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September 1st and Beyond Severe Thread


andyhb

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ya just moved back to the region for school. living on the 9th floor, the lighting show is pretty good with some low rumbles of thunder thrown in there. I was very surprised EC didnt pull the trigger and issue warnings with the earlier cell, that was one of the best wind storms i have seen in a long time.

That storm was one for the books. No thunder and it came up so fast... the whole city turned black and everything started to fly away. This new storm is just hitting us now. Looks like it's going to smack Cambridge -- what else is new? Not like they just had a tornado... then heavy damage from today's storm. :whistle:

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My third T'storm Warning of the day, this time in Warren. Very gusty winds, probably 50+mph. Had some pea size hail. My backyard swing completely flipped over. Lost Power for a minute. Tree down in my neighbor's yard. Torrential winds, and very frequent lightning and thunder.

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Rocking afternoon on the college football front - on ABC national tv from Ann Arbor, they called a 30 minute lightning delay and pulled teams into the locker rooms. Many fans still milling about the stands although apparently the official word was that people's cars would be the best shelter. That particular cell is very small and non-severe and it appeared to be getting sunny even as the teams were still straggling into the tunnels. On that broadcast they said lightning within 20-25 miles was enough to halt play. If you tune in now, they just temporarily switched to the Minnesota - USC game.

Meanwhile on NBC, the USF-ND game from South Bend appears to be getting a solid storm that has resulted in the first ever "lightning evacuation" of Notre Dame Stadium. This also from a non-severe and localized cell. However, there is a very impressive severe warned complex moving at them, with warnings currently out for LaPorte (IN) and Berrien (MI) counties. That appears to be on the way to South Bend. They are still broadcasting from that game and just had an awesome CG come down very close to the stadium. The broadcast team jumped in their seats with the crack of thunder caught live. Amazing to see that stadium clear out that quick.

Will be interesting to see how both teams at South Bend respond, especially considering what will be lengthy delay and that the Irish are being upset 16-0 going into the 3rd quarter.

One would think the stadium staff would have heeded what happened three weeks ago tonight in Indy--in terms of emphasizing the need in a stadium/grandstand situation about the need to get fans to safety.

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Possible "mini tornado" late yesterday afternoon at the Lake Camelot subdivision about 10 miles WSW of downtown Peoria, IL, or just a severe thunderstorm or "gustnado"? That's the question the Peoria Journal-Star is wondering in its article (with photos) on yesterday's storms in their part of central Illinois--while Springfield as usual gets little if any rain in most of the city (other than the south part/Southern View which truncated my evening park walk). You make the call:

http://www.pjstar.com/news/x219198662/Severe-storm-downs-utility-poles-in-Lake-Camelot

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Two videos of the immediate aftermath of the storm yesterday afternoon at the Farmers Market just up the road.

We've had some mighty storms come through here, but his one takes the cake for damage produced in recent memory. I've seen trees down around here, but nothing like the damage from yesterdays storm. Still got flower petals stuck to the windows. Actually have found leaves deep inside the house after the screen on the front door ripped open. Didn't expect such a small storm to produce such severe damage.

The trailer park down the street got hit bad, too. Was actually just out there looking to buy a trailer just a few away from a trailer that was destroyed. The poor lady inside dove in her bathtub before the trailer fell apart.

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After driving around my neighborhood in Warren (10/Ryan area), there were large branches down everywhere and a few uprooted medium-large sized trees. Many areas were without power, including my house for a couple hours this afternoon, as there were many power lines down. Winds highly likely reached severe limits.

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EC was unable to confirm a tornado in my backyard. 60 mph winds confirmed. The cell was so tiny. Picture below of the storm as it was approaching. Was not expecting the tropical storm to hurricane-like conditions so I put the cam away. There was no warning issued, but there were three of us CANWARN spotters in the storm. I'm not too sure if the other two spotters called in, but I don't think EC trusted my report of 55-65mph winds.

