wisconsinwx Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Forecast temps seem to be slowly lowering for the MKE area on Wed and Thur nights. Now, instead of mid 40s, it's near 40, with some upper 30s possible in the outlying suburbs, with perhaps some patchy frost. Can't wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 87º via wunderground (bump included). Wasn't too bad of a day really. Dewpoints mainly in the 50's this afternoon lessens the blow. True. Sun still feels pretty hot even though we're getting into mid September. IND calling for 90 in Indy tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 True. Sun still feels pretty hot even though we're getting into mid September. IND calling for 90 in Indy tomorrow. Anything under 90º, compared to what we went through this summer at times, is kinda weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 First frost highly likely Thursday Night (possibly Wed night), Freeze, possible, but more likely just to my north. GRR .LONG TERM...(410 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2011)(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A FREEZE POTENTIAL AND WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT. WE/LL BE WELL INTO THE COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. H8 TEMPS AROUND -1C THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE. THAT WOULD FREQUENTLY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MITIGATE THE STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVE ACROSS NRN LWR AND THE UP. MOISTURE IS ALSO LIMITED. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE NORTHWEST WHERE MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE MAY BE MORE OF A PLAYER. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCU...BUT PROBABLY NOT OVERCAST. HIGHS WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE MID 50S ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND THE HIGH SETTLES OVER MICHIGAN SKIES WILL CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY. IT/S VERY POSSIBLE WE/LL SEE LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE US-10 CORRIDOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE REST OF THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AND A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE FAR NRN CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 good grief the NAM has low 20's in northeast IA thursday morning...850mb temps between 0 and -2 C The 18z NAM (I know, lol) has most of S Wisconsin, sans Milwaukee County, under 30 at 12z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Anything under 90º, compared to what we went through this summer at times, is kinda weak. We hit 95 today (although dews were in the 40s) and it felt like a normal day. It really didn't even feel all that hot out. Amazing how such a warm summer can acclimate you to this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 Monday, September 12th: Hi: 85F Lo: 61F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 17MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 tomorrow should be a perfect day, low 70's and sunshine, forecast high of only 60 degrees on thursday. OT- just starting to work on our blizzard talk for our AMS meeting in november. maybe il make a thread and throw up what images I use lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 I think the best shot for temps near or below freezing thursday morning is going to be along hwy 20 and northward in IA/WI/MN, possibly down into extreme northwest IL. Also looks like some of those areas and further eastward could do it again friday morning looking at the GFS. Over/under time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 00z (upgraded) NAM min temp over the next 84hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 cool pic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 quite the trend in the NAM bringing the center of the high pressure/colder air further south over the past few runs... 6z run tonights 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Over/under time. lets what a bit longer lol but im in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Lake Michigan and UHI FTW, you guys can keep the upper 20s, 50-55 sounds perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Parts of N Wisconsin have introduced a slight chance of rain/snow showers on Wednesday night I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Not a half hour after I ventured outside, and noticed a smoky, smoggy scene and smell, I read MKX's update which mentioned the Pagami Creek Fire, which apparently occurred several weeks ago, advecting its smoke plume into S Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 LOT TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPS EVEN DROPPING INTO THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE LOWS WILL BE GETTING SCARILY CLOSE TO THE LOWER 30S MARK...WITH FROST ISSUES POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH FEEL IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...BETTER CHANCES FOR FROST FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS WOULD NOT COME UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST FINALLY GETS INTO A BETTER LOCATION FOR FLOW TO REALLY DROP OFF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 Not a half hour after I ventured outside, and noticed a smoky, smoggy scene and smell, I read MKX's update which mentioned the Pagami Creek Fire, which apparently occurred several weeks ago, advecting its smoke plume into S Wisconsin. You mean started several weeks ago... The fire is still occuring. We have the smoke and scent here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 You mean started several weeks ago... The fire is still occuring. We have the smoke and scent here too. This is approximately where the area of smoke is at this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Not a half hour after I ventured outside, and noticed a smoky, smoggy scene and smell, I read MKX's update which mentioned the Pagami Creek Fire, which apparently occurred several weeks ago, advecting its smoke plume into S Wisconsin. I was wondering what that was. Lol i've never seen a graphic like this before on the point and click.. This Afternoon: Areas of smoke. Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Northwest wind around 10 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 This is approximately where the area of smoke is at this time... Visibility is down to 3 miles at MKE and 4 miles at DPA, which is a few miles away from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Looks like all of MI except metro-Detroit is a lock to see frost in a few nights, and its just mid-September. May even see frost in the metro area as well. Cant WAIT for the feel and smell of that crisp fall air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 You mean started several weeks ago... The fire is still occuring. We have the smoke and scent here too. My mistake. Given the satellite it is still occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 yep can smell and see the smoke here too, pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 Visibility is down to 3 miles at MKE and 4 miles at DPA, which is a few miles away from here. Down to 2 1/2 miles at MKE now. Smoke has gotten a bit thicker around here the past hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 103 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2011 ..SMOKE FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILDFIRE INVADING WISCONSIN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS EXPERIENCING THE EFFECTS OF SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRE BURNING IN THE BOUNDARY WATERS CANOE AREA IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE SMOKE IS BEING DISPERSED OVER WISCONSIN BY NORTHERLY WINDS FLOWING AROUND A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SMOKE WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT HAZY SKIES AND A DISTINCT BURNING ODOR. SOME RESIDENTS WISCONSIN HAVE REPORTED DIFFICULTY BREATHING...IRRITATED EYES AND HEADACHES AS A RESULT OF THE SMOKE. A WEATHER SPOTTER NEAR HARTFORD HAS REPORTED NOTICEABLE AMOUNTS OF ASH BEING DEPOSITED ON CARS. AIR QUALITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNHEALTHY AT TIMES IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHILDREN...ELDERLY PEOPLE...INDIVIDUALS WITH RESPIRATORY AND CARDIAC PROBLEMS...OR ANYONE ENGAGED IN STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME...SHOULD USE CAUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 By the way, check out the page the Duluth WFO put together for the fire...It features some awesome photos of pyrocumulus. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dlh&storyid=72987&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 My total rainfall Sept 7-11th was 2.60". For the year to date I am already at 38.86"!!! (DTW is lagging behind at 32.86", exactly 6" less). For comparison purposes, Ive kept daily liquid precip records since 2000, and only 2 years had more (2006 with 39.33" and 2008 with 39.05")....and we still have 3.5 months to go in 2011!!!!!! Snow-wise, the year sits at 60.2" already, with Oct-Dec to come. Should the remainder of the year provide "normal" precipitation and snowfall...on average 9.5" of precip falls from mid-Sept thru the end of December, so I would be over 48" precip. Also, Oct-Dec typically see 11-12" of snow, so Id be into the low 70s for snowfall. (2005 saw 95.3" and 2008 saw 87.0", so 2011 would be the 3rd snowiest). So in summary, 2011 is a lock for my wettest year since 2000, and will probably be at least 3rd snowiest since 1996, if not better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 This may bore the **** out of some of you...but it looks like the typical cold spots in northern MN (i.e., the radiational cooling madhouse of Tower, MN) may drop into the lower 20s later this week. I checked the USU climate website to see how often Tower has dropped to 24F or lower, prior to September 18. Some data is missing...but here is what I found (the bold is the most impressive): 09/08/1975: high 54, low 24 09/10/1976: high 64, low 24 09/05/1993: high 61, low 24 09/01/1974: high 56, low 23 09/16/1976: high 63, low 23 09/17/1976: high 75, low 23 08/28/1982: high 58, low 23 08/29/1982: high 63, low 23 09/01/1994: high 61, low 23 09/02/1994: high 63, low 23 09/17/1995: high 57, low 23 09/10/1997: high 67, low 23 09/15/1900: high 62, low 22 09/15/1964: high 55, low 22 09/17/1973: high 56, low 22 09/03/1974: high 55, low 22 09/09/1975: high 57, low 22 08/29/1976: high 58, low 22 08/24/1977: high 62, low 22 08/27/1986: high 56, low 22 09/09/1995: high 63, low 22 09/15/2000: high 65, low 22 08/28/1986: high 56, low 21 (!!!) 09/08/1995: high 57, low 20 09/03/1997: high 61, low 20 Bottom line: - If Tower hits 24F later this week, it won't be that big of a deal - If Tower hits 22-23F later this week, that will be much more significant, but still not unprecedented - If Tower hits 21F later this week, it will be the 4th coldest temp so early in the season - If Tower hits 20F later this wee, it will be the 3rd coldest temp so early in the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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