skierinvermont Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 A lot of snow melted from the 9th to the 10th in Eurasia.. even farther below average now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Okay, I have Photoshop CS 5.1. I'm going to take over for Okie until he decides to come back. Last year, October 10, 2010: Ice Pixels Yesterday: 1,765 Today: 1,766 Last Year: 1,876 Snow Pixels Yesterday: 2,789 Today: 2,566 Last year: 3,707 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 October 11, 2011 Ice Pixels Yesterday: 1,766 Today: 1,771 Last Year: 1,951 Snow Pixels Yesterday: 2,566 Today: 2,594 Last year: 3,967 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Can you check '08's snow/ice pixel count? Thx in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Can you check '08's snow/ice pixel count? Thx in advance. I know '08 finished quite poor in the monthly anomaly. Not sure what it was on this exact date. It was the last October we had that finished below average for NH snow cover. '09 and '10 of course were above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 I know '08 finished quite poor in the monthly anomaly. Not sure what it was on this exact date. It was the last October we had that finished below average for NH snow cover. '09 and '10 of course were above average. Yeah...I knew the month itself was below but wasn't sure where we stood now compared to '08...it seems like that year isn't a terrible analog to work with from a recent standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Yeah...I knew the month itself was below but wasn't sure where we stood now compared to '08...it seems like that year isn't a terrible analog to work with from a recent standpoint. Well here's an image of 2008 last year on Oct 10 to compare to the above pics I don't know the pixel counts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Per Rutgers, snow cover: 2011 week 39: 9.49 million sq. km 2010 week 39: 7.69 million sq. km 2009 week 39: 6.32 million sq. km 2008 week 39: 6.86 million sq. km 2007 week 39: 7.16 million sq. km 2006 week 39: 6.12 million sq. km 2005 week 39: 9.25 million sq. km 2004 week 39: 6.56 million sq. km 2003 week 39: 7.77 million sq. km 2002 week 39: 10.75 million sq. km 2001 week 39: 9.49 million sq. km 2000 week 39: 12.54 million sq. km 2011 currently stands as the 10th highest snow cover since 1967 1977 15.1 1972 14.11 2000 12.54 1973 11.52 2002 10.75 1989 10.54 1983 10.23 1986 9.88 1979 9.58 2011 9.49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Per Rutgers, snow cover: 2011 week 39: 9.49 million sq. km 2010 week 39: 7.69 million sq. km 2009 week 39: 6.32 million sq. km 2008 week 39: 6.86 million sq. km 2007 week 39: 7.16 million sq. km 2006 week 39: 6.12 million sq. km 2005 week 39: 9.25 million sq. km 2004 week 39: 6.56 million sq. km 2003 week 39: 7.77 million sq. km 2002 week 39: 10.75 million sq. km 2001 week 39: 9.49 million sq. km 2000 week 39: 12.54 million sq. km What dates are week 39? We did start off the first few days of October above average in 2011, but have gone below average since then. The opposite happened in '09 and '10 IIRC. I still think that 2011 number looks really high unless week 39 is the very end of September and first few days of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 What dates are week 39? We did start off the first few days of October above average in 2011, but have gone below average since then. The opposite happened in '09 and '10 IIRC. I still think that 2011 number looks really high unless week 39 is the very end of September and first few days of October. Yeah, that makes more sense. It's September 26 to October 2. They do look really high. See what I added to the post. 2011 is in TENTH place since 1967 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Yeah, that makes more sense. It's September 26 to October 2. They do look really high. See what I added to the post. 2011 is in TENTH place since 1967 That makes perfect sense. It definitely was doing well in that week but since then has gone south. I'm sure week 40 will come in negative in anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I'm going to see how far I can go back in the data archives and pixel count them all! Photoshop is going to get a good workout this morning! Edit: I can go back as far as 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 2004 has the maps we use now. Snow: 3,683 Ice: 2,152 Snow: 3,045 Ice: 1,806 Very interesting to see the differences in how far south the snow extends and where it isn't. I wish I could overlay which year was El Nino/La Nina... that would be interesting to see. Snow: 4,647 Ice: 1,934 WOW! Look at 2007! Snow: 3,440 Ice: 1,532 Interesting comeback for ice in 2008 Snow: 2,845 ice: 1,954 2009 is interesting too... look at all of the early snow across the US! Snow: 5,941 Ice: 1,967 Snow: 4042 Ice: 1964 Snow: 3,031 Ice: 1,787 In conclusion, this year, compared to past years at this times is not nearly as active as it was in 2009, but is nowhere near as bad as it was in 2007. I didn't post 1997 - 2003 because the snow pixel counts were wayyyy too high. The maps were different back then and I wouldn't know how to properly deduct the noise from the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 2009 had a huge end of October (last week of the month if memory serves) so today being the 13th w/a deficit isn't a big deal in fact, I think 2009 had a big drop in NOV to decently below average and then came right back above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 2009 had a huge end of October (last week of the month if memory serves) so today being the 13th w/a deficit isn't a big deal in fact, I think 2009 had a big drop in NOV to decently below average and then came right back above True, but look at 2007. Did we even have a winter in 2007-2008? