Thundersnow12 Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 great day here for what looks to be a Bears win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 For those who get bored with the weather patterns they aren't looking far enough. Always something awesome going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 For those who get bored with the weather patterns they aren't looking far enough. Always something awesome going on. I agree. For those of you in the Midwest longing for the season to come, check out MTBLANC's pics over in the Alaska/Western Canada thread. Beautiful country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 I agree. For those of you in the Midwest longing for the season to come, check out MTBLANC's pics over in the Alaska/Western Canada thread. Beautiful country. Yeah that thread is top notch. A must read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 I agree. For those of you in the Midwest longing for the season to come, check out MTBLANC's pics over in the Alaska/Western Canada thread. Beautiful country. Yeah that thread is top notch. A must read. Agreed, I enjoy the disco. I am glad I talked Patrick into starting it. Even K*** likes it. For those who are bored with the weather, expand your minds. There is always something unique out there in the world of weather to learn about. http://journals.amet...IO%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 IWX disco: OTHERWISE MAIN FTR OF NOTE THIS PD WILL BE DEEP LYRD TROUGH DVLPMNT THROUGH ERN CANADA AND ASSOCIATED STG SFC RIDGING BLDG OUT OF CANADA MID-LT WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE MOS SPREADS ARE CLOSE AND SPRT TRENDING TEMPS COOLER AGAIN ESP WED-FRI ATTENDANT TO PROXIMITY OF 1030+MB SFC RIDGE SETTLING IN ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD YIELD AN EARLY FROST NRN AREAS FRI MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 lol, highest in the state. Not like it's been 100% sunny here. But I digress... High temp spread wasn't nearly as large as those hourly obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 IWX disco: OTHERWISE MAIN FTR OF NOTE THIS PD WILL BE DEEP LYRD TROUGH DVLPMNT THROUGH ERN CANADA AND ASSOCIATED STG SFC RIDGING BLDG OUT OF CANADA MID-LT WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE MOS SPREADS ARE CLOSE AND SPRT TRENDING TEMPS COOLER AGAIN ESP WED-FRI ATTENDANT TO PROXIMITY OF 1030+MB SFC RIDGE SETTLING IN ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD YIELD AN EARLY FROST NRN AREAS FRI MORNING. I think we have a good shot at 30's here toward next weekend. Wouldn't predict frost yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Might be an odd statement, but I want to say that I am pretty proud of our forum region. It has become clear to me that we have the best and most drama free region on the board, and I think the quality of our discos are pretty top notch. Keep it up guys/gals, and let's have a good fall/winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 I agree with T-snow. This pattern is pretty damn boring lol. Of course we've all been spoiled with some very interesting events/weather patterns the last year or so. Definitely can't always have something exciting to track, which only makes the good ones that much more interesting/exciting to track. I usually try to take advantage of the quiet weather to get the crap done that I blew off during the previous active weather pattern lol. I'll take boring now for active later. I wouldn't mind another big late season outbreak of severe weather though before we move into cooler weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 12, 2011 Author Share Posted September 12, 2011 Sunday, September 11th: Hi: 82F Lo: 56F Overall Sky Conditions: Mostly Clear Max Wind Gust: 14MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 For those who get bored with the weather patterns they aren't looking far enough. Always something awesome going on. Ok now that is sweet and impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 good grief the NAM has low 20's in northeast IA thursday morning...850mb temps between 0 and -2 C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 good grief the NAM has low 20's in northeast IA thursday morning...850mb temps between 0 and -2 C That image really captures the urban and potential slight onshore flow effects in WI/IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 I think we have a good shot at 30's here toward next weekend. Wouldn't predict frost yet though. I did a quick check of the earliest sub 40º low at LAF, and we've passed that date...August 29, 1965 with a low of 37º. That was surprising. Seems like the typical timeframe for the first sub 40º low is late September/early October...so if we pull it off Friday, for example, we'll be "ahead of schedule". The last 4 years it hasn't happened until October (in descending order starting with 2010: 10/4, 10/5, 10/2, and 10/13). