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September 2011 General Discussion/Obs


Chicago Storm

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Multiple reports of cold air funnels across Western and Northwestern Ohio

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

447 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-082245-

ALLEN OH-DEFIANCE OH-FULTON OH-HENRY OH-PAULDING OH-PUTNAM OH-VAN

WERT OH-WILLIAMS OH-

447 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

..FUNNEL CLOUDS BEING REPORTED WITH A FEW SHOWERS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS

ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST OHIO...MOVING WEST AT 30 MPH. A FEW FUNNEL

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF OHIO WITH

THESE SHOWERS. THESE ARE NOT THE TYPE OF FUNNEL CLOUDS TYPICALLY

ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR FUNNEL CLOUD FORMATION AND BRIEF BUT WEAK TORNADOES

COULD OCCUR IN THE RARE CASE THAT ONE OF THESE FUNNELS REACHES THE

GROUND. IF YOU OBSERVE A FUNNEL CLOUD...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY AND

REPORT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT.

FUNNEL CLOUDS...WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...AND BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS

ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

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Model solutions keep flip flopping. Last few runs of the Euro have taken it into Mexico. This is a favorable time of year climatologically speaking...lots of remnant storms have passed through the area during the month of September.

You know who is forecasting Nate to become a major hurricane and hit the Gulf Coast (Louisiana on the 17th). He might want to concentrate on forecasting the local weather first...

EDIT: Ah, I see...he took the 12z GFS verbatim. :arrowhead:

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High of 63 at IND was the coolest day since May 27. It's also the 4th consecutive day that it hasn't reached 70.

And just 0.02" of rainfall from the remnants of Lee. :(

Does anybody care? Kinna like MKE, or Detoilet.. Nobody really cares. Could include ORD also.

Yes, we should stop posting about weather things in a weather forum. Geez, who peed in your Old Milwaukee Light? Lighten up man....Packers, Brewers...life is good, no?

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Does anybody care? Kinna like MKE, or Detoilet.. Nobody really cares. Could include ORD also.

I care. :P The 63 degree high temperature tied the record for coolest high temperature for the date, originally set in 1914. Thus it was the coolest September 8th in nearly 100 years!

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Euro ensembles showing a strong cold front as well, then a boring, warm pattern afterward(especially with the mins). My bet as we head to October 1st, there is going to be some impressive blocking taking hold on the modeling. Pretty relaxed right now though. It wasn't for the resulting ull from Lee, we would have been roasted again.

Well, there is also the big +PNA pattern that has developed over the past week.

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We are in a -/neutral PNA over the last few days. Lee got trapped under the encroaching ridge. It was luck in many respects. A bit different steering and Lee slams into Mexico and completely misses the gulf coast.

:huh:

There has been a big Western ridge in place basically since the 4th, and it has strengthened the last few days. That is a significant part of the reason the eastern half of the nation has been cooler since then.

post-558-0-71203400-1315601805.gif

post-558-0-33146700-1315601811.gif

post-558-0-46243500-1315601816.gif

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The coolest day next week appears to be next Wednesday with a low of 47. But according to that map posted earlier, models are saying possible lows of 30s next week? For areas just north of me.

And yes I agree, this pattern is very boring, really no rain or nothing in my forecast the next 7-10 days.

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That cold spell the GFS has been persistent about next week is interesting. It's showing the cold front coming through KMSN early Tuesday, and brings us down to -3° C at 850 Thursday. Still a bit far out and things could easily change as the GFS gets a better handle on the pattern. Some of the energy in play for this won't be observed well for a couple days afterall since it's in the middle of the Pacific and/or Asia.

It's one of those things where I won't believe it until it's within 3 days since there's still so much sunlight across Canada that will modify this as it comes south. It's going to have to come down fast to avoid too much moderation.

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