baroclinic_instability Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Yeah it would be real interesting if we were another 5-7 weeks down the road lol. I will take it. It is a pretty unique setup mainly because the embedded PV's rotating around the base of the mean cutoff upper low originate from stratospheric intrusions from the previous days jet configuration. The intrusions helped generate potential vorticity in the troposphere which is resulting in shortwave amplification and the deepening of the upper low. From a day ago. The various stratospheric intrusions and the jet stream anomalies created from them. Note the mass field divergence aloft in response to the anomalies. It is truly a unique setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 I'm thinking this storm would be mostly a rain maker even in the winter. Not in that defo band. Granted it is impossible without knowing the thermal setup, but it would not be a likely scenario for rain in that intense comma head/deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 I will take it. It is a pretty unique setup mainly because the embedded PV's rotating around the base of the mean cutoff upper low originate from stratospheric intrusions from the previous days jet configuration. The intrusions helped generate potential vorticity in the troposphere which is resulting in shortwave amplification and the deepening of the upper low. From a day ago. The various stratospheric intrusions and the jet stream anomalies created from them. Note the mass field divergence aloft in response to the anomalies. It is truly a unique setup. well, this is getting ridiculous...Td's have been in the upper 60's and low 70's now for about a week, and counting...and when this mess first cutoff from the main flow, the 500mb upper air pattern reminded me of a spring-time scenario...not one of an atmosphere transitioning into winter... this is getting tiresome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 well, this is getting ridiculous...Td's have been in the upper 60's and low 70's now for about a week, and counting...and when this mess first cutoff from the main flow, the 500mb upper air pattern reminded me of a spring-time scenario...not one of an atmosphere transitioning into winter... this is getting tiresome... Ah come on Diane, there is always something exciting going on in weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Not in that defo band. Granted it is impossible without knowing the thermal setup, but it would not be a likely scenario for rain in that intense comma head/deformation band. I find that the cold air tends to be scoured out pretty quickly with these types of cut-off lows in the winter, after it's been detached from the PJ. Yeah, there would be evap/dyamic cooling areas of +SN, but as intriguing of a storm as it is, I don't think this is your archetypal winter storm setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 I find that the cold air tends to be scoured out pretty quickly with these types of cut-off lows in the winter, after it's been detached from the PJ. Yeah, there would be evap/dyamic cooling areas of +SN, but as intriguing of a storm as it is, I don't think this is your archetypal winter storm setup. Sure it wouldn't be a classic winter time storm by any stretch, I was just not convinced it would be an all rain event were this in the middle of winter. It certainly would be a messy p-type across certain locations as the deep occlusion would lend itself to bands of precip well detached from the cold core. Either way it is fun to watch this system develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Sure it wouldn't be a classic winter time storm by any stretch, I was just not convinced it would be an all rain event were this in the middle of winter. It certainly would be a messy p-type across certain locations as the deep occlusion would lend itself to bands of precip well detached from the cold core. Either way it is fun to watch this system develop Yeah, fair enough. Looking at that RUC simulated radar graphic hm8 posted, you'd probably have the unusual scenario where it's snowing in the QC but raining in GRB, were this January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Ah come on Diane, there is always something exciting going on in weather! i can't help being a little grumpy when the potential to see the first flakes of the season is climatologically possible in 3-4wks, yet i have the same temp and Td as my friend in FL... UGH!!! ok done complaining...for now...yes, there is always something interesting or exciting about the pattern...but at least you are on the pleasant weather side of this ginormous atmospheric block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Yeah, fair enough. Looking at that RUC simulated radar graphic hm8 posted, you'd probably have the unusual scenario where it's snowing in the QC but raining in GRB, were this January. Brings me back to the Christmas 2009 storm that occluded and wrapped warm air pretty far into MN where it rained and at the same time there was snow down in STL I think.. Yep here we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Just a 3 degree spread between the high and low temperature at IND today (59/56). Also was the first sub 60º high temp since May 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 pretty impressive heavy rain signals off the 0z RUC for overnight here with the area of rain southeast of here rotating into northern IL after 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 ECMWF and GFS bring 850 Temps below freezing as far south as Columbus... looks like a hard frost/freeze as far south as Findlay on Saturday. Max Temps barely break 50 in Northern IN/OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 I know I posted an image from an earlier run today, but the RUC Relative Humidity loop is just to cool looking http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=ruc7t:&runTime=2011092602&plotName=rh_500&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=ruc&ptitle=RUC%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=full&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 this is turning out to be pretty interesting..rain line about to get to MDW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Only made it to 59 today with solid cloud cover all day. May be even cooler tomorrow as steady/cold rains move in. Latest NAM drops close to an inch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 26, 2011 Author Share Posted September 26, 2011 Sunday, September 25th: Hi: 65F Lo: 49F Overall Sky Conditions: Mostly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 6MPH Rainfall: Trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 light rain has started to fall here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 northeast IL sitting right on the nose of the 50kt LLJ in Indiana and with ascent increasing via WV/IR in response to the wave now north of STL, rain should continue to pick up here and ascent increases with the wave rotating northeast then north around the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 This could be quite the rain/wind storm for Madison, over 1 inch of rain and wind gusts of 30-40 mph are possible, with winds sustained around 20 mph. It's neat how it's going to spin-up over Lake Michigan and then push west over Wisconsin, feels like a weak tropical cyclone landfall scenario, though much colder conditions (50s). The lake is very warm right now with spots still in the 60s, so maybe the cyclone will feed off the sensible heat flux a little. Not a primary mechanism of energy, just an incidental one due to the conditions at large leading to the development and movement of the cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Gorgeous surface cyclone...the system is very well established right now with a classic occlusion signature on satellite. Kenosha is the location of the center right now down to 998 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 LOT storm total radar is screwed up to say the least..I'm not talking just about the wind farm blockouts it has rings of brightbanding...but within those rings squares of very high precip...which in you run the 1 hour storm total loop goes up about 1 inch in places but the past one loop is only .25 inches also it has places within that is really underdoing stom totals such as northen cook county but the overdoing areas even fooled the NWS for the 1st flood advisory it said up to 3 inches ....then for the update 3 hours later said up to 2 inches... decent totals over N IL so far 1-2.5 inch(elgin) range so far per ground truth looks like some vortex over SE dekalb county per radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 26, 2011 Author Share Posted September 26, 2011 2.57" here since midnight. Still coming down, with the sun peaking through the clouds to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 About a third of an inch so far here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Record daily rainfall at IND yesterday. RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 0144 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2011 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT INDIANAPOLIS... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.17 INCHES WAS SET AT INDIANAPOLIS YESTERDAY...SEPTEMBER 25 2011. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.13 SET IN 1961. WEATHER RECORDS BEGAN AT INDIANAPOLIS IN 1871. Should be rain free here today, but it looks like more on the way for Tuesday and Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 We're near the center of the cyclone, well over an inch of rain so far and some gusts to 30+. The building 2 doors down is on fire, not sure if it's related or not, but I haven't seen a building fire in downtown Madison before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 awesome 1km vis sat and radar view of this system, can def tell it deepened a good amount overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 The 12z NAM is still dropping another 1-1.50" of rain here between now and tomorrow night. Huntley, IL has picked up 4.35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 We had 5.00in here in southern Ohio... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 just had a pretty strong gust here, prob near 30mph or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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