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September 2011 General Discussion/Obs


Chicago Storm

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NAM was right on the ball for Detroit today.

City Airport made it to 93*F (warmest in the state?) before the lake breeze and Metro Airport made it to 92*F. NAM of course had a raw text output of 92*F. EVERYONE busted too low (local news/radio stations and NWS), even bullish TWC with its forecast of 90*F.

It's going with 101*F tomorrow, so lets make it 2 for 2.

yup...

WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO

TIME TODAY...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE SWLY FLOW TO SUSTAIN DECENT

MIXING DEPTHS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS BOOSTING FORECAST

HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW

LOCALS HIT 100. THE RECORD HIGHS AT DTW...FNT AND MBS OF 100...97

AND 98 DEGREES RESPECTFULLY /ALL SET IN 1953/ WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF

BEING TIED OR BROKEN. ALTHOUGH INCREASED DAYTIME MIXING WILL LOWER

SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S...HEAT INDICES SHOULD STILL BE IN THE

UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR SEVERAL HOURS TODAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE

ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

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Chad has joined you and is calling for 100º today...and 98º tomorrow. Not sure if that's good luck or not. ;)

Starting off a degree lower at 8AM today versus yesterday, 73º vs 74º...with the dewpoint a degree higher versus yesterday at 8AM, 66º vs 65º.

Eh, 97, 98, 99, 100...it's all the same. Too freakin' hot.

EDIT: 100+ seems like a good bet for IND today. 80º at 9AM, 2 degrees ahead yesterday at the same time.

I blame peer pressure if we don't make it

You should call for 100º on Friday. Do it.

Seems a little too warm for tomorrow but I could definitely see mid 90's.

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Hot day today with many locations reaching 95 to 99 degrees in Northwest Ohio and Southeast Michian. Here are some highs.

Detroit City (KDET) 99

Ypsilanti (KYIP) 99

DTW Airport (KDTW) 98

Toledo Metcalf (KTDZ) 98

Troy (KVLL) 97

Selfridge ANGB (KMVG) 97

Defiance (KDFI) 97

Monroe (KTTF) 97

Lambertville (KDUH) 97

Adrian (KADG) 96

Toledo Express (KTOL) 95

Ann Arbor (KARB) 95

Grosse Ile (KONZ) 95

Lorain (KLPR) 95

Other notable highs in western and central Ohio.

Hamilton / Butler County (KHAO) 100

Cincinnati / Northern KY (KCVG) 99

Cincinnati Lunken (KLUK) 99

Wright-Patterson AFB (KFFO) 98

Dayton Airport (KDAY) 98

Columbus (KCMH) 97

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City Airport made it to 99*F and Metro Airport made it to 98*F. Still impressive for September, but we probably would have smashed that record if it weren't for the sunshine we missed this morning with the convective debris.

Tomorrow would make this an official heatwave if we hit 90*F, and boy would I love for the latest RUC to be correct (and not the NAM, although it's not awful, but that's too much moisture for me in the mid-levels). All the models have a discontinuity boundary setting up anywhere from M-59 to I-94, it's just a matter of cloud cover.

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Friday high temperatures (over/under temp), result...

Burlington, IA (BRL): 96 (95) Over

Chicago, IL (MDW): 94 (95) Under

Chicago, IL (ORD): 92 (95) Under

Fort Wayne, IN (FWA): 96 (93) Over

Indianapolis, IN (IND): 99 (97) Over

Lafayette, IN (LAF): 98 (96) Over

Moline, IL (MLI): 92 (93) Under

Peoria, IL (PIA): 98 (95) Over

Quincy, IL (UIN): 100 (96) Over

St. Louis, MO (STL): 101 (98) Over

High at IKK today: 99

Friday's scorecard...

stormchaser21...8 for 10

Thundersnow12...8 for 10

cyclone77...7 for 10

Chicago WX...7 for 10

Chicago Storm...7 for 10

Stebo48858...7 for 10

KokomoWx...5 for 10

TheWeatherPimp...5 for 10

Two day totals...

stormchaser21...15 for 20

cyclone77...14 for 20

Thundersnow12...14 for 20

Chicago WX...13 for 20

Chicago Storm...13 for 20

Stebo48858...13 for 20

TheWeatherPimp...12 for 20

KokomoWx...10 for 20

Bonus: Highest temperature recorded at Kankakee, IL (IKK) during the 2 days (Thu or Fri): 99 both days

KokomoWx: 99 (perfect)

Chicago Storm: 99 (perfect)

cyclone77: 101 (+2)

TheWeatherPimp: 102 (+3)

Stormchaser21: 102 (+3)

Stebo48858: 102 (+3)

Chicago WX: 103 (+4)

Congrats to stormchaser21 on winning the over/under contest and to KokomoWx and Chicago Storm on guessing IKK's highest temp correctly.

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An FYI for those that were not following the thread in the main forum...

After a few delays, the para NAM is expected to become OP on Sept. 20th.

Also...

-The RSM will finally be put out of it's misery on Sept. 13th.

-The Rapid Refresh is set to replace the RUC in November.

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An FYI for those that were not following the thread in the main forum...

After a few delays, the para NAM is expected to become OP on Sept. 20th.

Also...

-The RSM will finally be put out of it's misery on Sept. 13th.

-The Rapid Refresh is set to replace the RUC in November.

In a weird way I'm kind of sad to see the RUC go. We've lost some pretty notable model names over the last several years. I think some were just renamed. MRF, AVN, ETA, NGM, and RUC are some that I can think of.

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This morning's low at ORD was only 77...if this holds through midnight, it would be the 2nd highest daily min on record in September.

The September monthly record is 78, last occurring on 9/7/1922.

The temp dropped to 76 at 11:45PM, making it the 3rd warmest min temp on record for September.

The min temp of 77 at RFD is the 2nd warmest September min temp on record, and is also a record for the date (76/1922).

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