andyhb Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 New discussion for upcoming severe threats as we move out of August into September, starting with the new Day 4-8 outlook. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2011 VALID 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. BOTH SUGGEST A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LIKELY PROVIDING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NECESSARY FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS ERN MT/ND WEDNESDAY THEN ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE MAY BE NOTED. SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE THREAT WOULD THEN ADVANCE ACROSS ND INTO MN ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT INCLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK ACROSS THIS REGION AS TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH COULD BE DELAYED...OR WARM SECTOR CAPPING/INSTABILITY COULD PROVE DETRIMENT FOR PRE-FRONTAL SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 08/28/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Yea. Parts of the Lakes regions could rock and roll over Labor Day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 nice potent wave shown on the 12z GFS for next saturday up in the northern plains into MN and good instability around here thurs-saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 SD/ND could have some interesting stuff on weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 29, 2011 Author Share Posted August 29, 2011 Here we go, day 4-8. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2011 VALID 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST ON THURSDAY/D4. BETWEEN LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS AND EURO MODELS...THERE ARE SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE UPPER TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS DURING D4 AND INTO D5/FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THESE DIFFERENCES ARE RELATIVELY MINOR WITH THE EURO BEING CHARACTERISTICALLY SLOWER BY ABOUT 12H. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE SPEED/TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THE MODELS...THE DEEP-LAYER FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW LEVEL JET CONFIGURATION APPEAR VERY SIMILAR OVER THE PLAINS AND SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND BECOME FOCUSED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND ON THE NOSE OF LLJ IN THE FORM OF AN MCS. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR INDICATE THAT SEVERE WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM NERN NEB INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SCENARIO MAY EVOLVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...OR THE GREATER POTENTIAL MAY COME ABOUT LATE IN THE D4 PERIOD AND CONTINUE INTO D5/FRIDAY. AT PRESENT...WILL OTLK D4 ONLY WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASING THEREAFTER. ..CARBIN.. 08/29/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 thursday is going to have potential but looking at the 18z NAM, it would be up in northern MN on the edge of the EML and where the good mid-level flow intersects the LLJ. quite the EML for september Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 New day 4-8 hinting at something more potentially substantial past this oncoming trough. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2011 VALID 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... NUMERICAL MODELS PRESENT CHALLENGES IN THE D4 THROUGH D8 PERIOD....FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF UPPER AIR PATTERN AND RESULTING WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE MODELS REVIEWED FOR THIS FORECAST REMAINS LOW. THIS INTRODUCES ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TO BE WARY OF OUTLINING DAILY SEVERE WEATHER AREAS FROM D5 AND BEYOND. A LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY WHILE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON D4/FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO MIDWEST ON DAYS 5-6/SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE CORRIDOR OF VERY WARM AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE PLAINS EAST TO THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...QUESTIONS REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING...CAPPING/INHIBITION...AND STRENGTH OF FLOW/SHEAR PRECLUDE DELINEATING A REGION MORE PRONE TO NUMEROUS ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS STAGE. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM COAST TO COAST ACROSS THE SRN U.S. IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE INFLUENCED AND POSSIBLY WEAKENED/SPLIT BY A DISTURBANCE EVOLVING ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND WHAT INFLUENCE IT MAY HAVE ON THE FRONT/TROUGH ACTING TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH. ..CARBIN.. 08/30/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 The AFDs around the region are starting to squawk about the potential.. GRR AFTER A VERY HOT DAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF EXPECTED WEAK UPPER FORCING...WE BELIEVE THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS QUITE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS MLCAPE MAY REMAIN QUITE HIGH / 1500+ J PER KG / AFTER DARK. THIS IS ASSUMING A DEEP RESIDUAL MIXED LAYER...WHICH FREQUENTLY BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED AFTER A SERIES OF DAYS WITH STRONG INSOLATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 NWS Lincoln also hinting at the threat of strong/severe storms during the weekend in their latest Forecast Discussion: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ILX&issuedby=ILX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 LOT has mentioned strong/severe storms for the late weekend in the last few AFD's but will worry about that threat when we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 Interesting... DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0416 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2011 VALID 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... RELATIVE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REVIEWED FOR THIS FORECAST SUGGEST SOMEWHAT HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION ON D4/SATURDAY INTO D5/SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND RESULTING LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS WARMING AND MOIST AIRMASS. THE AREA DEPICTED FOR D4 IS THE REGION WHERE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SUGGESTS THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE QPF WILL COINCIDE WITH A MEAN MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SOMEWHAT STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER WLYS ALOFT. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY THAT SEGMENT INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE AND SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTMS. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER FLOW ACROSS THESE AREAS IS MORE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT A RISK AREA AT THIS TIME. BEYOND D4...A WIDE DISPARITY IN MODEL SCENARIOS BEGINS TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY WITH EVOLUTION OF GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE FORECASTS...UNCERTAINTY IN SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IS HIGH. HOWEVER...LARGER SCALE PATTERN DEPICTED IN THE 00Z NCEP MREF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE EVOLVING PATTERN WILL GENERALLY ACT TO SUPPRESS SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. ..CARBIN.. 