12z model disc.

[vortmax]

An interesting tidbit from the HPC...

THERE IS A DISCONCERTINGLY EVEN DIVIDE IN THE GUIDANCE AS

TO THE LATITUDE ALONG WHICH THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC CYCLONE CROSSING

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES TRACKS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE SPLIT INCLUDES BOTH DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND INDIVIDUAL

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS. THE 00Z ECMWF

REPRESENTS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE 00Z GFS

TAKING UP THE SOUTH SIDE. THE GEM GLOBAL SIDES WITH THE

ECMWF...WITH THE UKMET CLOSER TO THE GFS. THE GEFS MEAN...ECENS

MEAN...AND CMCE MEAN ALL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH THE

INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS COMPRISING THE MEANS STRUNG OUT

ALONG...NORTH...AND SOUTH OF THE TRACKS OF THE MEAN SURFACE LOWS.

SUCH A ROBUSTLY EVEN DIVISION IN THE SOLUTIONS ESSENTIALLY

NECESSITATES USING A MEAN TO CREATE THE MANUAL PROGS...

UNFORTUNATELY...THE BALANCE OF THE MODELS HAS NOT CHANGED WITH THE

12Z CYCLE.

Sound like the models are evenly divided...

[HM]

The setup coming up reminds me of 11/30-12/1 where a huge storm cut inland and helped tank the NAO. The only difference this time is that there doesn't appear to be a building +PNA while this is ongoing but a building rPNA. But, we've seen this same looking model solution before. A true pattern!

[mitchnick]

The setup coming up reminds me of 11/30-12/1 where a huge storm cut inland and helped tank the NAO. The only difference this time is that there doesn't appear to be a building +PNA while this is ongoing but a building rPNA. But, we've seen this same looking model solution before. A true pattern!

that's not good, and that's for sure considering what the coastal plain got out of it

[HM]

that's not good, and that's for sure considering what the coastal plain got out of it

It's pretty telling that the GGEM/ECMWF are well inland, IMO. Like I said earlier in the thread, there is nothing to stop this thing from amplifying inland other than its own internal dynamics. All the ridge in the West is going to do is make sure the thing digs. There is no upstream blocking of significance and east-based might as well be "no based" IMO.

[Dino]

It's pretty telling that the GGEM/ECMWF are well inland, IMO. Like I said earlier in the thread, there is nothing to stop this thing from amplifying inland other than its own internal dynamics. All the ridge in the West is going to do is make sure the thing digs. There is no upstream blocking of significance and east-based might as well be "no based" IMO.

But why do these models depict so MUCH amplification? It just seems overkill for being so far inland.

[ptb127]

Does this show the initial low cutting up well to the west and a second low popping off the NJ Coast? Would that be a decent setup for the interior?

[NJwinter23]

The setup coming up reminds me of 11/30-12/1 where a huge storm cut inland and helped tank the NAO. The only difference this time is that there doesn't appear to be a building +PNA while this is ongoing but a building rPNA. But, we've seen this same looking model solution before. A true pattern!

I was thinking the same thing especially when looking at the euro model solutions for this upcoming storm. It even has that same look with the weak secondary frontal low developing along the cold front just like 11/30-12/1. Definitely the signs of a cold/dry, warm lakes cutter, cold/dry, warm lakes cutter pattern since Thanksgiving.

[HM]

But why do these models depict so MUCH amplification? It just seems overkill for being so far inland.

This wave has the room to amplify and the dynamics to do so. The squashing PV will lift out swiftly to allow this s/w to freely amplify. If you wish to get into the actual dynamics, we can, but this is the shorter answer.

So, this isn't overkill. It actually makes perfect sense for this to track inland.

[Amped]

Anyone concerned about grrenland Melting?

Later a transpolar ridge forms, but most of the cold is directed at Europe.

[mitchnick]

This wave has the room to amplify and the dynamics to do so. The squashing PV will lift out swiftly to allow this s/w to freely amplify. If you wish to get into the actual dynamics, we can, but this is the shorter answer.

So, this isn't overkill. It actually makes perfect sense for this to track inland.

whatever happened to chaos when you need it?

[Atlas]

Does this show the initial low cutting up well to the west and a second low popping off the NJ Coast? Would that be a decent setup for the interior?

No...The low is way ahead of the front. There might be a lot of LES.