Thunder Road Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 This, plus if you are unsure you can always ask someone, we would be more than happy to explain stuff if need be. Thanks guys! I have a pretty good understanding of atmospheric stuff at the basic (intro met) level. i.e. 70F lake water with 50F air overhead = condensation/precip. It's really just that the entire concept of lake-effect anything is new to me so I forget to think about it. If I was diligently forecasting on a regular basis I would probably remember the lake was there, haha. That said, LOT's point-and-click has a low of 40 Friday morning. Originally I was thinking 40 also, but now I'm thinking more like 45-ish here because of said effects? The west side of Chicagoland could drop into the 30s though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 RFD down to 37. Wow. It's already the coldest of the season so far here, and we still have another 6+hrs to go. Starting to think the 36 NWS point forecast may be a bit warm lol. Temps are pretty variable around the area though. MLI still at 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 RFD down to 37. You mean FEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Thanks guys! I have a pretty good understanding of atmospheric stuff at the basic (intro met) level. i.e. 70F lake water with 50F air overhead = condensation/precip. It's really just that the entire concept of lake-effect anything is new to me so I forget to think about it. If I was diligently forecasting on a regular basis I would probably remember the lake was there, haha. That said, LOT's point-and-click has a low of 40 Friday morning. Originally I was thinking 40 also, but now I'm thinking more like 45-ish here because of said effects? The west side of Chicagoland could drop into the 30s though. Onshore flow doesn't look that strong. I think Valpo could be far enough inland to avoid most of the effects but I guess we'll have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 You mean FEP. just saw that lol my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 Wednesday, September 14th: Hi: 59F Lo: 44F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 12MPH Rainfall: 0.04" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Both the GFS and ECMWF have been relatively consistent with keeping a broad area of H5 ridging across the entrie width of the US and southern Canada for the forseeable future. 0z GFS kinda threw us a bone and tries to really dig, and eventually close off, a shortwave around D6-7 through the Lakes. However, in general, this pattern is not conducive for active weather. I believe dry autumns are common during Ninas or when a transition to a Nina is taking place? I guess there's nothing wrong with saving the good stuff 'til later in the fall when it can actually do some damage. At least my local climo certainly suggests that dry, warmish Seps/Octs are harbingers to cold and snowy winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizznd Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Got a 19 degree low temperature reading at Wannaska Minnesota, south of Roseau in northwest Minnesota this Thursday morning 9-15. Most sites in our area 25 to 30. But still, this freeze is about 2 weeks early. Not complaining however. Dan NWS Grand Forks ND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Burlington was at 32 during the 6:00 hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 42º at LAF, 13º below the normal low temp for today. A couple of lows in the upper 30's in Indiana this morning... GOSHEN 6HR MIN TEMP: 39 SOUTH BEND 6HR MIN TEMP: 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 CYGQ - GREENSTONE AIRPORT, GERALDTON, ONT 2011/09/15 12:14 - CYGQ 151214Z 35010KT 12SM -SHSN SCT009 BKN015 RMK SF3SC4 TCU ASOCTD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 622 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2011 ...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REACH THE TEENS AT EMBARRASS... THE OVERNIGHT LOW IN EMBARRASS MINNESOTA SO FAR THIS MORNING WAS 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Officially hit 32 in CR last hour, but the in-town weathernet station was only 37. There was also a breeze so there was no frost at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 50 right now in Lemont. Why does it matter? The BMW Championship is starting up in 15 minutes, and needless to say this is probably about the coldest weather these PGA Tour golfers have played in this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Btw, I found this link with a great picture of Tuesday's wildfire smoke causing a mystical scene of Holy Hill, located about 30 miles NW of Milwaukee http://www.wisn.com/weather/29168869/detail.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 622 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2011 ...