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September 2011 General Discussion/Obs


Chicago Storm

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Yeah, but it still is probably 2 months, perhaps 3, until the first legit snowstorm. November snow has been hard to come by in recent years.

Yeah I'd say about 3 months. I always consider anything accumulating before Dec 1 as a bonus, although we've had a few good snows in Oct and Nov before. The flurries that fell on October 10 2009 was unusually early for this area.

Got down to 55 this morning here. Should see our first upper 40s tonight and maybe mid 40s tomorrow night. :guitar:

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Looks like yesterday was the last sapping, hot humid day of the year. BYE BYE SUMMER!!!!!!! The 40s tomorrow night will be AWESOME!

Detroit has weather records dating to the 1870s, yet 2011 already has the 5th (tied) snowiest winter, 2nd wettest spring, and 4th (tied) hottest summer on record! Will Fall join the extremes party?

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Looks like yesterday was the last sapping, hot humid day of the year. BYE BYE SUMMER!!!!!!! The 40s tomorrow night will be AWESOME!

Detroit has weather records dating to the 1870s, yet 2011 already has the 5th (tied) snowiest winter, 2nd wettest spring, and 4th (tied) hottest summer on record! Will Fall join the extremes party?

I would think this Fall wont let us down. Your right..a year of extremes. My biggest concern for Southern Lower Michigan and SeMi is a classic late September or Mid October Tornado outbreak. Traditionally we have a spike in tornadoes in October. With a low-mod Nina these classic Fall Bombs will scoot a little to close for comfort. If you wake up in October and its 73/65 with streamers rushing out of the south...RUN AND HIDE.

Also wondering if this could be a Fall where a nasty LES event rolls off the lake and plasters trees that haven't dropped yet.. Lake temps running high.

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maybe some fun on the southern end of the lake later

GIVEN LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG WITH 70F/21C WATER AND 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 2-3C...THE IDEA OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO WORTH CONSIDERING. THIS IDEA IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THAT WOULD HELP TO ENCOURAGE ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WOULD SEEM TO BE THE 20-30KT LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED IN THE TIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH COULD DISRUPT THE VERY FAVORABLE MESOSCALE THERMODYNAMICS. CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS SOUTH OF THE LAKE THUS BROADLY REFLECT THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO SET UP TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND PROBABLY CAN BE RAISED TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN A MORE LIMITED AREA ONCE THE SITUATION UNFOLDS A BIT FURTHER. A MENTION OF THUNDER COULD THEN BE ADDED LATE IN THE PROCESS IF TRENDS DO APPEAR TO BE HEADING IN THIS DIRECTION.

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Point and click for OKC this week. Long overdue for those folks and the rest of the Plains. :)

Labor Day: Sunny, with a high near 74. North northeast wind between 9 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Monday Night: Clear, with a low around 53. East northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 78. East southeast wind between 5 and 8 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 54. East southeast wind around 7 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 54.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 79.

Thursday Night: Clear, with a low around 54.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 81.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 84.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 62.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 84.

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Down to 49 this morning.

Not to be negative, but I've noticed that several of the AWOS sites in the DVN area stop updating, and then drop offline for days at a time. Is it really that difficult to maintain an accurate AWOS site so it's able to update on time 24/7/365? I really don't understand the problem here. Isn't it someone's job to keep equipment updated and fixed in a timely manner? Obviously the ASOS sites are a higher priority, but the AWOS sites are very handy as well, and it kind of pisses me off that several of them are clearly not given the attention to detail they need. /rant

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