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 0z GFS MOS guidance gets us down to 42 Friday morning here at VPZ: http://www.nws.noaa....mex.pl?sta=KVPZ Edit: And the 0z GFS raw data gets us down to 39, but I'm not sure of the GFS's accuracy on its surface temp product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 A little humor from CLE in the AFD. After 3"+ already this month, and almost 45" YTD, we could use a break from the rain. Hopefully the abundance of rain will make for good leaf color this year. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... STILL FEEL THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT A SHRA COULD STILL BE IN THE SNOWBELT PART OF THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK FRI...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE FRI THROUGH SUN BASED ON LATEST MODELS RUNS. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE PATTERN SO FAR THIS YEAR...TO EXPECT TO HAVE THREE DRY DAYS IN A ROW SEEMS TO BE JUST TOO MUCH OF A STRETCH SO AM EXPECTING TO SEE MODELS CHANGE BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SUN. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 That image really captures the urban and potential slight onshore flow effects in WI/IL. You're telling me! I could use a frost or freeze so I could actually spend some time outside without sneezing and wheezing, but near L Michigan it's not going to happen until October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 I did a quick check of the earliest sub 40º low at LAF, and we've passed that date...August 29, 1965 with a low of 37º. That was surprising. Seems like the typical timeframe for the first sub 40º low is late September/early October...so if we pull it off Friday, for example, we'll be "ahead of schedule". The last 4 years it hasn't happened until October (in descending order starting with 2010: 10/4, 10/5, 10/2, and 10/13). 00z GFS had a 2m temp of 35 on Friday. Obviously gonna depend on how well we can radiate. Looks like there may be a couple good nights for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 What's really crazy is parts of N Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan are going to be in the 80s today with a chance of strong thunderstorms, then 3 nights later they might bottom out in the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 I think the best shot for temps near or below freezing thursday morning is going to be along hwy 20 and northward in IA/WI/MN, possibly down into extreme northwest IL. Also looks like some of those areas and further eastward could do it again friday morning looking at the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 too bad its not December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Records for Chicago, IL: Thu 9/15 - 39 in 2007 Fri 9/16 - 37 in 1984 Records for Rockford, IL: Thu 9/15 - 35 in 2007 Fri 9/16 - 34 in 1916 ORD record will likely be safe due to UHI and warm lake waters...and RFD will probably be safe, although with not as much confidence. If RFD somehow manages to hit 33, it will be the 3rd earliest 33 or lower temp on record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Picked up 0.60" within the first 3 days of Sept. Looked fairly certain that my Sept. precip futility record of 1.02" set in 2004 would not be something I'd have to worry about. As we approach the midpoint of the month, I'm less confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Models are locked in on this and it's within 72 hours, so I'm starting to believe it. This is a fairly anomalous cold spell, 12z GFS MOS has KMSN hitting 35° F Wednesday and Thursday nights, which is near record lows. A freeze isn't out of the question in the rural areas (including KMSN), though I think it would be very hard for a freeze to happen in downtown Madison from this. Gonna be a nice early taste of fall regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 The University of Wisconsin Nonhydrostatic Modeling System (UW-NMS) initialized with the GFS suggests possible snowfall just north of Lake Superior. http://cup.aos.wisc.edu/12zgfssfc.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Toasty day today. High of 86 barring an intrahour bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Toasty day today. High of 86 barring an intrahour bump. 87º via wunderground (bump included). Wasn't too bad of a day really. Dewpoints mainly in the 50's this afternoon lessens the blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 The University of Wisconsin Nonhydrostatic Modeling System (UW-NMS) initialized with the GFS suggests possible snowfall just north of Lake Superior. http://cup.aos.wisc.edu/12zgfssfc.html I can believe it. I looked at one of the GFS runs yesterday, and it suggested at least mixed precipitation over or just north of L Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 We topped out at 88 today, foecasted HI was 92 for my area. We are rolling right through september, still no precip really besides those remnants of Lee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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