Chicago Storm Posted September 29, 2011 Author Share Posted September 29, 2011 51 mph gust in South St. Paul. The second Rochester site is gusting to 53mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 I don't think there's a thread for it, but there is a slight risk for the OH/MI/IN area today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 I'm pretty sure this will be the sixth straight day around here of 0.1 inch or more of rain. We have not had that yet this year I'm pretty certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 29, 2011 Author Share Posted September 29, 2011 Mason City is sustained at 39mph and gusting to 59mph. KMCW 291753Z AUTO 30034G51KT 10SM SCT070 22/03 A2988 RMK AO2 PK WND 30051/1753 SLP112 60000 T02170028 10217 20161 58004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 FROPA in Madison, it's completely sunny and the winds are picking up. I can see the clouds coming in from the north associated with the center of the low already though. They look convective on radar and may mix serious winds down to the surface, though the strongest winds so far are being recorded in the clear area south of the precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 29, 2011 Author Share Posted September 29, 2011 FROPA in Madison, it's completely sunny and the winds are picking up. I can see the clouds coming in from the north associated with the center of the low already though. They look convective on radar and may mix serious winds down to the surface, though the strongest winds so far are being recorded in the clear area south of the precipitation. There's a good amount of lightning with that activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Latest AFD update indicating that MKX is considering upgrade to high wind warning for this evening into the overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Mason City is sustained at 39mph and gusting to 59mph. KMCW 291753Z AUTO 30034G51KT 10SM SCT070 22/03 A2988 RMK AO2 PK WND 30051/1753 SLP112 60000 T02170028 10217 20161 58004 Just got Skilling's tweet about that while working, that it insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 29, 2011 Author Share Posted September 29, 2011 The second site in Rochester is now sustained at 38mph and gusting to 60mph. K9MN 291852Z AUTO 29033G52KT 10SM BKN048 OVC060 17/07 A2976 RMK AO1 T01690066 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 once again we are treated to awesome looking vis sat/WV images, once that area of subsidence/clearing gets here the winds are really going to pick up fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 based off obs it looks like this area is the leading edge of the stronger winds/wind shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 based off obs it looks like this area is the leading edge of the stronger winds/wind shift. Looks about right. Winds are definitely picking up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Just gusted to 48 mph on top of the met building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Popcorn thunderstorms sprouting like crazy in C/S Wisconsin. Looks to just miss here, but I doubt the heavy winds will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Interesting updated ILN AFD concerning severe weather this evening and possible sleet/ice pellets tomorrow. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 303 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011 && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... PLENTY OF WEATHER IN THIS 12-HR PERIOD. VERY DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS THIS AFTERNOON DIGGING SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFYING INTO SRN WISCONSIN. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE 1.5 POTENTIAL VORTICITY SURFACE IS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 600MB NORTH OF MADISON...WITH LIGHTNING UNDER THE CORE OF THIS SIGNIFICANT PERTURBATION. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS /12-HR/ APPROACHING 200 METERS ARE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ANOMALY...AND THE SURFACE RESPONSE/REFLECTION IS NOW UNDERWAY AS SIGNIFICANT 3-HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOW DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM IN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER LAKE MICH AND INDIANA. THIS IS INDUCING AN INCREASE SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND VERY MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT DUE TO THE SHORT WAVELENGTH BETWEEN THE PESKY UPPER LOW WHICH IS STILL JUST TO OUR EAST...AND RAPIDLY INBOUND WAVE...THERE JUST ISN/T SUFFICIENT TIME TO ADVECT IN DEEPER MOISTURE. HAVING SAID THAT...HOWEVER...SYSTEM HAS TREMENDOUS LIFT AS EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATASETS /RADAR AND SATELLITE/ AND WILL MAKE THE MOST OF ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE FORECAST AREA NEAR/JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. LATEST AMALGAM OF CONVECTION-ALLOWING DATA SETS /INCLUDING EXPERIMENTAL 4KM SPC WRF AND 3KM HRRR/ IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH COARSER 12-30KM PARAMETERIZED MODELS /29.12Z GFS AND NAM/ INDICATE THAT CURRENT BAND OF RAIN OVER IL/NRN IND WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST...WHILE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION TIED TO THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL INITIATE SHALLOW /LOW-TOPPED/ CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS BAND OF RAIN ACROSS CNTL IND. THERE SEEMS TO BE A GROWING SIGNAL THAT...DESPITE MLCAPE REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF 500-700 J/KG/...A RATHER CONCENTRATED BUT NARROW BAND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND REACH MATURITY AS IT CROSSES INTO WRN OH VERY NEAR 23Z/00Z. THIS BAND OF STORMS SHOULD RACE QUICKLY EAST...WITH GOOD COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGH RAIN CHANCES WARRANTED WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS BEEN LAID OUT WELL BY SPC VIA SWODY1 PRODUCT. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS WHERE 90KT /500MB/ WLY JETLET WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE...THERE IS ENOUGH BACKING IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH THAT VERTICAL AND SPEED SHEAR CONSIDERATIONS ARE IMPRESSIVE...AND CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE SHEARS IN EXCESS OF 55KTS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THIS DEEPER SHEAR...AND THE WLY ORIENTATION OF THE 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR /SOMEWHAT ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE/ SUGGEST LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF WIND DAMAGE. IN FACT...29.12Z SPC WRF...AND RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONCENTRATED 2-5KM UPDRAFT HELICITY MAXIMUMS IN THEIR MODELED FIELDS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING FROM DAYTON THROUGH CVG INTO NRN KY...SUGGESTING THE STRONGER RELATIVE INSTABILITY ON THIS PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW UPDRAFTS TO FEEL THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. AS MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW OWING TO MEAGER INSTABILITY...MOST ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND POSE WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO 40-45 KTS.BUT THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE ILN CWA MAY GET A CONCENTRATED SWATH OF SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE CLEARING/WARMING GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN ANALOGS VERY WELL TO THIS EXACT DATE IN 2009 WHEN A HANDFUL OF SEVERE STORMS AFFECTED WESTERN OHIO. BUT OVERALL SETUP HERE IS MORE FAVORABLE DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...SO WILL MONITOR SEVERE THREAT CLOSELY. THERE IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE A BURST OF STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ENSUES. WILL HIGHLIGHT ALL OF THESE ITEMS IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE STORY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ONCE AGAIN RESUME THEIR HOLD ON THE AREA. WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING ON FRIDAY...AND WHAT SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS VERY CONSERVATIVE AND LIES AT THE VERY LOW END OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM. IN FACT...SOME AREAS OF WCNTL/CNTL OH MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 50 IF CLOUDS REMAIN THICK. A SECONDARY AND EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE PV ANOMALY WILL DIG DOWN AND SPREAD CONTINUED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ESPECIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHEN STATIC STABILITY WILL MINMIZE UNDER THE TROP FOLD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLENTY OF STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR GUSTY WINDS DESPITE THE LOW CLOUDS...AND LOW TOPPED SHOWERS THAT COULD EVEN SPIT OUT SOME SLEET/ICE PELLETS GIVEN CAPE CONSIDERATIONS...WHICH ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE UNDER THE PV ANOMALY. MODELS OFTEN VERY MUCH UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS UNDER THESE DYNAMIC PV/S...AND THUS HAVE INCREASED RAIN COVERAGE SOME FOR TOMORROW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS ARE EVEN STILL TOO OPTIMISTIC. BETTER CHANCES FOR SUN WILL BE FAR SWRN FORECAST AREA...WHERE WARMEST TEMPS ARE INDICATED NEAR CVG AND TO SOUTHWEST. WIND GUSTS EASILY COULD TOP 30KTS AT TIMES IN WIND PRONE AREAS ON FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...THINGS START TO SLOWLY BUDGE EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT. KEPT MINS A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE GIVEN CONTINUED WINDS...CLOUDS...AND MIXING. ACTUALLY NEAR THE TOP END OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD IN SOME CASES. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY MUCH OF FRIDAY EVENING AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH PUSH BY RISING HEIGHTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS TO COME IN. SATURDAY IS A TOUGH FORECAST...COULD BE A TALE OF DAYS FROM AREAS SOUTHWEST OF CVG /MOSTLY SUNNY AND NEAR 60/ TO CNTL OH WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO MOVE OUT...AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BREACH THE 40S. SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD BE A SETUP FOR FROST...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT POSITION OF HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST MAY NOT ALLOW GRADIENT TO RELAX ENOUGH TO GO WHOLE HOG ON THIS SCENARIO. THIS...AND CLOUDS OVER CNTL OHIO MAY STILL BE STUBBORN ENOUGH TO KEEP THAT AREA FROST FREE. BUT THINK THE CHANCES ARE LOOKING RATHER HIGH FOR FROST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WHITEWATER AND MIAMI VALLEYS. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY...COOL...CRISP AND SUNNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Now a high wind warning for pretty much the eastern three columns of WI counties. Possible gusts to 60 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Getting very windy out there now. Probably on the order of 40-45mph gusts. Unfortunately my weather station sits a little too low to get a good sampling of the wind gusts, but it's still picking up some 30+mph gusts. The sky has a hazy brown color to it. Must be a lot of dirt getting lifted aloft over Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 had about 2 mins of pea sized hail on the way home from work at Winfield/Butterfield rd, tanking mid-level heights and crashing temps aloft doing the trick for some hail in the better showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 RFD gusting to 58mph now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Latest shower band just ripped through here. Almost as quickly as it came, we are back with the golden sunlight. Going to bike over to the city park on the west side of town and see what greets. We have a ten foot "thunderfoil" kite that has been up before in probably 35+. I am tempted now, but also don't want to invest in the repairs should things go haywire. I am going to bring it with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Very not windy here for the time being Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 29, 2011 Author Share Posted September 29, 2011 Winds are picking up here as the line of showers brushes town. Easily gusting over 30mph now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Just had the highest gusts of the entire year easily a bit ago. Probably on the order of 50mph as a light shower moved through. EDIT: Strongest gusts from thunderstorms this year never topped 45mph. Very unusual for that to happen around here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Another area of showers should press in about 2 hours from now. My guess is that's when the winds will really ramp up. Right now most obs are showing 20 mph sustained winds, with gusts on the order of the mid to upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 It's been a week since any prolonged semblance of high pressure has been in control. I didn't think this would happen in September. It looked like it would be a boring finish a week and a half ago, but things sure changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 30, 2011 Author Share Posted September 30, 2011 I was about to post that winds have really calmed down the past few hours, but recently they have picked back up once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 About to get into some moderate to heavy rain, if the leading edge doesn't keep getting eaten away; probably some 50 mile an hour gusts in there. Might be like a small to moderate strength tropical storm in those bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 0900 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SISTER BAY 45.18N 87.11W 09/29/2011 M69.00 MPH DOOR WI C-MAN STATION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 0900 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SISTER BAY 45.18N 87.11W 09/29/2011 M69.00 MPH DOOR WI C-MAN STATION Geez, they must be having a doozy of a time right on the bay there. Had plenty of rain as well along with that wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Awoken by the sound of thunder. Finally something worth while from this mf storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.