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 True, but look at 2007. Did we even have a winter in 2007-2008? NE did, but those of us in the MA didn't, except for a clipper in early DEC I'm as big a snow weenie as anyone here, but it's early in my mind sure, I'd like to see blockbuster snow over Siberia now, but that never happens, even in the great winters actually, I'm liking the look of the placement of the snow cover this year on the other side of the NP in that there's snow cover developing north of the Caspian, similar to 09', but not quite to the extent.........yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Snow cover currently is below normal and despite the models showing some gains across Siberia, I think October may come in slightly below normal still. I think we should focus our attention on the ENSO more than the Siberian Snow Cover at this point given the link between Fall NH snowcover is not always a guarantee the following Winter. I mean in 2006 the snowcover was above average in October but look how the WInter turned out that year ....it didnt even get get started till Jan 15th lol. I mean given my location I only got about 2-4" in December, WAY below the average. As for the NAO the models develop a West Based NAO for a while before the models shift there attention a bit more east (East Based blocking). West Based blocking often means the PV is situated across Northern Canada with a strong HP anomaly across Greenland and LP anomalies across Eastern Siberia but we'll see. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zwestNAOcomparison.html http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zeastNAOcomparison.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 True, but look at 2007. Did we even have a winter in 2007-2008? I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Yesterday: Snow: 3,031 Ice: 1,787 Today: Snow: 3,470 (net gain of 439) Ice: 1,823 (net gain of 36) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 True, but look at 2007. Did we even have a winter in 2007-2008? best winter ever up here 200% of normal, which is already quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Snow cover currently is below normal and despite the models showing some gains across Siberia, I think October may come in slightly below normal still. I think we should focus our attention on the ENSO more than the Siberian Snow Cover at this point given the link between Fall NH snowcover is not always a guarantee the following Winter. I mean in 2006 the snowcover was above average in October but look how the WInter turned out that year ....it didnt even get get started till Jan 15th lol. I mean given my location I only got about 2-4" in December, WAY below the average. As for the NAO the models develop a West Based NAO for a while before the models shift there attention a bit more east (East Based blocking). West Based blocking often means the PV is situated across Northern Canada with a strong HP anomaly across Greenland and LP anomalies across Eastern Siberia but we'll see. http://raleighwx.ame...comparison.html http://raleighwx.ame...comparison.html It's a useful correlation but like everything in meteorlogy, needs to be utilized in combination with other factors in order for significant use to be gained from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Snow cover is not very good right now. That's one negative factor towards the nao. Isotherm and others have recently discussed the positive factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 I've never been convinced snowcover in october means much of anything toward the wintertime NAO, but rather the NAO phase seems to be the biggest contributor in what builds the snowcover up early, I recall last fall a loss in snowcover in the late fall before recovering significantly as the -NAO developed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 I've never been convinced snowcover in october means much of anything toward the wintertime NAO, but rather the NAO phase seems to be the biggest contributor in what builds the snowcover up early, I recall last fall a loss in snowcover in the late fall before recovering significantly as the -NAO developed. There are several peer reviewed articles suggesting you are wrong. Here are a few of them. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008JCLI2505.