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REACH THE TEENS AT EMBARRASS... THE OVERNIGHT LOW IN EMBARRASS MINNESOTA SO FAR THIS MORNING WAS 19. Looks like International Falls may have hit 19 as well? Would be the first time they've reached the teens in September...either way, their coldest temperature this early on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Looks like International Falls may have hit 19 as well? Would be the first time they've reached the teens in September...either way, their coldest temperature this early on record. Correct, they did hit 19. That's amazing to have their first Sept. temp in the teens occur on the 15th!! Honestly, this is one of the most incredible cold temp records I can think of. I think there's a thread about it on the main forum too. Per Don S.: The previous earliest <20°F temperature was 17° set on October 2, 1974. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Correct, they did hit 19. That's amazing to have their first Sept. temp in the teens occur on the 15th!! Honestly, this is one of the most incredible cold temp records I can think of. I think there's a thread about it on the main forum too. Per Don S.: The previous earliest <20°F temperature was 17° set on October 2, 1974. yep, total beat down of that record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 We only got down to 40 here this morning, which is the coldest temp since May 27th (low of 40). ORD made it down to 42, which is also the coldest temp since May 27th (low of 40). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Lake Huron lake effect machine is whipping into form rather early this season. Lake effect rain showers have been falling most of the morning. Most of SE Michigan is sunny, as is Toronto. We get peaks of sun, usually followed within 30 minutes by more rain. Kind of cool to see the precip. form over the lake and come inland on the N or NW winds. Give it a couple more months and it will be white not wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Under a Freeze Warning for tonight with temps expected to be 28-32F. Last night's low at MOP was 37F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 We're actually under a Frost Advisory here as well. I'm surprised they extended it to include all the Wisconsin lakeshore counties. Our normal first frost is mid-October, so this would be a month ahead of schedule if it occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Models look a little warmer than a few days ago. Not sure if we can touch the 30's tonight...could be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 We only got down to 40 here this morning, which is the coldest temp since May 27th (low of 40). ORD made it down to 42, which is also the coldest temp since May 27th (low of 40). ORD's low was 3F off the record (39/2007). The low of 37 at RFD was 2F off the record (35/2007). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 A little humor from CLE in the AFD. After 3"+ already this month, and almost 45" YTD, we could use a break from the rain. Hopefully the abundance of rain will make for good leaf color this year. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... STILL FEEL THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT A SHRA COULD STILL BE IN THE SNOWBELT PART OF THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK FRI...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE FRI THROUGH SUN BASED ON LATEST MODELS RUNS. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE PATTERN SO FAR THIS YEAR...TO EXPECT TO HAVE THREE DRY DAYS IN A ROW SEEMS TO BE JUST TOO MUCH OF A STRETCH SO AM EXPECTING TO SEE MODELS CHANGE BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SUN. && Almost another inch here (0.93" IMBY) overnight. The yearlong deluge continues. With CLE now at 4.06" for the month, this will likely be another top 10 wettest month (alongside April, May, July, August) The yearly total of 45.73" is 18.33" above normal. This is already the 8th wettest year on record. We only need 8.10" to fall over the next 3.5 months to break the record for the wettest year on record. A typical year would see 11.69" fall between now and the end of the year, so even if we slip into an extended dry pattern, the record looks like a safe bet. This longevity of this wet spell has been mighty impressive. Just imagine if this had occurred during the winter months with each month being a top ten snowiest with 2 of them being the snowiest. This is easily the equivalent of a 140" snowfall season for Cleveland. Now is the time to start watching lake temps as we get into fall. Right now they appear to be running 1-2 degrees colder than normal, despite a warmer than average summer. I think the heavy wind action has allowed for some mixing of the surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Winds kicked back up last night and kept us from getting very cold. Bottomed out at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Dry weather the last several months already having a negative effect on some of the incipient fall foliage. Lotta brown or burnt looking leaves popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 was def a hoodie day today with temps near 60 and a breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 was def a hoodie day today with temps near 60 and a breeze. Nice avatar, I have a similar looking image from Groundhogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Nice avatar, I have a similar looking image from Groundhogs. I got that one saved mine is from 12/1/06, another big time snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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