Stebo Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 I swear if someone said look at the radar for Detroit right now and said we had snow coming I would believe. The radar totally has a winter storm look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 national radar looks very winter right now. I was thinking that this morning looping the northern IL 1km radar view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 The CONUS view vis sat looks gorgeous today. The backside Canadian upper wave embedded within the mean trough looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 I swear if someone said look at the radar for Detroit right now and said we had snow coming I would believe. The radar totally has a winter storm look to it. Same here in Colorado. Too bad we aren't 20 degrees colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 LOT has me getting down to 35 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 I swear if someone said look at the radar for Detroit right now and said we had snow coming I would believe. The radar totally has a winter storm look to it. Imagine if that low was moving NE and the precip right now is front end with the deformation band to follow through. Excited no doubt for winter. As of now its setting up to be favorable for a snowy one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 national radar looks very winter right now. I swear if someone said look at the radar for Detroit right now and said we had snow coming I would believe. The radar totally has a winter storm look to it. I was thinking that this morning looping the northern IL 1km radar view. -SN/SN here right now. Thinking 2-4" should do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 18z NAM take on temps early tomorrow morning, a new 1km view were working on at COD for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 18z NAM take on temps early tomorrow morning, a new 1km view were working on at COD for the NAM. I didn't know the lake impact was as bad or worse in Door County as it is here. They're probably going to be a degree or two warmer than I will be for an overnight low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 18z NAM take on temps early tomorrow morning, a new 1km view were working on at COD for the NAM. Do you really think the lake influence will be that great in northern Indiana? It makes sense that downwind of a warm lake would be warmer, but that depiction seems a bit drastic, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Looking at the obs, temperatures in the 50s don't seem that out of place, but when I see dews in the 20s with an occasional dew in the teens, it makes it feel like we're nearly in winter, when summer is still technically here astronomically. I wonder what the lowest summer dews have been in the Upper Midwest. Can't be too many dews in the teens and twenties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Do you really think the lake influence will be that great in northern Indiana? It makes sense that downwind of a warm lake would be warmer, but that depiction seems a bit drastic, no? LOT discussing/expecting lake effect showers after midnight. No doubt will keep temps from really dropping in NW IN. SPEAKING OF THE LAKE...WATER SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE STILL IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F...WHILE 850 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO ZERO OR A LITTLE BELOW TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE DELTA T OF 20C OR GREATER. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CLOUD DEPTH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND REALLY PEAKING FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. BY THU AFTERNOON SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL SUPPRESS CLOUD DEPTH AND SHOWER POTENTIAL. BUT SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THU EVENING. INITIALLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER PORTER AND LAPORTE COUNTIES IN INDIANA. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST INTO LAKE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEAST COOK AND EASTERN WILL THU MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 I mentioned earlier how the GFS has been consistently showing over the last 3 days a large trough coming south across the GL/OV areas in the long range. 18z run came back west some and is deeper. Temps for 29-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Here is the nowcast for INL. Nowcast as of 5:01 PM CDT on September 14, 2011 Showers containing a wintry mix of light rain...sleet...and wet snow will cotinue move southeastward across northeast Minnesota along and north of Route 2 early this evening. Wet snow could briefly coat Mail-Boxes and parked cars on higher ridge tops before melting. Melted precipitation up to a tenth of an inch each hour or two will fall on the Iron rage eastward to the North Shore of Lake Superior. Winds may gust to 30 mph in some showers.Freeze warning in effect from midnight tonight to 8 am CDT Thursday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 I didn't know the lake impact was as bad or worse in Door County as it is here. They're probably going to be a degree or two warmer than I will be for an overnight low. they're almost fully surrounded by mild lake water...so i'm not sure why you would be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 0.20" at IND today. Sadly, their biggest one day rainfall total since...August 13th (0.39"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 they're almost fully surrounded by mild lake water...so i'm not sure why you would be surprised. Well, I agree that Lake Michigan is quite mild, but I would think the temperatures of Green Bay (the actual bay) would be negligible. I'm still surprised they would actually be warmer than us well further down the L Michigan shoreline. Also, the map shows the western shore of Green Bay with very little temperature warming compared to the inland areas well west. It's a minor issue, anyways. I shouldn't have mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Beautiful night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Got .3 tenths of an inch of rain today. Pretty bad when I considered that a good soaking gotta take what I can get at this point. Temp down to 50 degrees. Beautiful sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 LOT discussing/expecting lake effect showers after midnight. No doubt will keep temps from really dropping in NW IN. So the warmer temps are a product of the lake effect cloud/shower debris, which is in turn a product of North wind over a warm lake? Ok that makes sense. I should start reaidng LOT's AFDs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 Well, I agree that Lake Michigan is quite mild, but I would think the temperatures of Green Bay (the actual bay) would be negligible. well, you thought wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 they're almost fully surrounded by mild lake water...so i'm not sure why you would be surprised. Ya i wasn't gonna waste my time on that one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 The high of 58 at ORD today is the first sub-60 high since 5/27 (58). This temp was 4F off the record low max temp for the date. Made it up to 59 here today, which is the first sub-60 high since 5/26 (54). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 ARR already down to 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Here is the nowcast for INL. Nowcast as of 5:01 PM CDT on September 14, 2011 Showers containing a wintry mix of light rain...sleet...and wet snow will cotinue move southeastward across northeast Minnesota along and north of Route 2 early this evening. Wet snow could briefly coat Mail-Boxes and parked cars on higher ridge tops before melting. Melted precipitation up to a tenth of an inch each hour or two will fall on the Iron rage eastward to the North Shore of Lake Superior. Winds may gust to 30 mph in some showers.Freeze warning in effect from midnight tonight to 8 am CDT Thursday... Oh No!! I hope there weren't any mail boxes that were coated in snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Already down to 43 here. NWS point has us hitting 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 18z NAM take on temps early tomorrow morning, a new 1km view were working on at COD for the NAM. Those are nice graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 So the warmer temps are a product of the lake effect cloud/shower debris, which is in turn a product of North wind over a warm lake? Ok that makes sense. I should start reaidng LOT's AFDs Pretty much. Not sure what your knowledge base is but I'd highly recommend reading up on the basics if you haven't already. It will come in handy especially as we head into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 So the warmer temps are a product of the lake effect cloud/shower debris, which is in turn a product of North wind over a warm lake? Ok that makes sense. I should start reaidng LOT's AFDs Pretty much. Not sure what your knowledge base is but I'd highly recommend reading up on the basics if you haven't already. It will come in handy especially as we head into winter. This, plus if you are unsure you can always ask someone, we would be more than happy to explain stuff if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 FEP down to 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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