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September 2011 General Discussion/Obs


Chicago Storm

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ORD topped out at only 93 today.

95 seems like a good call for tomorrow, taking several factors into consideration.

Topped out at 93 here too, with a peak dp of 79 thus far.

Tomorrow's forecast is gonna be somewhat tricky for northern Illinois. A lot will depend on the cloud cover associated with the incoming front. DVN's playing it safe and is going with 94 for the QC. I was thinking upper 90s for tomorrow yesterday, but questions about mixing and potential cloud cover makes me think we'll be lucky to reach what we did today. Looks like central Illinois into Indiana will baking tomorrow. No worries about clouds there.

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Comparing the RUC soundings for LAF and MLI really illustrates the differences nicely. 850 mb temps are a good 4C cooler at LAF, but the LAF sounding has much better low level lapse rates/better mixing with the MLI sounding revealing a very warm/dry layer just off the deck.

post-14-0-55186700-1314917127.gif

post-14-0-61938100-1314917230.gif

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Just think though man, the first High Plains blizzard may only be a little over a month or so away! :guitar:

I will take it.

I had a great day today....we were at the Nebraska State Fair. Met a great and talented forecaster from the Omaha NWS named Cathy Z, it was awesome talking with her about weather. We discussed rapid positive feedback cyclogenesis. I am ready for fall.

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Comparing the RUC soundings for LAF and MLI really illustrates the differences nicely. 850 mb temps are a good 4C cooler at LAF, but the LAF sounding has much better low level lapse rates/better mixing with the MLI sounding revealing a very warm/dry layer just off the deck.

Wow that's a sad sounding for MLI.

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NAM was right on the ball for Detroit today.

City Airport made it to 93*F (warmest in the state?) before the lake breeze and Metro Airport made it to 92*F. NAM of course had a raw text output of 92*F. EVERYONE busted too low (local news/radio stations and NWS), even bullish TWC with its forecast of 90*F.

It's going with 101*F tomorrow, so lets make it 2 for 2.

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NAM was right on the ball for Detroit today.

City Airport made it to 93*F (warmest in the state?) before the lake breeze and Metro Airport made it to 92*F. NAM of course had a raw text output of 92*F. EVERYONE busted too low (local news/radio stations and NWS), even bullish TWC with its forecast of 90*F.

It's going with 101*F tomorrow, so lets make it 2 for 2.

Let's not go for 101 tomorrow, I sleep during the day for my midnight tomorrow night, trying to sleep while its 101 isn't fun. :(

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Thursday high temperatures (over/under temp), result...

Burlington, IA (BRL): 99 (98) Over

Chicago, IL (MDW): 94 (95) Under

Chicago, IL (ORD): 93 (97) Under

Fort Wayne, IN (FWA): 93 (93) Even

Indianapolis, IN (IND): 99 (95) Over

Lafayette, IN (LAF): 97 (94) Over

Moline, IL (MLI): 95 (98) Under

Peoria, IL (PIA): 100 (96) Over

Quincy, IL (UIN): 104 (100) Over

St. Louis, MO (STL): 104 (101) Over

Kankakee, IL (IKK) hit 99º today.

cyclone77...7 for 10

TheWeatherPimp...7 for 10

stormchaser21...7 for 10

Chicago WX...6 for 10

Thundersnow12...6 for 10

Chicago Storm...6 for 10

KokomoWx...5 for 10

Stebo48858...5 for 10

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97º for the high at LAF.

Scorecard....

KIND: 97 (Perfect)

Hoosier: 98 (+1)

Chicago WX: 96 (-1)

Tomorrow's forecast for LAF from earlier, as noted in this thread...

KIND: 99

Hoosier: 100

Chicago WX: 98

Kinda doubting we'll hit 100 tomorrow now. Really not much of an airmass change to speak of. I could see it getting a degree or two above today but that still leaves us short. We shall see.

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Thursday high temperatures (over/under temp), result...

Burlington, IA (BRL): 99 (98) Over

Chicago, IL (MDW): 94 (95) Under

Chicago, IL (ORD): 93 (97) Under

Fort Wayne, IN (FWA): 93 (93) Even

Indianapolis, IN (IND): 99 (95) Over

Lafayette, IN (LAF): 97 (94) Over

Moline, IL (MLI): 95 (98) Under

Peoria, IL (PIA): 100 (96) Over

Quincy, IL (UIN): 104 (100) Over

St. Louis, MO (STL): 104 (101) Over

Kankakee, IL (IKK) hit 99º today.

cyclone77...7 for 10

TheWeatherPimp...7 for 10

stormchaser21...7 for 10

Chicago WX...6 for 10

Thundersnow12...6 for 10

Chicago Storm...6 for 10

KokomoWx...5 for 10

Stebo48858...5 for 10

Fail :(

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Kinda doubting we'll hit 100 tomorrow now. Really not much of an airmass change to speak of. I could see it getting a degree or two above today but that still leaves us short. We shall see.

Chad has joined you and is calling for 100º today...and 98º tomorrow. Not sure if that's good luck or not. ;)

Starting off a degree lower at 8AM today versus yesterday, 73º vs 74º...with the dewpoint a degree higher versus yesterday at 8AM, 66º vs 65º.

Eh, 97, 98, 99, 100...it's all the same. Too freakin' hot.

EDIT: 100+ seems like a good bet for IND today. 80º at 9AM, 2 degrees ahead yesterday at the same time.

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