Thundersnow12 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 C or F? Both would be almost unprecedented. I would assume Fahrenheit. hoping that was a joke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 hoping that was a joke... Before I looked at the longer term forecast I thought either was plausible, but when I saw the cooldown expected over the Labor Day Weekend, I knew it had to be F. Upper 30s C would be mid to upper 90s, and I thought, while unlikely, it might be plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 IND going with 97 for Indy on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Geeez. The 18z NAM goes ape**** and puts 105 on the board for the QC Thursday. Shows a large part of the Midwest over 100 under the nose of 25C+ 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Geeez. The 18z NAM goes ape**** and puts 105 on the board for the QC Thursday. Shows a large part of the Midwest over 100 under the nose of 25C+ 850s. yikes I doubt the Quad Cities has ever hit 105 in September lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 yikes I doubt the Quad Cities has ever hit 105 in September lol Haha yeah that'd be incredible. According to the climate data MLI has only hit 100 twice in recorded history in Sept. EDIT: Notice Cedar Rapids hit 105 on September 4th 1925. MLI only hit 98 that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 yikes I doubt the Quad Cities has ever hit 105 in September lol Have they even hit 105 at all in recent years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Have they even hit 105 at all in recent years? Hottest temp since the extreme heat/drought of 1988 was the 103 during the drought in July 2005. 100s are pretty rare, so I highly doubt 105 will be achieved, but mid to upper 90s look quite likely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Haha yeah that'd be incredible. According to the climate data MLI has only hit 100 twice in recorded history in Sept. EDIT: Notice Cedar Rapids hit 105 on September 4th 1925. MLI only hit 98 that day. NAM 2m output looks realistic within itself as 850's are at least +26C with good mixing. Question is whether it's just too warm aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 temps pushing 100 by 18z, impressive for september. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 NAM 2m output looks realistic within itself as 850's are at least +26C with good mixing. Question is whether it's just too warm aloft. The 12z ECMWF is a tick cooler aloft, but it would support a warmer solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 The 12z ECMWF is a tick cooler aloft, but it would support a warmer solution. I forgot we now have free ECM graphics. I need to thank Dr. Masters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 I forgot we now have free ECM graphics. I need to thank Dr. Masters. will be alot easier for others come winter time wanting QPF numbers, sfc low track, temps, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Looking like one last shot of heat before things possibly cool off for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 0z GFS looks like from day 7 and on has a big ridge out west which drops a trough in the eastern half of the country. If that were to happen, it could get mighty chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 AFD for my area from ILN mentions fall like temps next week. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 137 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2011 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS...EXPECT A DECENT WARM UP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING INSTABILITIES EACH DAY. FORCING WILL BE WEAK THOUGH AND MID LEVEL WARMING MAY RESULT IN A CAP. THUS...THINK ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DIURNALLY MORE FAVORABLE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IT LOOKS LIKE A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL THEN PIVOT DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS OUR REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTIES WITH THE TIMING OF THIS. THE 12Z GFS IS TRYING TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HANGS IT UP ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO AND HANG ON TO SOME PCPN A BIT LONGER SUNDAY AND THEN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. ONCE THE FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 12z GFS MOS is showing 90/92 on Thur/Fri. The 12z NAM has 96/100 and the 0z ECMWF showed 95-100 on both days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 12z GFS MOS is showing 90/92 on Thur/Fri. The 12z NAM has 96/100 and the 0z ECMWF showed 95-100 on both days. NAM MOS also appears to be too cool on Thursday. I'm strongly leaning toward the NAM/ECMWF 2m output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 NAM MOS also appears to be too cool on Thursday. I'm strongly leaning toward the NAM/ECMWF 2m output. You should call for 100º on Friday. Do it. Looks like the local heat monger has 95º for Friday. Of course he has the heat lasting through early next week as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 You should call for 100º on Friday. Do it. Looks like the local heat monger has 95º for Friday. Of course he has the heat lasting through early next week as well. I won't be calling for 100 until Thursday at the earliest. I'm surprised that he only has 95 on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 I won't be calling for 100 until Thursday at the earliest. I'm surprised that he only has 95 on Friday. It's early. For both of you I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 12z GFS MOS is showing 90/92 on Thur/Fri. The 12z NAM has 96/100 and the 0z ECMWF showed 95-100 on both days. Id tend to favor the NAM/Euro for those days, going to have to think up some over/under numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 It's early. For both of you I guess. I've had a change of heart. Thursday will be hot but I think Friday will even be a little hotter as we will have a warmer start and the low level thermal ridge should be more entrenched. Good mixing into the warm air aloft should yield the hottest September weather in 57 years. As mentioned, I'm leaning more toward the NAM/EC given their performance in previous heat waves this year. Thu: 98 Fri: 100 What can go wrong? Well, precip chances look minimal but I guess more clouds than expected could ruin things. I might be a little nuts but if 100 occurs, I think I will have been the first person to call for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 I've had a change of heart. Thursday will be hot but I think Friday will even be a little hotter as we will have a warmer start and the low level thermal ridge should be more entrenched. Good mixing into the warm air aloft should yield the hottest September weather in 57 years. As mentioned, I'm leaning more toward the NAM/EC given their performance in previous heat waves this year. Thu: 98 Fri: 100 What can go wrong? Well, precip chances look minimal but I guess more clouds than expected could ruin things. I might be a little nuts but if 100 occurs, I think I will have been the first person to call for it. Should have went 100º both days. Regardless, I'll shave two degrees off your predictions and go 96º for Thursday and 98º for Friday. 12z Euro looks like it has another round of extreme heat in the extended (days 9+). September looks like it's shaping up to be quite the scorcher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 DVN 12Z MODELS DEPICT 850 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 24 TO NEARLY 28 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE WRF/NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMEST...WITH ITS MOS GUIDANCE SENDING HIGHS TO A ROUGHLY 90 TO AROUND 100 RANGE...WHILE THE COOLER TRENDING GFS MOS HAS MID 80S TO MID 90S. DEEP LOW LEVEL SW FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE WOULD FAVOR DEEP MIXING AND THUS SUPPORT THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND HAVE COMPROMISED CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM WITH MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Should have went 100º both days. Regardless, I'll shave two degrees off your predictions and go 96º for Thursday and 98º for Friday. 12z Euro looks like it has another round of extreme heat in the extended (days 9+). September looks like it's shaping up to be quite the scorcher. Just think how much more you will enjoy this coming winter. Once the heat is finally turned off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Just think how much more you will enjoy this coming winter. Once the heat is finally turned off. Hopefully I'll have to have the heat ON this winter. I was shooting for October for the end days of my AC. I've now bumped it to November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 This NAM model has Peoria near 108 Thursday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 This NAM model has Peoria near 108 Thursday lol. Don't give Hoosier any ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 It would be funny if Chicago managed to hit 100 later this week since they just missed doing it earlier this year. I wonder if there's ever been a year where their only 100 degree temp came in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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