directions. Then another downpour happened but only lasted 5 seconds and quit. Then on one side of the street I live on, it rained but not a drop here and even witnessed lightning across a clear blue sky! Very unusual evening. I've got what looks yet another storm ready to move in from the south.

I saw that too. Was outside the last couple of hours watching the lightning show, against the setting sun, which is an awesome sight anytime, especially this time of year with the angle of the sun now. I'm just missing it all, once again. There is a dome right between you and I , and of course upstate SC...a line of precip aways fires on that magical convergence line just east of here. Huge gap once again in upper SC, hopefully the rain with the front in GA will hold together. Either way, Charlotte has this area beat in rain, despite the fluke 5" deluge a week ago. I'm not surprised...Meck County is a rain magnet no matter what time of year.

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I saw that too. Was outside the last couple of hours watching the lightning show, against the setting sun, which is an awesome sight anytime, especially this time of year with the angle of the sun now. I'm just missing it all, once again. There is a dome right between you and I , and of course upstate SC...a line of precip aways fires on that magical convergence line  just east of here. Huge gap once again in upper SC, hopefully the rain with the front in GA will hold together. Either way, Charlotte has this area beat in rain, despite the fluke 5" deluge a week ago. I'm not surprised...Meck County is a rain magnet no matter what time of year.

It was a good show indeed. Seeing those lightning bolts streak across the sky around sunset was gorgeous but man it intensified quickly with several close bolts around a few minutes after it started. Picked up .72" for the day. I wondered if you managed to get anything later that evening because I noticed it was quite dark to my west but I guess not based on what you told me. Perhaps it will be your turn again next time haha. :)

You're definitely right about CLT's "rain magnet" capability. At one point on radar, I saw most, if not all of Meck. county was covered in heavy rain and strong thunderstorms. Just somewhat more than what I was witnessing but they appeared to have been rocked.

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