Hoosier Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 If you're bored, something to watch in the extended is the tropical system in the Gulf. Details highly uncertain but the ECMWF is suggesting the possibility of a significant hurricane around TX/LA and has the remnants moving northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 If you're bored, something to watch in the extended is the tropical system in the Gulf. Details highly uncertain but the ECMWF is suggesting the possibility of a significant hurricane around TX/LA and has the remnants moving northeastward. GGEM and GFS seem to have it meandering along the Gulf/in the SE from D6 onward before dissipating. Based on the H5 setup, you'd tend to think it would be captured by that D4 trough and eject NEward, but I guess the lower amplitude troughs associated with the warm weather season complicate matters? I'd think if this were occurring in a month from now, there'd be little doubt that the tropical system in question would get into the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 GGEM and GFS seem to have it meandering along the Gulf/in the SE from D6 onward before dissipating. Based on the H5 setup, you'd tend to think it would be captured by that D4 trough and eject NEward, but I guess the lower amplitude troughs associated with the warm weather season complicate matters? I'd think if this were occurring in a month from now, there'd be little doubt that the tropical system in question would get into the OV. It's a complicated setup for sure. Looks like it will meander for a while and then it's anybody's guess. Euro actually has it doing a loop in the Gulf. That would be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 If you're bored, something to watch in the extended is the tropical system in the Gulf. Details highly uncertain but the ECMWF is suggesting the possibility of a significant hurricane around TX/LA and has the remnants moving northeastward. Normally Id be all for that but Im getting married outdoors next Saturday. I just need 2 nice days! If there isnt already enough to worry about I dont want the weather to be another! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 up to 95 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 High of 100 so far at SPI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 GRR has MOP hitting 94F tomorrow, though lowered today's highs from 90F to 83F. However, Mon/Tues nights will feature lows around 43F or slightly below. Looking forward to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 It's a complicated setup for sure. Looks like it will meander for a while and then it's anybody's guess. Euro actually has it doing a loop in the Gulf. That would be interesting to watch. A number of the 12z GEFS members to eject it, but they tend to shear it out towards the mid-Atlantic states. In any event, we're getting into the interesting synoptic setup season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Normally Id be all for that but Im getting married outdoors next Saturday. I just need 2 nice days! If there isnt already enough to worry about I dont want the weather to be another! Congrats! Although I imagine marriage is going to cramp your style if you like tracking storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Normally Id be all for that but Im getting married outdoors next Saturday. I just need 2 nice days! If there isnt already enough to worry about I dont want the weather to be another! Well the good news for you is that it seems like a low probability scenario. At this point I think that it's much more likely that it either crawls into Texas and never really comes out as the ridge reasserts or it gets picked up by the next trough and mainly misses to the south. The OV scenario can't entirely be written off with such a large spread in the models/ensembles but it sort of seems like a thread the needle possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Changing it up again to 90/96, with a low of 39 Mon night. GRR has MOP hitting 94F tomorrow, though lowered today's highs from 90F to 83F. However, Mon/Tues nights will feature lows around 43F or slightly below. Looking forward to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 IND just pulled the trigger on a Heat Advisory for the Southwestern 2/3's of their CWA for Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 up to 95 here dew points aren't mixing out yet around here...pooling along and south of the warm front with most of northern IL with dews in the low-mid 70's and 88/79 at DKB. yielding SBCAPE values of 4500 j/kg here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 Numerous sites at or above 100 across the region... Lincoln (AAA) is the hottest in the area, sitting at 104 as of 2PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Changing it up again to 90/96, with a low of 39 Mon night. GRR going with 97 for here tomorrow and 99 in Jackson. The record is 99 for tomorrow which is also the September record for here anyways. Yeah it has never hit 100 at KBTL or that other station here in town in the month of September. Not a fan of such heat but yeah i would not mind breaking that record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 Lincoln (AAA) is the hottest in the area, sitting at 104 as of 2PM. Nevermind... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ilx&storyid=72510&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Disgusting outside! Tomorrow looks to be the threshold of Hell. This was cool in mid July but its now old..Kinda how I feel in March when Im ready for Summer..Praying for a unsettled , chilly and beautiful Fall!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 High of 100 so far at SPI. Hard to believe, but this is the first 100+ temp in Springfield IL since 7/14/1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Nevermind... http://www.crh.noaa....=72510&source=0 I was gonna say lol that seemed a bit high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 High of 97 here so far. Not sure if we can get a 1 degree bump yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Congrats! Although I imagine marriage is going to cramp your style if you like tracking storms. Thanks, No worries, She works dayshift I work nightshift! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 104 in St Louis, tying the record high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 350 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2011 ..HOTTEST SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURE 102F SET AT SPRINGFIELD IL TODAY A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 102 DEGREES WAS SET AT SPRINGFIELD IL AT 241 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 101 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984. THIS ALSO BECAME THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURE IN SEPTEMBER ALSO BEATING THE 101 DEGREES SET ON SEP 1 1984. THE LAST TIME IT WAS THIS HOT IN SPRINGFIELD WAS OVER 16 YEARS AGO ON JULY 13 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Only hit 95 here today. NAM fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Only hit 95 here today. NAM fail. Yeah, I mentioned earlier how temps were struggling up north. Wonder what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Yeah, I mentioned earlier how temps were struggling up north. Wonder what happened. Haven't had time to look at much yet but I'm guessing our mixing wasn't very good. Dews are in the mid 70s, which is way higher than they were supposed to be. The heat index temps actually ended up a little hotter than it would have been if we had hit 100 though lol. I would have rather had the official 100 though. Like I said the other day though, it's pretty hard to get triple digits in this area, usually due to high moisture content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormchaser21 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Yeah, I mentioned earlier how temps were struggling up north. Wonder what happened. drier soils to the south helped temps soar and dewpoints lowered considerably while the areas north of I-80 have had a lot more rain lately and dewpoints remained well into the 70s with not near as much mixing happening as farther south so actual temperatures were lower but in some cases heat indices were warmer to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Haven't had time to look at much yet but I'm guessing our mixing wasn't very good. Dews are in the mid 70s, which is way higher than they were supposed to be. The heat index temps actually ended up a little hotter than it would have been if we had hit 100 though lol. I would have rather had the official 100 though. Like I said the other day though, it's pretty hard to get triple digits in this area, usually due to high moisture content. Just checked out the newly initialized RUC...if it's correct, you didn't even mix to 925 mb. 900 mb temps are around 30C but the base of the inversion is around 950 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 ORD topped out at only 93 today. 95 seems like a good call for tomorrow, taking several factors into consideration. Topped out at 93 here too, with a peak dp of 79 thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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