A house up the street had their picture window blow in. Must have been a decent sized projectile to do that.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TRIGGERED A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH RACED SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WATERLOO REGION TO THE TORONTO AREA. THERE WERE A NUMBER OF REPORTS
OF STRONG WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AS THE FAST MOVING STORMS RACED THROUGH.
THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF DAMAGE ACROSS WATERLOO REGION.

ANALYSIS OF DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND A NUMBER OF DAMAGE PHOTOS
STRONGLY SUGGEST THE DAMAGE ACROSS THE KITCHENER - WATERLOO AREA
INCLUDING THE ST. JACOBS FARMERS MARKET WAS CAUSED BY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 100 KM/H.  THIS ASSESSMENT OF STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS HAS BEEN CONFIRMED FOR THE KITCHENER - WATERLOO AREA BY AN
ENVIRONMENT CANADA INVESTIGATOR.

post-277-0-14039200-1315314633.png

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EC was unable to confirm a tornado in my backyard. 60 mph winds confirmed. The cell was so tiny. Picture below of the storm as it was approaching. Was not expecting the tropical storm to hurricane-like conditions so I put the cam away. There was no warning issued, but there were three of us CANWARN spotters in the storm. I'm not too sure if the other two spotters called in, but I don't think EC trusted my report of 55-65mph winds.

A house up the street had their picture window blow in. Must have been a decent sized projectile to do that.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TRIGGERED A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH RACED SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WATERLOO REGION TO THE TORONTO AREA. THERE WERE A NUMBER OF REPORTS
OF STRONG WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AS THE FAST MOVING STORMS RACED THROUGH.
THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF DAMAGE ACROSS WATERLOO REGION.

ANALYSIS OF DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND A NUMBER OF DAMAGE PHOTOS
STRONGLY SUGGEST THE DAMAGE ACROSS THE KITCHENER - WATERLOO AREA
INCLUDING THE ST. JACOBS FARMERS MARKET WAS CAUSED BY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 100 KM/H.  THIS ASSESSMENT OF STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS HAS BEEN CONFIRMED FOR THE KITCHENER - WATERLOO AREA BY AN
ENVIRONMENT CANADA INVESTIGATOR.

post-277-0-14039200-1315314633.png

Man, you've been hammered this summer. Must be one of your most memorable storm years.

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Man, you've been hammered this summer. Must be one of your most memorable storm years.

We've had a few good years with the odd supercell, a summer derecho, etc. But, nothing like this year. Storms have been scarce since 2009. But what we're lacking in quantity we're making up in quality, especially this year. I also think it's funny that our best storms this year have occurred in SPC "see text" risks. Most of our SLGT's and all our MDT's have busted big time in 2011. Even the Goderich tornado, F3, and the SPC storm risk was in NY. What a year, eh. If it's not runaway supercells, it's damaging MCS's, or even tiny little rain cells hurricane-ing everywhere! I've lost track of all our damaging storms in 2011.

My only complaint is I haven't pulled my cam out to capture the awesome-ness.

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Tuesday / Wednesday has the potential for a couple severe events around the GL. ATM it looks meager but its worth mentioning. Fall events always seem to surprise on the upside..One heck of a cold front it appears.

SPC Con Outlook...

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY/DAY 4. THE MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EWD INTO THE SERN STATES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ESEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY/DAY 5. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE MID-MO AND UPPER-MS VALLEYS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ON TUESDAY/DAY 6...THE MODELS MOVE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ESEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY WHERE A CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY/DAY 7...THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS DRIVING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD INTO THE NERN STATES WHILE THE ECMWF BROADENS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NCNTRL STATES EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE WEATHER PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS MAY RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NCNTRL STATES ON MONDAY AND IN THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY BUT THE CHANCE FOR AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. IN ADDITION...THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIKELY NOT VERY PREDICTABLE AT THIS RANGE SO WILL NOT ADD A SEVERE THREAT AREA.

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