Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

And we begin... Part Deux


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 436
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The bad news is that we have almost 13% less snow this year than we had last year.

WHERE is just as important as HOW MUCH when it comes to snowcover, from what I've read. Last year had more snowcover on our side of the pole and a bit more in southern Siberia/N. China. Northern Siberia cover is about the same. NE Siberia is the most critical region from what I've read (although there is some debate on that I guess), and we've had that covered for a couple weeks now, which I think was a bit faster than last year.

The snowcover on our side of the pole looks to really jump in the next week or so with some storms rolling through Canada.

Here's the SST Anomaly maps for reference regarding the NAO:

post-51-0-26202600-1319633544.gif

post-51-0-63474900-1319633554.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WHERE is just as important as HOW MUCH when it comes to snowcover, from what I've read. Last year had more snowcover on our side of the pole and a bit more in southern Siberia/N. China. Northern Siberia cover is about the same. NE Siberia is the most critical region from what I've read (although there is some debate on that I guess), and we've had that covered for a couple weeks now, which I think was a bit faster than last year.

Apparently ppl in this thread are still having issues understanding this. :wacko:

Unless I missed a paper that says North America/Northern Canadian snow cover in October has some type of influence on DJF snow cover in N.A. :axe:

Reading the the first couple of pages of the thread from back in Sept. the discussion focused on Euroasia and Siberia but since the middle of September it has developed into a N.H./N.America snow and ice cover discussion with little focus on EA and Siberia.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WHERE is just as important as HOW MUCH when it comes to snowcover, from what I've read. Last year had more snowcover on our side of the pole and a bit more in southern Siberia/N. China. Northern Siberia cover is about the same. NE Siberia is the most critical region from what I've read (although there is some debate on that I guess), and we've had that covered for a couple weeks now, which I think was a bit faster than last year.

I think every year has NE Siberia covered by that time of year. Our biggest deficits right now are in Eurasia and have been throughout this entire month. There's no way around it.. this has been a terrible month for snow in the critical areas. Here is a time series of the month, Oct 3, 11, 16, 22, and 25. Note the consistently below normal snow cover in Eurasia with nearly no above average pixels in Eurasia the entire month.

2011276.png

2011284.png

2011289.png

2011295.png

2011297.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice gains today it looks like, Ice Extent is skyrocketing too we're passing 2010 now on NORSEX. Ryan Maue's site shows extended periods of below average temps over the Arctic, actually averaging below normal for the 132-hour period which is impressive given the albedo-loss effect up there.

GFS surface has a diurnal flux isse so the anoms wont be exact but a good sign for increased snow and ice cover.

Can see the effect of the snowcover in Russia reflecting SW radiation leading to cooler temperatures.

raw_temp_5day_avg.png

ssmi1_ice_ext.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think every year has NE Siberia covered by that time of year. Our biggest deficits right now are in Eurasia and have been throughout this entire month. There's no way around it.. this has been a terrible month for snow in the critical areas. Here is a time series of the month, Oct 3, 11, 16, 22, and 25. Note the consistently below normal snow cover in Eurasia with nearly no above average pixels in Eurasia the entire month.

2011276.png

2011284.png

2011289.png

2011295.png

2011297.png

Those maps don't square with the ones we usually look at. A giant area of red shows up over Siberia where there is clearly snow on the ground according to the NOAA maps.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The water temperature anomalies in the N Atlantic

If water temperatures in the North Atlantic mean something in relation to the NAO then why did we have all those huge -NAO periods in the mid/late 1960s to early 1970s? The -AMO and cooler SSTA's in the North Atlantic were prevolent during the deep -NAOs of that time, but the Sun's magnetic flux was low. The NAO went positive in August and September of this year, and before that happened the waters were considerably warmer up there, hence my viewpoint in that the SSTA's respond to the NAO state, not that I am necessarily correct though. Do you have any thoughts on this?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Found this little nugget from Matt posted last month! Looks like a little more coverage of snow for Siberia this week along with some added depth

Here's another one I like:

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/images/multisensor/eurasia/recent/multisensor_4km_ea_snow_ice_map_fulres_recent.png

It's a multisensor output including AVHRR, Seviri and DefenseMet SSMIS plus ground observations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lots of really cold air building in the Arctic now. Good to see this time of year.

sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.gif

Still far above normal and this is like a cold snap compared to what these graphs had the last few days.

meanT_2011.png

compday.75.132.160.218.299.10.34.46.gif

I guess we can say it's cooling past fall averages. But this should be normal since the sun is setting between 70-78N now.

But no where near any real cold we have seen in the past. I won't be shocked if we never see it again for this time of year until the means change.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.gif

Still far above normal and this is like a cold snap compared to what these graphs had the last few days.

meanT_2011.png

compday.75.132.160.218.299.10.34.46.gif

I guess we can say it's cooling past fall averages. But this should be normal since the sun is setting between 70-78N now.

But no where near any real cold we have seen in the past. I won't be shocked if we never see it again for this time of year until the means change.

Eh, when the ice isn't growing much you focus on that. When it is, you shift your focus to temperatures. Which actually are pretty cold up there right now.

post-558-0-70934300-1319733718.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ims2010302.gif

Snow: 7896

Ice: 2422

ims2011302.gif

Snow: 7149

Ice: 2430

We've passed last year as far as ice coverage is concerned, but we still don't have as much snow as we did last year... even with this nor'easter. Maybe in a day we'll have more. There was just so much more snow over China last year than this year. All in all, I think we're pretty similar to last year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...