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI4241.1 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/FY11CTBSeminars/jcohen_062211.pdf The fall snow cover certainly isn't the only thing to to consider but is something to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 There are several peer reviewed articles suggesting you are wrong. Here are a few of them. http://journals.amet.../2008JCLI2505.1 http://journals.amet...1175/JCLI4241.1 http://www.nws.noaa....ohen_062211.pdf The fall snow cover certainly isn't the only thing to to consider but is something to look at. come on Wes, when you live in the MA, you can't succumb to peer pressure when it goes against us getting snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 There are several peer reviewed articles suggesting you are wrong. Here are a few of them. http://journals.amet.../2008JCLI2505.1 http://journals.amet...1175/JCLI4241.1 http://www.nws.noaa....ohen_062211.pdf The fall snow cover certainly isn't the only thing to to consider but is something to look at. Thanks. Definitely not saying it has no effect or can't enhance/create feedbacks between the two, [[NAO and resulting snowcover, + visa versa]], but I think there is a difference between correlating snowcover to the NAO and finding the chicken or the egg, a mechanism & it's relative forcing versus other drivers. Admittedly I only looked at one of the papers you linked because I'm stripped for time, but it references a model using the October Snowocover anomaly to predict the winter NAO state, and as far as I read didn't see a detailed description of the mechanism at work, and it's forcing on the NAO versus other drivers. I may be wrong I'll need to do more research on the subject, just my opinion. In January 2011 the snowcover state clearly favored the -NAO through the winter and yet the NAO flipped positive mid-winter and never returned negative until late spring, so I feel there are more powerful forcings driving the NAO than snowcover that may be a result of the NAO itself rather than a forcing, or perhaps a feedback connection exists between the two...I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Thanks. Definitely not saying it has no effect or can't enhance/create feedbacks between the two, [[NAO and resulting snowcover, + visa versa]], but I think there is a difference between correlating snowcover to the NAO and finding the chicken or the egg, a mechanism & it's relative forcing versus other drivers. Admittedly I only looked at one of the papers you linked because I'm stripped for time, but it references a model using the October Snowocover anomaly to predict the winter NAO state, and as far as I read didn't see a detailed description of the mechanism at work, and it's forcing on the NAO versus other drivers. I may be wrong I'll need to do more research on the subject, just my opinion. In January 2011 the snowcover state clearly favored the -NAO through the winter and yet the NAO flipped positive mid-winter and never returned negative until late spring, so I feel there are more powerful forcings driving the NAO than snowcover that may be a result of the NAO itself rather than a forcing, or perhaps a feedback connection exists between the two...I don't know. It's the fall snow cover that is important not the winter. There diefinitely are lots of other factors, solar, tropical forcing, stratospheric warming events and downwelling, the Atlantic that also have an imfluence on it along with wave breaking of synoptic scale waves. That's why many climo people say it is not possible to forecast the nao more that a week or so in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 It's the fall snow cover that is important not the winter. There diefinitely are lots of other factors, solar, tropical forcing, stratospheric warming events and downwelling, the Atlantic that also have an imfluence on it along with wave breaking of synoptic scale waves. That's why many climo people say it is not possible to forecast the nao more that a week or so in advance. This is all true about the assumption, but the longer timescale monitoring - tracking the index for multiple decades - shows a about 30 year periodicity of mode tendency. It may be possible to infer a -NAO or +NAO bias "potential" based on upon where we happen to be along that curve. ...with risk of course.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 It's the fall snow cover that is important not the winter. There diefinitely are lots of other factors, solar, tropical forcing, stratospheric warming events and downwelling, the Atlantic that also have an imfluence on it along with wave breaking of synoptic scale waves. That's why many climo people say it is not possible to forecast the nao more that a week or so in advance. Ah, thanks, really appriciated. I'm wondering though, if fall snowcover is a driver of the -NAO for the following winter, why wouldn't winter snowcover matter if it is the same supposed mechanism acting on the block? I guess thats what confuses me, that winter snowcover wouldn't mean anything but fall snowcover somehow means something more substantial. Sometimes I wonder if it is the -NAO in the first place that is sparking an increase in NH snowcover, rather than the other way aroun. In the winter I know that is the case but in the fall it would make sense as well, unless I'm missing something in which case forget everything I just said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 This is all true about the assumption, but the longer timescale monitoring - tracking the index for multiple decades - shows a about 30 year periodicity of mode tendency. It may be possible to infer a -NAO or +NAO bias "potential" based on upon where we happen to be along that curve. ...with risk of course.. NAO, AMO, PDO, and to some extent, the AO, all 30 year cycles. Coincidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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