08/31/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 liked northern MN the other day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Looking forward to a nice elevated MCS overnight here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 nice looking hodograph west of Duluth tomorrow evening off the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Looking forward to a nice elevated MCS overnight here. good luck R.M. of Rhineland including Altona Plum Coulee and Gretna 1:49 AM CDT Thursday 01 September 2011 Severe thunderstorm warning for R.M. of Rhineland including Altona Plum Coulee and Gretna issued At 1:45 AM weather radar is showing a line of severe thunderstorms centred over Brandon extending southward into North Dakota. Wind gusts to 100 km/h, rainfall in excess of 50 mm, intense lightning and loonie-sized hail are possible with the stronger cells located in this line of intense thunderstorms. The thunderstorms are travelling eastward at approximately 70 km/h and will begin to affect the Morden/Winkler area within the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 decent supercell way up north in MN, northeast of the town of Orr. I actually went on a fishing trip around there a couple summers ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Good morning La Crosse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Lord, that's some big hail! SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 11:28 AM EDT FRIDAY 2 SEPTEMBER 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR: MANITOUWADGE - HORNEPAYNE WHITE RIVER - DUBREUILVILLE KAPUSKASING - HEARST - SMOOTH ROCK FALLS FRASERDALE - PLEDGER LAKE LITTLE ABITIBI - KESAGAMI LAKE. WEATHER RADAR AT 10:50 AM EDT INDICATED AN AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM FORT ALBANY SOUTH TO KAPUSKASING AND WEST TO WHITE RIVER. STORM MOTION IS TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 75 KM/H. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 50 MILLIMETRES AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 90 KM/H ARE ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 late this evening.. tomorrow evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 late this evening.. tomorrow evening.. After missing virtually all of this morning's MCS, some showers and thunderstorms would be welcomed, even if they are not particularly strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 FWIW the 14/15z runs of the HRRR develop a line of storms from Kenosha to Clinton and pushes it southeast but weakening and then more storms firing after that from Dixon to southern IA....then weaken moving east, the another complex develops ENE of DSM (the most impressive complex this run) and move it east. Basically, I get screwed here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Q FWIW the 14/15z runs of the HRRR develop a line of storms from Kenosha to Clinton and pushes it southeast but weakening and then more storms firing after that from Dixon to southern IA....then weaken moving east, the another complex develops ENE of DSM (the most impressive complex this run) and move it east. Basically, I get screwed here lol Not seeing anything to push things into our area until tomorrow aft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 HRRR looks promising for around here, with training around the I94 corridor from Madison to Milwaukee and points just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2097 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB THROUGH CNTRL IA INTO SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 021941Z - 022115Z THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL VAD/PROFILER DATA INDICATE THAT DEEPER-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM NERN WI SWWD THROUGH SWRN MN INTO S-CNTRL NEB...WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OBSERVED ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THOUGH DENSER CLOUDINESS HAS PERSISTED INVOF SYNOPTIC FRONT...THE CORRIDOR FROM E-CNTRL NEB EWD THROUGH CNTRL IA INTO NRN IL HAS EXPERIENCED COMPARABLY STRONGER INSOLATION. HERE...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE COMBINED WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD MLCAPE OF 2000-3500 J/KG AND A WEAKENING CAP. LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...CASTING UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE AND WHEN SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP. ONE POSSIBLE LOCATION IS ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM E OF FOD SWWD TO NEAR OMA WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES INDICATE SOME DEEPENING CUMULUS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED...THE PRESENCE OF 30-35 KT WLY WINDS IN THE MIDLEVELS ATOP WEAK SELY/ELY SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM MODES /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..MEAD.. 09/02/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 824 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IOWA EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1025 PM UNTIL 400 AM CDT. HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST OF DES MOINES IOWA TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...THERE WILL BE SOME RISK FOR THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING INTO W CENTRAL/CENTRAL IA TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE DCAPE/MODERATE CAPE...AS WELL AS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. THE UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND RATHER MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE WSW-ENE SURFACE FRONT IN IA. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2101 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...IA TO FAR SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 824... VALID 030456Z - 030630Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 824 CONTINUES. SEVERE TSTM WATCH 824 CONTINUES UNTIL 09Z...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. A SEVERE THREAT COULD SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL OVERNIGHT...AND A WATCH MAY BE NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR THESE AREAS. TWO RELATIVELY DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO STEADILY SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...ONE NEAR THE WATERLOO AREA IN ADDITION TO ANOTHER NEAR THE DES MOINES/AMES VICINITIES AS OF 0445Z. IN FACT...A 51 KT WIND GUST WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT WATERLOO IA. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CORRIDOR NEAR/JUST NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT...WHERE A FAVORABLE COLLOCATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR/MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE EXISTS. WHILE THE LONGEVITY OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN FACTORS SUCH AS INCREASING NEAR-SURFACE CINH...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND EXISTING ORGANIZATION OF THESE STORMS MAY ALLOW AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GUYER.. 09/03/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Looks like there might be a little appendage on the severe cell in NE Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Looks like there might be a little appendage on the severe cell in NE Iowa. Yep. It looks like it's well behind the outflow though so it shouldn't be a tornadic threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Yep. It looks like it's well behind the outflow though so it shouldn't be a tornadic threat. Could it affect storm motion though? Might the cell start to turn more easterly? The latest MCD seemed to indicate the severe potential overnight being further south than the region the cell appears to be heading toward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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