cyclone77 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Could it affect storm motion though? Might the cell start to turn more easterly? The latest MCD seemed to indicate the severe potential overnight being further south than the region the cell appears to be heading toward. It's possible but I have my doubts. The stronger cells all seem to be west/northwest of the outflow boundaries, so they're essentially cut off from the better boundary layer inflow. I think that should keep them moving more east-northeasterly as opposed to east or east-southeasterly. Also, effective bulk shear values really drop off southeast of where the ongoing storms are. The LL wind fields over eastern Iowa look pretty paltry as well. I think the storms will continue trekking more north of due east for most of the night unless something much better organizes. We would need some serious cold pool generation to get the storms much further southeast of where they're currently trekking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Looks like the cell over far northeastern Iowa is closer to the outflow boundary now, so it looks like it's growing upscale/forward propagating now. Should mean a pretty decent wind threat over southwestern Wisconsin over the next hour or two if the trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Looks like the cell over far northeastern Iowa is closer to the outflow boundary now, so it looks like it's growing upscale/forward propagating now. Should mean a pretty decent wind threat over southwestern Wisconsin over the next hour or two if the trend continues. Maybe that's why the severe thunderstorm watch was issued over the southern tier of counties in WI. That said, I am going to have to be skeptical that we will get anything until I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 It's possible but I have my doubts. The stronger cells all seem to be west/northwest of the outflow boundaries, so they're essentially cut off from the better boundary layer inflow. I think that should keep them moving more east-northeasterly as opposed to east or east-southeasterly. Also, effective bulk shear values really drop off southeast of where the ongoing storms are. The LL wind fields over eastern Iowa look pretty paltry as well. I think the storms will continue trekking more north of due east for most of the night unless something much better organizes. We would need some serious cold pool generation to get the storms much further southeast of where they're currently trekking. we *might* get that with the further north and east complex going into WI but most of it is still behind the OFB and getting new storm generation to the immediate south due in part of the boundary and it won't happen with the stuff east of DSM (good cold pool that is). I was kind of suprised they issued the blue box for the counties in northern IL, unless stuff develops further south overnight which it doesn't look like right now. Tomorrow afternoon/evening will be our time here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 we *might* get that with the further north and east complex going into WI but most of it is still behind the OFB and getting new storm generation to the immediate south due in part of the boundary and it won't happen with the stuff east of DSM (good cold pool that is). I was kind of suprised they issued the blue box for the counties in northern IL, unless stuff develops further south overnight. Yeah it was surprising. The good ingredients really drop off south of highway 20 due to lack of mid and upper support. The instability is about the only thing decent in place, but the evening inversion kills that though lol. Everything settles a little further southward tomorrow so hopefully we can get something decent along the I-80 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Yeah it was surprising. The good ingredients really drop off south of highway 20 due to lack of mid and upper support. The instability is about the only thing decent in place, but the evening inversion kills that though lol Everything settles a little further southward tomorrow so hopefully we can get something decent along the I-80 corridor. Ya the moisture and instability are there but crappy mid-level winds and no good LLJ isn't helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Have a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for a cell ahead of the main line. Thunder/lighting increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 No shocker that last night didn't deliver imby, tonight looks much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Well, this has been a pretty active couple of days for severe weather in WI already, with another round possible tonight. Good thing we got some rain with that severe line earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Storm #3 about to roll through, which is the most likely to be severe. Thunder/lightning on and off for over an hour now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Storm #3 about to roll through, which is the most likely to be severe. Thunder/lightning on and off for over an hour now. Getting more action up there already then you got back in macomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Here's a video shot from my dorm of the warned line of storms moving through: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Good morning! SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 10:42 AM EDT SATURDAY 3 SEPTEMBER 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR: =NEW= ELGIN COUNTY =NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX COUNTY =NEW= SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK =NEW= OXFORD COUNTY - BRANT COUNTY =NEW= HURON COUNTY - PERTH COUNTY =NEW= WATERLOO REGION - WELLINGTON COUNTY WINDSOR - ESSEX COUNTY - CHATHAM-KENT SARNIA - LAMBTON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.. THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS OR HEAVY RAINFALL..MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR UPDATED BULLETINS. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER THESE REGIONS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ENERGY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE ABOVE REGIONS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Here's a video shot from my dorm of the warned line of storms moving through: Sucks to be those people who were running from the parking lot at the very end, I bet they got a little soaked lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Well, this has been a pretty active couple of days for severe weather in WI already, with another round possible tonight. Good thing we got some rain with that severe line earlier this morning. whopping .18" Most for a day so far since july 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 whopping .18" Most for a day so far since july 28th. I have been forced to lower my standards given how the summer has gone since July (especially in August). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 the storms look pretty crappy right now.. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2107 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL INTO SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 031724Z - 031830Z THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. THE RE-DEVELOPMENT AND/OR RE-INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ALONG AN EWD-SURGING...RESIDUAL GUST FRONT FROM NEAR MKE SWWD TO JUST SW OF MLI. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS OF 65-70 F WITHIN IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS RESULTING IN A WEAKENING CAP WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL VAD/PROFILER DATA INDICATE THAT DISCUSSION AREA RESIDES ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD /AND RESULTANT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/ ATTENDANT TO PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BUT...GIVEN THE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AND STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME RISK FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST AS STORMS PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE REGION. ..MEAD.. 09/03/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 We're just leaving a diurnal slow period and building instability, the line is worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Great meso update from LOT, u all know where to find it, needless to say explosive was dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Southern Lower Michigan is slowly becoming a loaded gun for latter this evening. Under a monster Cap ATM allowing us to bake in the sun for hours. CAPE should surge upwards into the 2000-3000 area. Shear is kinda Meh, still wouldn't rule out a few weak supercells that blow up in front of the main show. ...But regardless most def looking forward to a solid light show latter this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Great meso update from LOT, u all know where to find it, needless to say explosive was dropped. Only if storms fire before the MCS arrives in the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Only if storms fire before the MCS arrives in the metro area. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 HRRR actually painting a layer of MUCAPE in excess of 4000 for the DTW area. We seriously have to break this Cap latter. The air is "electric" for lack of a better word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 the storms look pretty crappy right now.. Expect them to stay that way... Around and south of I-80 is the place to be, though that's not saying much either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 ? If the area of convection moving through S Wisconsin into NC Illinois arrives before individual storms have a chance to fire, I don't think anyone in the Lower Great Lakes will be seeing severe storms, unless the line forming in Minnesota holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The storm that developed on the subtle boundary/wind shift near rt 34 went up very quickly and now severe warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Towers shooting up overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The cell just NE of Joliet looks like a beast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Towers shooting up overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Those Chicago cells went up really fast. Awesome show of how boundaries can ignite shat out of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.